US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.18.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Oct 182012

10/18/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 1.3
Actual: 5.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.11
1st Peak @ 91.21 – 0402 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 90.71 – 0409 (9 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report barely exceeded the forecast, causing a nearly dull reaction of 10 ticks. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 91.18 then hovered 2-3 ticks on either side of your fill. With the 100 SMA containing it above, it could go no higher than 91.21. Close out around breakeven before it reverses. The reversal took over strongly on the :02 bar, crossing the 50 SMA and the S2 Pivot, eventually yielding 50 ticks about 8 min to nearly match the low achieved about 1 hr earlier.

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 10.18.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 182012

10/18/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 46B
Actual: 51B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.459
1st Peak @ 3.401 – 0431 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 3.521 – 0457 (27 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Greater gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a short spike of 58 ticks that could not sustain its drop. Crossing the S1 Pivot and the LOD was too much to sustain, so it rebounded upward and reversed for 120 ticks to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, then peak at the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.430. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks where it hovered around the S1 Pivot at 3.419 for several seconds before reversing. If you had not closed out, you would have seen it slowly march toward your stop loss. Do not be a lemming going off the cliff in a case like that…close out before your profit is erased and turned into a loss.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.18.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 182012

10/18/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 388K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.15
1st Peak @ 92.05 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.84 – 0236 (6 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 92.18 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 21K jobs. This was partly anticipated due to the artificially low report from the previous week which excluded California. Since the market was already bearish in the very short term, the initial spike was small, but the next few bars made up for it to deliver 31 ticks total. With JOBB, you would have filled at about 92.08 with no slippage, then seen it hover just below your fill for the rest of the bar. You could play it conservatively and close out with a tick or 2, or check the result, and patiently wait for a larger reaction due to the disappointing result. The S1 Pivot is a convenient target, so set your buy limit there. The reversal was able to bounce back for 34 ticks in about 7 min.

CL 11 12 (1 Min) 10.17.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 172012

10/17/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.4M
Actual: 2.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 92.57
1st Peak @ 92.40 – 0431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.65 – 0431 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.55 – 0511 (41 min)
102 ticks

Reversal to 92.07 – 0540 (70 min)
52 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused slow developing short reaction that had to contend with the SMAs. Initially the short reaction could not challenge the 200 SMA and retreated upward. The second attempt was successful and triggered a fan for a 40 min selloff. Unfortunately with JOBB, you would have filled short at about 92.47, then gotten stopped out when it retreated up to 92.65. The selling impetus was not initially strong enough to punch through the 200 SMA. If you had been quick, I would advise moving the stop loss a few ticks higher to above the 50 SMA, then you would have been safe to ride the heat and catch the profit on the delayed short move. The 2nd peak claimed over 100 ticks in 41 min to bottom out just above the S1 Pivot, then the reversal retreated upward for 52 ticks in 30 min crossing the PP Pivot and the 50 SMA, but unable to reach the 100 SMA.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.15.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 152012

10/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.26
1st Peak @ 92.43 – 0231 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 92.11 – 0243 (13 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly positive on both the core and actual reading including an upward revision on the previous readings. Empire State manufacturing broke at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market had just hit the HOD and was in a bearish correction, the long spike was relatively small and could not go above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 92.34 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to close out with a handful of ticks just below the 50 SMA where it hovered. The bearish sentiment and the negative Empire State report caused the reversal to take over quickly and make a short move to the 200 SMA 10 min later for 32 ticks.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 738.00 – 0229
1st Peak @ 763.25 – 0232 (3 min)
101 ticks

2nd Peak @ 772.50 – 0235 (6 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 756.25 – 0241 (11 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a large long spike of 101 ticks over 3 min, crossing no SMAs, but the R1 – R3 Pivots. It encountered the first resistance at the R3 Pivot, struggling in that area from the end of the :31 bar to the :34 bar. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 22 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 740.00 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 80 ticks as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot on the :31 bar. It achieved a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks on the :35 bar, then reversed for 65 ticks in the next 6 min, eclipsing the 13 SMA. This is the biggest move yet.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.90/2.7
Actual: 2.90/2.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’21 (0701)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0706 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 0743 (42 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield was the same as the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. The bid to cover ratio was slightly lower meaning less bids were made than last month. With JOBB you would fill short at 148’17 just below the 100 SMA. I set my buy limit just below the 200 SMA and PP Pivot at 148’11, which filled as it bottomed out at 148’09 on the :06 bar. With the small deviation from the previous result, I did not expect much of a short move. Then the reversal yielded a strong 31 ticks in 37 min, rebounding through all 3 major SMAs and peaking at the R1 Pivot.

NG 11 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 72B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.511
1st Peak @ 3.592 – 0431 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 3.568 – 0433 (3 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.628 – 0507 (37 min)
117 ticks

Reversal to 3.557 – 0635 (125 min)
71 ticks

Notes: Lesser gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a large long spike of 81 ticks. The initial spike crossed the R1 and R2 Pivots with ease. After a small reversal of 24 ticks, it geared up for a 2nd peak of 117 ticks total over 30 min later. The reversal reclaimed 71 ticks in about 90 min crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, then bottoming out at the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled at about 3.550 with about 30 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 30 ticks as it methodically rose and stayed near the top of the bar.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 10.11.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Oct 112012

10/11/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 1.3M
Actual: 1.7M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 92.48
1st Peak @ 92.64 – 0501 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 92.30 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.73 – 0516 (16 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 91.79 – 0552 (52 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a lesser gain was expected caused a relatively dull reaction for a long spike of 16 ticks in 1 min. With a result not much different than the forecast the reaction was trapped between the 50 SMA on the high side and the 100/200 SMAs on the low side. After the initial spike, we saw alternating bars with tails and wicks test these areas. The 2nd peak was briefly able to achieve 25 ticks, then the reversal eventually fell for 94 ticks. With JOBB, you would not have filled until 23 sec into the :01 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. If you stayed the course, you would have filled long at 92.58 with no slippage, then had a brief opportunity to close out with about 2-3 ticks as it hovered for about 10 sec above the 50 SMA before retreating.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 10.10.12

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 102012

10/10/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.90/2.7
Actual: 2.90/2.5
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’21 (0701)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0706 (5 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 0743 (42 min)
31 ticks

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