US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.31.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Aug 312012

8/31/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.93
Peak @ 96.14 – 0401 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reverse to 94.91 – 0408 (8 min)
123 ticks

Recover up to 96.04 – 0422 (22 min)
113 ticks

Notes: Factory Orders broke at the same time and resulted in the biggest rise in a year. This caused the the long spike of 21 ticks on the :01 bar. The spike crossed the 100 SMA and then hit resistance just below the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA causing it to bounce lower. As the speech was being delivered to the Economic symposium, the perception was initially hawkish as the dollar rallied and stimulus was downplayed. This caused the CL to selloff. Then after 10 min, the perception changed resulting in the dollar falling and oil rallying. If factory orders had not released at the same time, the market would have simply fallen for about 10 min, then rebounded without the long spike on the :01 bar. Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).

NG 10 12 (1 Min) 08.30.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 302012

8/30/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 65B
Actual: 66B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.688
1st Peak @ 2.637 / Reverse to 2.697 / Settle @ 2.676 – 0431 (1 min)
-51 ticks / 60 ticks / -23 ticks

Reversal to 2.730 – 0440 (10 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report met the expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a strong double wicker on the :31 bar. It shorted 51 ticks in 1 sec, then reversed 60 ticks 30 sec later before dropping 23 ticks to settle at 2.676 as the :31 bar expired. With JOBB, after 20-25 ticks of slippage, you would have filled short at about 2.662, then seen it reverse and hover 3-10 ticks in the red for about 8 sec. Close out there with about 8 ticks loss to avoid the stop loss of 15+ ticks. The market was trading sideways before the report, yet all 3 major SMAs were below the market action. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot before bottoming out just above the S1 Pivot. The reversal eventually climbed above the 3 major SMAs and crossed the R1 Pivot to peak at 2.730.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.30.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 302012

8/30/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 370K
Actual: 374K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.58
1st Peak @ 95.28 – 0235 (5 min)
30 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.20 – 0238 (8 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 95.40 – 0248 (18 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by only 4K jobs. The market must have been in an overbought condition prior to the report to cause such a strong short reaction on a tepid report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.52 with minimal slippage. Since this report normally peaks on the :31 bar and all 3 major SMAs are acting as support, look to close out at or near the 50 SMA with 5-6 ticks. It continued lower for 30 ticks in 5 min and 38 ticks in 8 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs. Then it reversed to recover 20 ticks and got stuck between the 100 and 200 SMAs for several minutes.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.38 – 0803 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 95.25 – 0805/0808 (5/8 min)
13 ticks (2x bottom)

2nd Peak @ 95.66 – 0822 (22 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.33 – 0911/0914 (71/74 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Report was modestly positive overall showing gradual growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. The market was in a choppy pattern heading upward before the report broke, so it continued in that pattern to nearly reach the S1 Pivot at 95.66. Then the prospect of QE3 was dampened as the report was digested to be just positive enough to make it less necessary. So the dollar rallied, and the CL fell to the level at the origin of the report . Not a recommended report for JOBB, but the initial behavior would have been a dull reaction and cause for canceling the order.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.1M
Actual: 3.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.50
1st Peak @ 95.13 – 0432 (2 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 95.61 – 0437 (7 min)
48 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.76 – 0524 (54 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 95.29 – 0547 (77 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a small loss was expected caused a medium sized short spike for 37 ticks in 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.37, then had an opportunity to get at least 15 ticks or more with ease. The spike did not cross any of the major SMAs or Pivots. After the intial spike, it reversed for 48 ticks before stepping lower to a 2nd peak of 74 ticks in 54 min. Then it reversed for 53 ticks to eclipse the 100 SMA.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.28.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 282012

8/28/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 65.8
Actual: 60.6
Previous revision: -0.5 to 65.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 95.69
1st Peak @ 95.43 – 0402 (3 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 0413 (13 min)
68 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a choppy short spike over 3 minutes that fought through the PP Pivot to bottom out at 95.43. The market had sold off about 80 ticks in the previous 30 min, so all the major SMAs were above the market. The short term oversold sentiment and the strong support at and below the PP Pivot prevented the market from dropping any further. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 95.62, then had an opportunity to close at about 95.50 with at least 10-12 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 68 ticks in 11 minutes, fighting through all 3 major SMAs with ease. It finally hit resistance at the 200 SMA, unable to go above 96.11 in 3 bars on the first attempt.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.29.12

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Aug 292012

8/29/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.7%
Actual: 1.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 95.74
1st Peak@ 95.65 – 0232 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 96.05 – 0238 (8 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing an initial dull reaction for a short move of only 9 ticks in 2 min. The market had been trading sideways before the report with all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist below the market action, but the short spike hit the S1 Pivot. It was unable to drop to the 50 SMA, but if it had, it would have encountered strong support and bounced sharply upward. With JOBB, your order would not have filled in the first 15 sec, so cancel the order. After the initial drop, the market reversed for 40 ticks in 6 min to hit the PP Pivot, before retreating slowly. The bulls returned after the market was relieved that the GDP reading did not disappoint. Also notice the action after the pit open resembled the action after the report broke…a small short move followed by a bigger long rebound.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.24.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Aug 242012

8/24/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: -1.1% to -2.2%
Regular Forecast: 2.6%
Regular Actual: 4.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 96.07
Peak @ 96.01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report came in as a mixed bag. The more influential core reading came in worse than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This was offset by a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin that the core disappointed. This all resulted in traders seeing it as a wash and having no impetus to buy or sell. With JOBB you would never have seen the market get closer than 1 tick to your bracket with a 7 tick buffer. Following the guidance, cancel the order when it did not execute in 10-15 sec. You would have been safe in this case anyway until the :34 bar finally broke out of the tight trading range short. No SMAs influenced the trading, so the balance of information must have truly straddled the line of positive/negative.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.23.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 232012

8/23/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 365K
Actual: 372K
DULL REACTION then SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.84
1st Peak @ 97.79 / Reverse to 97.88 – 0233 (3 min)
-5 ticks / 4 ticks
Peak @ 97.45 – 0235 (5 min)
39 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.36 – 0301 (31 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 97.73 – 0318 (48 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by only 7K jobs. This small deviation did not cause a strong reaction initially as the market strayed only 5 ticks away from the origin. However as the gravity of the first reading in a month to be worse than 370K set in, the bears drove the market for a strong delayed 39 tick short move. With JOBB, you should have canceled due to the dull reaction with no fill in 10 sec. After the drop, it chopped sideways for 25 min, then achieved a smaller 2nd peak of 9 more ticks after the pit open before the reversal advanced to eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.23.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 232012

8/23/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 47B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.764
1st Peak @ 2.682 – 0431 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 2.730 – 0436 (6 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Larger than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a fairly large short spike on the :31 bar. With JOBB, after 20-25 ticks of slippage, you would still have an opportunity for 25-35 ticks of profit when it hovered at the 2.702 area. The market was already trending lower, so all 3 major SMAs were above the trade action. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot about halfway down its descent. 2.682 was a low tested on 8/16 and a firm area of support with no trading below the level happening since late June. The reversal gained 48 ticks in 5 min to find resistance in the area of the S2 Pivot. There is no clear opportunity for a secondary trade on this report, so play it safe and sit it out. After the reversal, the market did not stray too far from the area of the S2 Pivot, encountering resistance when the SMAs trended lower and support at the 2.720 area.

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