US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 072012

6/7/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 57B
Actual: 62B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.398
1st Peak @ 2.333 – 0431 (1 min)
65 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.304 – 0450 (20 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 2.324 – 0508 (38 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Small offset in the supply gain from the forecast caused a surprising large short spike and 2nd peak with a minimal reversal. The market must have been look for an excuse to sell off. No SMAs were crossed, but the S2 Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar path. The 2nd peak claimed another 29 ticks in about 20 min, and the reversal only achieved 20 ticks in 38 min before dropping again.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Jun 062012

6/6/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.14
1st Peak@ 84.93 – 0810 (10 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.75 – 0827 (27 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 85.23 – 0838 (38 min)
48 ticks (4x top)

Notes: Report was satisfactory overall showing moderate growth in most sectors, with modest or slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a downtrend before the report broke, it continued in that prevailing direction. At the release it closed the gap long up to the 13 SMA, but could not get any higher. Then it went sideways and fell. After bottoming out on the :27 bar, it reversed upward for 48 ticks then chopped sideways. With nothing overly positive or negative to solidify expectations of QE or other easing, the markets were tame. Not a good setup for JOBB, and no clear direction after 5 min.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 052012

6/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.87
1st Peak @ 84.19 – 0402 (2 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.36 – 0404 (4 min)
49 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 84.10 – 0406 (6 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This should have caused a dull reaction; however, the market made a strong long move due to the dollar dropping hard at the same time. This caused a spike of 23 ticks that was slightly delayed followed by a 2nd peak of 49 ticks. An accidental winner with JOBB, but it is okay to be lucky sometimes. The reversal yielded 26 ticks 2 min after the 2nd peak.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jun 042012

6/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -2.1%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 83.09
Peak @ 82.83 – 0402 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 83.13 – 0408 (8 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell well short of the forecast along with a large downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks in 2 minute that crossed no SMAs or Pivots and could not reach the 100 SMA. Given such a disappointing report, the selloff occurring in the 30 min prior to the report took many of the bears out of the market, so it was unwilling to drop more than 26 ticks. The reversal yielded 30 ticks after a double bottom made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak. Then inspite of the report the market rallied for another 60 ticks in the next 10 min reacting to the larger oversold sentiment.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 012012

6/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.0
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 83.76
1st Peak @ 83.64 / Reverse to 84.08 – 0401 (1 min)
-12 ticks / 32 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast causing indecision with a premature short spike then a strong long spike. Since this report followed negative news from Europe then a very disappointing US Employment report, and occurred on a Friday, the markets were jittery and thinly traded. When a nearly matching report resulted, it was a recipe for indecision. The 50 and 200 SMAs heavily influenced the market movement 20 min on either side of the report.

CL 07 12 (1 Range) 06.01.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 012012

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 012012

6/1/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 151K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 69K
Previous Revision: -38K to 77K
Rate Forecast: 8.1%
Rate Actual: 8.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.87
1st Peak @ 82.85 – 0231 (1 min)
102 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.56 – 0237 (7 min)
131 ticks

Reversal to 83.76 – 0308 (38 min)
120 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report across the board that fell short or the forecast with Jobs and the rate with a large downward revision to the previous report causing a healthy short spike and follow on 2nd peak. The market was already in a very bearish mood with the Euro-zone debt crisis, so after this news came out, things shifted into liquidation mode. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 83.80 and had an opportunity to close out with at least 60 ticks. The initial drop ran out of gas at the S3 Pivot, then the 2nd peak was able to dip lower for 29 more ticks briefly before the reversal took hold. The reversal yielded 120 ticks in about 30 min after the 2nd peak.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

Prelim GDP Comments Off

May 312012

5/31/2012 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.9%
Actual: 1.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.57
1st Peak@ 88.47 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 88.67 – 0234 (4 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.07 – 0246 (16 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 88.45 – 0300 (30 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, but was released at the same time as weekly unemployment claims which came in fairly negative. With a matching GDP reading, most of the attention was given to the unemployment claims. The market had been in a selling mood prior to the report, so all 3 major SMAs were above the action. This resulted in a small first peak of 10 ticks, a reversal, then a 2nd peak of 50 ticks that took about 10 min to pan out. This report was not recommended to trade with JOBB due to the combined release, but the 2nd peak would have been a good manual trade. When you see the :39 to :42 bars go sideways and fail to rise above the 13 SMA, that is a good entry for a short trade in the 88.58 area. I would exit on the 44 bar after 2 long red bars and the long tail developed for at least 30 ticks. Then the reversal rebounded for 38 ticks in 14 min to peak at the pit open.

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

NG Storage Comments Off

May 312012

5/31/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 75B
Actual: 71B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.421
1st Peak @ 2.436 / Reverse to 2.390 – 0431 (1 min)
15 ticks / -31 ticks

Reversal top at 2.440 – 0511 (41 min)
50 ticks

Notes: A nearly matching report caused indecision and a premature long spike of 15 ticks before seeing a drop of 31 ticks. After seeing the indecisive reaction and noting the near matching report, it would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. In this case, use the 200 as the floor of support and buy when it drops a few ticks under, then sell as it approaches or eclipse the 50 SMA. The long move at 0505 broke out of the report trend. If you sold at about 2.420 based on the peak earlier, use the PP Pivot at 2.428 as the stop loss setting and the pivot for a long move . When it broke long there, the market sentiment changed.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.31.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 312012

5/31/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: 0.2M
Actual: 2.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.62
1st Peak @ 86.38 – 0501 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.28 – 0506 (6 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 86.68 – 0510 (10 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Medium gain in supply and offset of the forecast caused a relatively small but safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market selling off dramatically before the report, all the SMAs were above the price action and the market was reluctant to go much lower. The 2nd peak tested the S2 Pivot before bouncing long into the reversal.

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