US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.29.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

May 292012

5/29/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 69.8
Actual: 64.9
Previous revision: -0.5 to 68.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.58
1st Peak @ 91.35 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 91.63 – 0407 (7 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction that had to fight through the 50 SMA before bouncing off of the PP Pivot making it unable to reach the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 91.50, then had an opportunity to close out with a 5-10 ticks of profit as it hovered between the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot. The reversal was able to climb back above the 50 SMA to almost eclipse the R1 Pivot.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

NG Storage Comments Off

May 242012

5/24/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 77B
Actual: 77B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.708
1st Peak @ 2.688 / Reverse to 2.742 – 0431 (1 min)
-20 ticks / 34 ticks

Reversal bottom at 2.664 – 0446
44 ticks

Notes: An exactly matching report, caused indecision and a double wicker of 54 ticks from top to bottom initially that spanned out to 80 ticks at its max. After seeing the double wicker and noting the matching report. It would be safe and reasonable to sell the peak and buy the dip as big oscillations will happen for about 1 hr. As it settles, the movement becomes closer to the centerline and the swings are lesser in magnitude.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.24.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 242012

5/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 1.1%
Core Actual:-0.6%
Previous revision:+0.3% to -0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual:0.2%
Previous Revision:+0.5% to -3.7%
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 90.62
Peak @ 90.40 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Retrace to 90.74 – 0238 (8 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report came in fairly negative overall with the current reports disappointing while the previous revisions were mildly positive. Report was released at the same time as the weekly unemployment claims, which came in matching at 370K. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots, but was engaged in a slow downtrend over the previous 90 min, so the oversold market was reluctant to go short much on the bearish news. With JOBB you would have filled short and had an opportunity to close out with about 10 ticks on the :32 bar. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 100, before pulling back.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.23.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 232012

5/23/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: 0.9M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.79
1st Peak @ 90.44 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 90.73 – 0435 (5 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.18 – 0450 (20 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 90.63 – 0456 (26 min)
45 ticks

Notes: Flat result overall as it matched the forecast and was near 0. With the market in a moderate downtrend prior to the report, the report essentially carried on with the trend. No SMAs were crossed, but the S1 Pivot provided resistance on the :30 and :31 bars to keep it from going long. With JOBB, you would have seen the long wick come near your stop, then back off. After no fill for 10 sec, close out. The drop did not occur until 30 sec into the :31 bar. This would have been safe, but after the initial dull reaction, the market has no predictable conviction. The 2nd Peak claimed another 26 ticks to end the overall downtrend. Then the reversal rose up to hit the 50 SMA.

NG 06 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

NG Storage Comments Off

May 172012

5/17/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 25B
Actual: 61B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.562
1st Peak @ 2.528 – 0432 (2 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.507 – 0513 (43 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 2.547 – 0556 (86 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed no major SMAs, but the S1 Pivot was at the origin of the :31 bar. With a decent gain in supply and large delta from the expected gain, the market was forced short for a prolonged period going for 2 lower peaks and failing to reverse and sustain a rebound for quite some time.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 172012

5/17/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 10.3
Actual:-5.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 93.59
1st Peak @ 93.15 – 0402 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 93.81 – 0411 (11 min)
66 ticks

Notes: Report fell strongly short of forecast causing a healthy 44 tick spike that sliced through the 200 SMA and PP Pivot with conviction about halfway on its downward path. SIcne the market had been in a downward trend for 1 hour prior to the report release, it bounced strongly for a 66 tick reversal in only 9 min that crossed all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot finding its nadir just above the 100 SMA.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 05.16.12

Industrial Production Comments Off

May 162012

Caption for 5.16:
5/16/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 1.1%
Previous revision: -0.6% to -0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 93.33
1st Peak @ 93.38 – 0316 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reverse to 93.26 – 0317 (2 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, but the previous report was largely revised downward. This caused a dull reaction and no more than 5 ticks move long and short from the origin initially. Close out JOBB after 10 seconds with no fill or decisive move.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.17.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 172012

5/17/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 368K
Actual: 370K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 93.58
1st Peak @ 93.40 – 0231 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 93.80 – 0239 (9 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Report came in basically matching the forecast. The market decided to short the news for 18 ticks finding support on the PP Pivot, then reverse for double the rebound of 40 ticks.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.16.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 162012

5/16/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 2.1M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 93.28
1st Peak @ 93.63 – 0431 (1 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.16 – 0446 (16 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 92.78 – 0509 (39 min)
138 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply and small offset of the forecast caused a relatively small initial spike. With the market in a slight up trend before the report, all the SMAs were below the price action. The initial spike was reined in by the crossing of the S1 Pivot halfway up to its peak. With JOBB you would have filled long. The peak of 93.63 was hit early in the candle, but it rose to that level again twice so a sell limit placed near the top of the wick would have filled. When the :32 bar did not drop significantly, it is going for a higher 2nd peak. The reversal fought through all the SMAs and the S1/S2 Pivots to make a double bottom 20 ticks below the S2 Pivot.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 05.15.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 152012

5/15/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual:0.1%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual:0.1%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 0.7%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.32
1st Peak @ 95.48 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.80 – 0239 (9 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 94.63 – 0315 (45 min)
117 ticks

Notes: Report was negative, falling short of the forecast across the board, but CPI and Empire State Manufacturing Index broke at the same time. CPI was flat, but the Empire reading was very strong, causing the small upward spike and 2nd peak that crossed the R1 Pivot for 16 and 48 ticks respectively. Then the negative results of the Retail Sales report took over on the strong reversal of 117 ticks. It fought through the R1 and PP Pivots along with all 3 major SMAs to find a bottom at 94.63, 24 ticks lower than the PP Pivot.

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