US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.02.12

May 022012

5/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -1.5%
Actual: -1.5%
Previous Revision:-0.2% to 1.1%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.74
Peak @ 105.82 – 0401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 105.47 – 0406 (6 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, but was overwhelmingly negative along with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a tiny spike of 8 ticks in 1 minute that crossed the 100 SMA at the origin. After hovering 2 ticks on either side of the JOBB long entry for most of the :01 candle, it reversed course to fall 35 ticks.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 05.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 012012

5/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.0
Actual:54.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 104.81
1st Peak @ 105.24 – 0401 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 104.83 – 0408 (8 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast causing a 43 tick spike that did not have to cross any SMAs or Pivots to peak at 105.24 where it ran out of gas with no obvious point of resistance. Then the reversal gave it all back in 7 minutes to almost reach the 50 SMA. After the reversal, it rebounded upward and eventually developed into a strong upward FAN. While the ISM report was the catalyst, the strong reversal after the initial spike and the lack of a reversal in the area after the FAN indicate that it is not due to the influence of the ISM report.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 04.26.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 262012

4/26/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 374K
Actual:388K
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 104.10
1st Peak @ 103.84 – 0231 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 103.98 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed with 388K with the third straight week of disappointing employment #s breaking out of the 350 – 365K range. The spike crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs along with the PP Pivot to bottom at the LOD tested many times earlier in the day before retracing back for 14 ticks in 6 min.

NG 05 12 (1 Min) 04.19.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 192012

4/19/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 10B
Actual: 25B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.951
1st Peak @ 1.932 (Premature) / Reverse to 1.971 – 0431 (1 min)
-19 ticks / 20 ticks

Notes: Strong positive supply, but indecisive reaction as the market was trading is a consolidated fist prior to the report. After 4 minutes we got the negative bearish reaction that should have happened. This report broke the trend of safe reports for JOBB at the entry and returned the premature spike to the routine. No clear reason for the indecisive double wicker, but it is a risk that is prone to happen occasionally.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 04.19.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 192012

4/19/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 12.1
Actual:8.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.00
1st Peak @ 102.51 – 0406 (6 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.47 – 0410 (10 min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 102.89 – 0425 (25 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of forecast causing a healthy 6 candle spike, a small 2nd peak, and follow on reversal . Bearish sentiment was aided by a strongly negative existing home sales report. Market was consolidating prior to the report and the market was below all the SMAs except for the 100 SMA near the origin. After crossing that no level of support had to be crossed. This aided the steady short fall without reversing for several minutes. With the long tails at the 102.50 level, this is a good reversal entry point. Reversal yielded 42 ticks in 15 min just crossing the 50 SMA before pulling back.

CL 06 12 (1 Min) 04.19.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 192012

4/19/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 370K
Actual:386K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 103.19
1st Peak @ 103.06 – 0232 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.79 – 0241 (11 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 102.96 – 0243 (13 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed with 386K for the second straight week of disappointing employment #s breaking out of the 350 – 365K range. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots on its way downward.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.18.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 182012

4/18/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5M
Actual: 3.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 103.65
1st Peak @ 103.95 / Reverse to 103.54 – 0431 (1 min)
30 ticks / -11 ticks

Notes: Very volatile and erratic report that saw large oscillations due to a gain in crude supplies, but a draw on the products of 2.9 and 3.7 M barrels. This is responsible for the behavior. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 103.91then stopped immediately with a 15+ tick loss as the whipsaw began. After you see a first candle with a wick and a tail, it is a good play to place a limit order on either side of that as the price will swing again in a longer period of a few minutes. In this case a buy limit at 103.50 and a sell limit a few ticks above the 200 SMA at about 104.00 would be a good trade.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.17.12

Industrial Production Comments Off

Apr 172012

4/17/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: none
DULL REACTION
Started @ 104.68
1st Peak @ 104.60 – 0316 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 104.81 – 0317 (2 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast, with no previous report revision. Oddly this caused little impetus to move short as the market was in rally mode before the report release. The initial spike would have filled you short with JOBB, then you would have minutes later.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.17.12

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Apr 172012

4/17/2012 Monthly Building Permits (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.71M
Actual:0.75M
Previous revision: none
SPIKE/RETRACE
Started @ 103.97
1st Peak @ 103.78 – 0233 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 104.00 – 0238 (8 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with no previous revision. Finally BLDG PMTs report with a breakout. The spike fell until it encountered the 50 SMA then bounced back long for a few more ticks on the reversal. Still it was odd that the reaction was short on a positive report.

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 04.16.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 162012

4/16/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual:0.8%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual:0.8%
Previous Revision:-0.1% to 1.0%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.55
1st Peak @ 102.69 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.04 – 0251 (21 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 102.84 – 0315 (45 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report was positive, exceeding the forecast across the board causing a small upward initial spike that ran into SMAs on higher level charts and could not penetrate the 102.69 area. Still after retracing the initial spike and using the 200 SMA on the 1 min chart as support, it rebounded for a great 2nd peak on the :33 candle that went for nearly 50 ticks over 18 minutes. Since this report always has a 2nd peak. with JOBB I would either ride the heat and move my stop loss to just below the 200 SMA, or close out on with a small loss or BE on the spike and setup another long entry in anticipation of another rally at the 102.58 area. With the flat sideways activity between 0247 and 0313, this would not be a good setup to trade a reversal.

Older Entries Newer Entries