US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.13.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 132012

3/13/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual:0.9%
Previous revision:+0.4% to 1.1%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision:+0.2% to 0.6%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 106.78
1st Peak @ 106.88 – 0231 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 106.92 – 0236 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 106.74 – 0243 (13 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Due to matching the forecast overall and with the CL caught in a tight FIST at the time of the release, little impact to the market was felt. If you used JOBB, you probably got in long at 106.83 or 106.84 on the initial spike and then saw it retrace to loiter in the 106.76 – 106.83 range. Normally I advise to get out when you see this reaction and even eat a small loss rather than wait for it to potentially hit your stop loss. However my experience and intuition led me to stay in. Looking at the 15 min chart, the 200 SMA was at 106.80 and the 5 min chart 200 SMA was at 106.77. These served as powerful barriers. I moved up my stop loss to 106.75 and placed a pending sell limit at 106.86 based on the height of the 0831 candle at 106.88 and the double bottom at 106.75. Then my exit order was filled on the 0836 candle with 3 ticks of profit on the 2nd peak ascent. As the peak magnitudes were small, the reversal was also small.

CL 04 12 (2 Range) 03.09.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 092012

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Mar 092012

3/9/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 209K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:227K
Previous Revision:+41K to 284K
Rate Forecast: 8.3%
Rate Actual: 8.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

Notes: Unique situation with 6 reports released at the same time. The Unemployment report basically matched the forecast, by modest exceeding the forecast of jobs created, but matching the rate. Normally this report would overshadow all others, but the trade balance report had the worst deficit in 4 yrs giving it more attention and causing the reversal and drop. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at 107.14 after slippage, then after a rapid spike crossing the R1 line, it retreated to seesaw and hover at the R1 for 5 sec. That is the place to get out before the reversal would have taken away your profit and eventually hit your stop loss without action 52 seconds into the 0331 candle. The reversal spent 15 minutes tethered to the FIST with all SMAs before falling over 100 ticks just after the CL open.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.09.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Mar 092012

3/9/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -48.9B
Actual: -52.6B
Previous Revision: -1.6B to -50.4BINDECISIVE
Started @ 107.00
1st Peak @ 107.42 / Reversal to 106.90 – 0331 (1 min)
42 ticks / -10 ticks

Reversal to 106.13 – 0406 (36 min)
129 ticks (from peak)

NG 04 12 (1 Min) 03.08.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 082012

3/8/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -85B
Actual: -80B
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 2.310
1st Peak @ 2.250 – 0531 (1 min)
60 ticks

Reversal to 2.266 – 0536 (6 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Spike crossed the 3 major SMAs relatively close to the origin, so little pullback effect was seen then settled just below the S2 line. Reversal is small, and did not last. Market seesawed around the S2 line after the report. No premature spike.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 072012

3/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual:52.4
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 107.65
1st Peak @ 107.24 – 0401 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 107.97 – 0402 (2 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a 41 tick spike that fought through the 100 and 200 SMAs bottoming out just below the 200 and hovering in that area. Since it stalled just below the 200, this is as much as you are going to get out of this report. The reversal was caged between the 100 and the 200 for 10 minutes then broke out long, straddled the 50 and rose for a 73 tick rise up to 107.97 at 0526.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.07.12

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 072012

3/7/2012 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0315 HI time / 0815 EST)
Forecast: 204K
Actual:216K
Previous Revision: +3K to 173K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 105.13 (before premature spike)
Peak @ 105.20 / Retrace to 105.09 – 0316 (1 min)
7 ticks / -4 ticks

Notes: Report slightly exceeded forecast, with a negligible previous report revision. The 0315 candle spiked up at the end 7 ticks before reversing for 11 ticks. If using JOBB, your order would not have filled long due to the fast movement and slippage. Close out the order after it did not fill.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.07.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 072012

3/7/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0M
Actual: 0.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.51
1st Peak @ 104.83 – 0531 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 104.62 – 0533 (3 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 105.00 – 0535 (5 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 104.54 – 0549 (19 min)

Notes: Spiked up 32 ticks crossing the 100 SMA, then pulled back 21 ticks before gearing up for a 2nd peak, crossing the 100 SMA and briefly topping the 200 SMA, but caught in the resistance. After bouncing around the 200 SMA, it fell to 104.54.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.05.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Mar 052012

3/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.1
Actual:57.3K
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 106.70
Peak @ 107.05 – 0505 (5 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 106.07 – 0531 (31 min)
98 ticks

Notes: Positive report exceeded the forecast coupled with a better than expected factory orders report at the same time. This caused a slow rise of 35 ticks over 5 minutes that crossed both the 50 and 100 SMAs, then a very large reversal of 98 ticks over 25 minutes that was not likely due to the report, but larger longterm overbought considerations. With JOBB I would have gotten in at 106.75 and closed at the 100 when it appeared to hit resistance.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 03.01.12

FED Testimony Comments Off

Mar 012012

3/1/2012 FED Testimony (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN / REVERSAL
*ISM Manufacturing report released at the same time caused the reaction up to 0530, after 0530 was due to FED Testimony.
Started @ 107.86 (0530)
1st Peak @ 106.70 – 0610 (40 min)
116 ticks

Reverse Peak 1 @ 107.70 – 0634 (64 min)
100 ticks (3x top)

Reverse Peak 2 @ 108.31 – 0726 (116 min)
161 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Financial Services Committee. Caused a downward FAN for 116 ticks over 40 min, fighting through all major SMAs with ease. It then reversed for 161 ticks in the next 76 min while it was reined in by the 200 SMA for about 40 min before finally breaking long. Not an opportunity for JOBB, this is a watch and see what is going to happen with little predictability situation.

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