-111711.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/17/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual:0.65M
Previous revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.26
1st Peak @ 101.55 – 0331 (1 min)
29 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.70 – 0339 (9 min)
44 ticks
Retrace to 101.32 – 0343 (13 min)
Notes: Strong report 0.05M above forecast. Used the 50 SMA as support during retracement between 1st and 3nd peaks. I would get out in the 101.62 range 0336 – 0339 since it hit resistance in that area.
-111611.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/16/2011 Monthly Industrial Production (0415 HI time / 0915 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual:0.7%
Previous revision:-0.3% to -0.1%
Spike with 2nd peak
Started @ 101.02
1st Peak @ 101.17 – 0416 (1 min)
15 ticks
2nd Peak @ 101.24 – 0418 (3 min)
22 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded forecast, but previous report was revised downward. This caused the spike with the long tail on the first candle, but after the overall report was digested, the current positive report outweighed and caused the 2nd peak.
-111511.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/15/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:-0.1% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.5%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks
2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks
Reversal to 98.19 – 0356 (26 min)
38 ticks
Notes: Strong report came in above forecast, but previous revision on core report was slightly lower. This caused a healthy spike with a good reversal between the 1st and 2nd peaks and after the 2nd peak. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was moderately negative, taking away some of the momentum from the spike (the long wick on the 0331 candle and full reversal on 0332 candle). I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect. Either close when you see falling from the peak on the 1st candle, or wait and ride the heat until the 2nd peak 10-15 min later.
-111011.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/10/2011 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0645 HI time / 1145 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.05
Peak @ 98.36 – 0652 (7 min)
31 ticks
2nd Peak @ 98.86 – 0719 (34 min)
81 ticks
Reversal to 98.34 – 0730 / 0737 / 0738 (45/52/53 min)
52 ticks (3x bottom)
Notes: Speech released after beginning of an upward FAN aiding the interpretation of the speech. Typical Spike, small retracement, and secondary spike. I would have probably gotten out at 0714 after the series of long wicks, even though it did go a little higher.
-111011.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/10/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -46.1B
Actual: -43.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -44.9B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 97.87
1st Peak @ 98.28 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks
Retrace to 97.78 – 0334 – 0339 (4-9 min)
50 ticks
Notes: Report exceeded forecast, and previous report revised slightly upward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (slightly positive at 390K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long wick on the 0331 candle is typical of the unemployment report.
-110911.jpg "Click to enlarge")
11/9/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0430 HI time / 0930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION / INDECISIVE
Started @ 96.21
-11 ticks then +17 ticks, then -18 ticks in the 0431 candle
Reversal to 98.86 – 0737 (7 min)
18 ticks
Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would have filled long in the first second, retraced 12 ticks, then come back to give you a small profit about 30 seconds into the 0431 candle-close out there. The reaction was also constrained by the tight FIST.
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11/4/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:80K
Previous Revision:+55K to 158K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.0%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 94.78
1st Peak @ 94.06 / 94.93 – 0231 (1 min)
-72 ticks / 15 ticks
Notes: Mixed report that disappointed the forecast with jobs created, but excelled with an upward revision to the previous report and the rate falling. This mixed news caused indecision with a huge tail on the 0231 candle and a seesaw in the following 15 minutes. Still if you played it wisely and noticed the hovering for about 12 sec at the 94.10 level, you could have captured a good profit.
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11/2/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Actual:110K
Previous Revision:+25K to 116k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.06
1st Peak @ 94.40 – 0218 (3 min)
34 ticks
Retrace to 94.13 – 0222 (7 min)
27 ticks
Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward. Strong 3 candle rise aided by previously occurring FAN. Given the FAN and the positive initial reaction, I would wait and let the trade play out. When the 0219 candle retraces more than 5 ticks, that is a good place to get out since the upward movement is terminating, yielding to the reversal. Notice the reversal dropped to the bottom of the trend line that the FAN had established.