US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

4/9/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.33M
Actual: 4.03M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.73M
Actual: -5.19M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.09M
Actual: 0.24M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 102.59
1st Peak @ 102.84 – 1030:08 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 102.37 – 1033 (3 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 102.78 – 1051 (21 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 102.45 – 1102 (32 min)
33 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a minimal change was expected. The mixed news caused a long unsustainable spike of 25 ticks 8 sec into the :31 bar as it hit a double top and nearly reached the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.71 with 2 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with up to 12 ticks with a profit target or 6 ticks manually up to 41 sec into the :31 bar. After that it reversed for 47 ticks in the next 2 bars, nearly reaching the OOD. Then we saw a pullback of 28 ticks in 18 min, followed by a reversal of 33 ticks in 11 min. Again the swings are common presenting several opportunities for good trades after the report for about an hour. Notice how it burst out of the triangle long at 1135 for a sizable reaction.

CL 05-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Apr 192014

Caption for 4/16:
4/16/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.25M
Actual: 10.01M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.67M
Actual: -0.15M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.37M
Actual: -1.28M
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 104.51
1st Peak @ 104.13 – 1030:00 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 104.44 – 1033 (3 min)
31 ticks

Final Peak @ 103.12 – 1148 (78 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 103.55 – 1208 (98 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Very large gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. The news was mixed but the strong crude gain drove the action without enough on the opposite side to counter it. This caused a 38 tick short spike immediately that collided with the R1 Pivot and backed off. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 104.30 with 11 ticks of slippage due to the large immediate spike, then had an opportunity to exit with up to 15 ticks with a profit target or 8 ticks manually up to 13 sec into the :31 bar. This is a different case with the extremely strong crude gain, so any follow on orders should only be selling reversal peaks. It reversed for 31 ticks to the 13 SMA and R2 Mid Pivot on the :33 bar, then began to trickle lower, but was unable to conquer the R1 Pivot until about 45 min after the report. Then it fell off a cliff for about 100 ticks to the S1 Pivot in about 30 min. After that it reversed for 43 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

3/27/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 326K
Actual: 311K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009775 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009767 – 0830:16 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009773 – 0833:39 (4 min)
6 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009786 – 0848 (18 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009765 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009756 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009784 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs) / 0.009794 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in strong with 15K less jobs than the forecast along with the Final GDP reading that came is 0.1% disappointing to offset. This caused a barely dull 0831 bar that fell 8 ticks in 16 sec. Even with an 8 tick setting, it would have touched the inner tier but not filled as the Ask did not get there. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. After the short move it reversed for 6 ticks in a little more than 3 min, and another 13 ticks in the next 14 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/3/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 319K
Actual: 326K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009624 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
0831 bar span 0.009620 – 0.009625 (1 min)
5 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009614 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009605 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009634 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009644 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in weak and close enough to the forecast with 7K more jobs than the forecast along with the Trade Balance reading that was also disappointing. Still this was not enough to cause an impulse as the :30 bar drifted lower 4 ticks and then the move was long and muted for only 5 ticks after to remain near the anchor point. Cancel the order with no impulse after 20 sec. After the initial move it did not venture far from the SMAs in the next 35 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/10/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 314K
Actual: 300K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009842 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009828 – 0830:02 (1 min)
-14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009835 – 0830:27 (1 min)
7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009817 – 0833 (3 Min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 0.009829 – 0838 (8 Min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.009810 – 0904 (34 Min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 0.009834 – 0956 (86 Min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009832 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009822 (just above the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009851 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009860 (in between the R2 Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report came in strong with 14K less jobs than the forecast at 300K along with the Import Prices reading that came is 0.4% stronger than expected. This caused a 14 tick short spike in 2 sec that would have filled your inner tier long entry, then allowed an exit with only about 2 ticks before it would have slowly gone against you and headed for a 2nd peak. In this case, notice the consistently matching news and the hovering for 20 sec and safely exit with a few ticks. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks on the :33 bar, crossing the PP Pivot and nearly reaching the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks 5 min later and fell for a final peak of 7 more ticks in the next 26 min, nearly reaching the OOD and S1 Pivot. Then it climbed for 24 ticks in 52 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202014

4/17/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009787 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
1st Peak @ 0.009766 – 0830:01 (1 min)
-21 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 0830:24 (1 min)
19 ticks
————
Extended Reversal to 0.009795 – 0918 (48 Min)
29 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009777 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009767 (on the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009796 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.009806 (in between the R3/R3 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in strong with 12K less jobs than the forecast with no other news. This caused a 21 tick short spike in 1 sec that fell to the S2 Pivot and quickly reversed back to near the origin. This would have filled both of your long entry tiers, then allowed an exit with about 24 total ticks at almost any time. Perfect setup for this trade and easy exit. After the reversal, it continued to reverse for 10 more ticks in the next 47 min to the R2 Pivot and 200 SMA as volume was light.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 3.27.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 212014

3/27/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -49B
Actual: -57B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.426 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.500 – 1031 (1 min)
74 ticks

Reversal to 4.458 – 1034 (4 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 4.490 – 1056 (26 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 4.464 – 1136 (66 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.429 – 1233 (123 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike started on the 13/20/50 SMAs and crossed the R3 Pivot and extended the HOD for 74 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.465 with 30 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it hit 4.500 and come down to chop between 4.465 and 4.490 for about 11 sec. A profit target of anything less than 32 ticks would have filled. Otherwise look to exit quickly with about 10-20 ticks in the opening seconds. After the peak and 36 ticks naked on the :31 candle wick, it reversed for a total of 42 ticks on the :34 bar. Then it pulled back for 32 ticks in 22 min to come 10 ticks short of the 1st peak. After that we saw a reversal of 26 ticks in 40 min, followed by an extended reversal of 35 more ticks to the R1 Pivot an hour later.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 212014

4/3/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -75B
Actual: -74B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.403 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.361 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-42 ticks

Reversal to 4.399 – 1030:03 (1 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 4.362 – 1033 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 4.435 – 1107 (37 min)
73 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching draw on the reserve compared to the forecast saw an unstable short spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike started in between the 50/100 SMAs and crossed the 200 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and OOD for 42 ticks, then retreated for 38 ticks 3 sec later. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.380 with 13 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it fall another 19 ticks and reverse back to the origin. Depending on your settings, you probably took a few ticks slippage on a breakeven to exit with a 5 tick loss. If you did not use a breakeven, the reversal would have been contained by 1 tick of the 20 tick stop and allowed for a manual exit close to breakeven after about 20 sec. The matching news is the culprit for the initial whipsaw. After the :31 bar, we saw a pullback to a double bottom on the :33 bar followed by a reversal of 73 ticks in the next 34 min that crossed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 212014

4/10/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 15B
Actual: 4B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.530 (1029)
1st Peak @ 4.647 – 1031 (1 min)
117 ticks

Reversal to 4.631 – 1032 (2 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.703 – 1047 (17 min)
173 ticks

Reversal to 4.655 – 1139 (69 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long spike with the action on the :30 bar easily contained within the bracket. The spike started on the 50 SMA and crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD for 117 ticks on the :31 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.590 with a crazy 50 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to climb until it hit the R2 Pivot allowing up to 50+ ticks to be captured on the huge move. After a small reversal of 16 ticks on the next bar, it continued to step higher for a final peak of 56 more ticks in the next 15 min, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed slowly and trickled down for 48 ticks in the next 52 min after crossing the 50 SMA.

NG 05-14 (1 Min) 4.17.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 212014

4/17/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 35B
Actual: 24B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.521
1st Peak @ 4.687 – 1032 (2 min)
166 ticks

Reversal to 4.660 – 1034 (4 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 4.717 – 1045 (15 min)
196 ticks

Reversal to 4.690 – 1056 (26 min)
27 ticks

Notes: In a near identical reaction to the previous week, smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast saw a large long spike. The spike started above the 100 SMA and crossed the 200 SMA, the R3 Mid Pivot and extended the HOD for 166 ticks on the :31 and :32 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.575 with about 44 ticks of slippage on the :31 bar, then seen it continue to climb until halfway through the :32 bar after it crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. With patience, up to 100+ ticks could have been captured on this report. After a small reversal of 27 ticks on the next 2 bars, it continued to step higher for a final peak of 30 more ticks in the next 11 min, crossing the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 27 ticks in the next 11 min after crossing the 13/20 SMAs.

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