US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 232014

4/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.2
Actual: 53.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (Fill)
Started @ 132’23
1st Peak @ 132’27 – 1000:03 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 132’15 – 1008 (8 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report came in modestly worse than the forecast, with a reading 0.5 points below the forecast causing a small and shortly sustained bullish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a long spike of 4 ticks on the :01 bar that started just below the S1 Pivot / 100 SMA then crossed the 200 SMA and reached the S1 Mid Pivot for 4 ticks after 3 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 132’26 with no slippage, then seen it hover on your fill point for 15 sec. Due to the narrow offset and crossing the 200 SMA acting as strong resistance, it reversed quickly back to the origin late in the bar and for 12 ticks in the next 7 min to the S2 Mid Pivot. After noticing the market hover, and knowing the situation, look to exit by moving the profit target to +1 and stop loss to -2. Then the stop would have filled at about 21 sec. After the reversal, it pulled back for 7 ticks to the 100 SMA in 14 min, then fell for a double bottom 40 min later.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.2.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Apr 232014

4/2/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 192K
Actual: 191K
Previous revision: +39K to 178K
DULL REACTION (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 132’12
1st Peak @ 132’16 – 0815:09 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 132’10 – 0815:51 (1 min)
-6 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast with a large 39K upward revision to the previous report. This caused a delayed long spike of 4 ticks followed by an immediate reversal of 3 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, then another 3 ticks later in the bar to the LOD. If you were listening to talking forex, you would have heard the matching results announced and had ample opportunity to cancel the trade in 9 sec before the impulse happened. With JOBB uncanceled, you would have filled long at about 132’15 with no slippage, then seen it fall and hover at about -2 ticks. Look to exit there before a bigger loss would have happened later. After the reversal to the LOD, it turned into a down trend that sustained for about 3 hrs due to other factors.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.4.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Apr 232014

4/4/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 199K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 192K
Previous Revision: +22K to 192K
Rate Forecast: 6.6%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
INDECISIVE (STOP GAPPED)
Started @ 132’07
1st Peak @ 131’21 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-18 ticks

Reversal to 132’28 – 0830:05 (1 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 131’31 – 0837 (7 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 132’21 – 0906 (36 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Perfect storm scenario with a near matching # on the jobs with only 7k off the forecast, while the rate came in 0.1% worse than expected and we saw an a previous upward revision of 22K jobs. This caused a 18 tick short spike that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a 5 sec market freeze. When the freeze ended, the market opened with a 26 tick gap and resulted in a 39 tick reversal that nearly reached the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 131’30 with about 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to give 9 ticks of profit before the freeze. After the freeze, the stop at 132’03 would have been gapped as it has an 8 tick slippage limit imposed by the CME. Since the market emerged from the freeze at 132’15, this would have been 12 ticks beyond the stop and 4 ticks beyond the slippage limit. This is the first time this has happened with JOBB with any report. The Non Farm report on the ZB presents the most risk for this scenario with the tight 8 tick banding limit. In this situation, you can respond 2 ways: 1)panic and get out immediately with about 20 ticks loss, or 2) take a breath and evaluate the situation. Since it was a matching report, you can expect it to return to near the price level at the origin. Since we have all the major SMAs in a fist and the PP Pivot at about 132’04, wait for it to come down to that area in about 15 min. Sure enough it fell to 132’02 in 5 min, then another 3 ticks at 7 min. Add a manual stop above the action and trail it down about 4-5 ticks above the price and set the profit target at 132’03 for a 5 tick loss. After the pullback crossed the S1 Mid Pivot, it reversed for 22 ticks in the next 30 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it backed off and traded sideways.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Apr 242014

4/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.5
Actual: 53.1
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.009613
1st Peak @ 0.009623 – 1000:00 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009598 – 1000:01 (1 min)
-25 ticks

Pullback to 0.009620 – 1000:20 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009612 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009636 – 1038 (38 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009622 – 1115 (75 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Modestly negative report fell short of the forecast by 0.4 points to be nearly matching. This caused an unfortunate whipsaw that spiked up 10 ticks to hit the 200 SMA/ S2 Mid Pivot, then immediately reverse to the S3 Mid Pivot for 25 ticks, followed by an immediate pullback to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.009619 with 3 ticks of slippage, then been stopped with about 12 ticks including 4 ticks of slippage on the immediate reversal. This was due to the near matching results, but the violent whipsaw is still unusual. After the 1st bar, it rose for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot after 38 min, then fell 14 ticks to the 200 SMA / S2 Mid Pivot in the next 37 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 012014

4/9/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.73/2.9
Actual: 2.72/2.8
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’13 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’09 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’11 – 1301:47 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’07 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 133’11 – 1310 (9 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’10 (just below the 200 SMA) / 133’05 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 133’20 (on the OOD)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield nearly matched last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks, then back off and hover on your fill point for about 1 minute. In this case, either look to exit at Breakeven or move the stop up to -1 tick and the profit target to +2 ticks. As it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and all 3 major SMAs on the drop, it is reasonable to expect a small correction back to the S1 Mid Pivot. When that did not happen, you would have taken a 1 tick loss. After the :02 bar, it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the S1 Pivot, then reversed for 4 ticks back to the SMAs. Then it fell again and traded sideways on the S1 Pivot.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.9.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 012014

4/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 133’07
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 133’15 – 1400:52 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 133’10 – 1403:29 (4 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 133’17 – 1405 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 133’07 – 1409 (9 min)
10 ticks

Final Peak @ 133’22 – 1428 (28 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 133’10 – 1448 (48 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 133’12 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 133’16 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 133’17 (just above the PP Pivot ) / 132’31 (in between the S2 Mid and S2 Pivots)

Notes: We shifted this report to the Trap Trade now that the FED is routinely driven into the scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, with the reactions getting smaller and shortly sustained. The minutes expounded on the surprise longterm sentiment from the FED meeting that rate hikes would be considered in early 2015 after QE was phased out and triggers would not be as rigid. This caused the bonds to rally for 8 ticks, in a slightly larger move, followed by a 5 tick reversal that took 3.5 min to materialize. This would have filled your inner short entry at 133’12 then hovered between 3 ticks of heat and 1 tick of profit for about 4 min. Then the 2nd peak push to the PP would have filled the outer tier. After this move the stop to about 133’18 above the PP Pivot and wait for a drop. An exit at 133’08 would have yielded 12 total ticks. After the reversal, it traded sideways then rallied for a final peak of 15 ticks in the next 20 min to the HOD. Then it fell 12 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs 20 min later.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 4.10.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 012014

4/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.63/2.4
Actual: 3.53/2.5
DULL REACTION…2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1302 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 134’04 – 1308 (7 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 134’19 – 1328 (27 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 134’06 – 1405 (64 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction that hit the 50 SMA and stalled. With JOBB you would have barely filled long at 134’11 with no slippage, then seen it hover at 1 tick in the red for over 30 sec. In this case, move the stop up to 134’09 and move the profit target to 134’13. Your stop would have filled for a minor loss as the reversal fell 7 ticks and crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded and achieved a 2nd peal of 11 ticks 20 min later, crossing the R3 Pivot and extending the HOD. After that it fell 13 ticks crossing all 3 major SMAs and reaching the R3 Mid Pivot in 37 min.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 10.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

10/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 389.50
1st Peak @ 383.50 – 1200:05 (1 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 390.25 – 1201:29 (2 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 385.50 – 1203 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 393.25 – 1207 (7 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 387.75 – 1215 (15 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 388.25 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 383.75 – 18 tics
Recommended Profit Target placement: 384.50 (below the S3 Mid Pivot) or 381.75 (below the S3 Pivot)

Notes: As this report is often prone to reverse after a few seconds, note the hovering in the first 17 sec and the inability to breakout below 383.50 and exit quickly or reverse the order.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042014

4/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.8%
Regular Actual: 1.1%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009822
1st Peak @ 0.009806 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009821 – 0903 (33 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report was strong overall, with 0.2% and 0.3% deviations. This caused a healthy short reaction of 16 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and fell to cross all the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009817 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 8-10 ticks near the bottom when it hovered for 20 sec later in the bar. After that it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the 50 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it traded sideways on the S2 Pivot before climbing again later.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 4.16.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 052014

4/16/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.00M
Actual: 0.99M
Previous revision: -0.01M to 1.01M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.97M
Actual: 0.95M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 0.92M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009777
1st Peak @ 0.009786 – 0831 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009782 – 0832 (2 min)
4 ticks

Pullback to 0.009787 – 0835 (5 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009783 – 0841 (11 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report was modestly disappointing overall with the BLDG Permits slightly falling short and the Housing starts slightly falling short of the forecast. This caused a 9 tick long move that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and S2 Pivot in a gradual rise that took 17 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.009780 with no slippage, then seen it hover between 82 and 85 for most of the bar. Look to exit with 3-4 ticks. After the peak, it basically traded between 83 and 87 until the 0915 news took it lower.

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