US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.6.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

May 242014

5/6/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.1B
Actual: -40.4B
Previous Revision: +0.4B to -41.9B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009842
1st Peak @ 0.009845 – 0831 (1 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009851 – 0842 (12 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009841 – 0851 (21 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast to cause a dull long reaction that only achieved 3 ticks on the :31 bar to reach the HOD then backed off. With JOBB you would have either cancelled after 10 sec with no fill or been filled at 0.009845 with no slippage, then seen it back off and hover at -1 tick for about 30 sec. Look to exit there with the matching results. After the :31 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 11 min. Then it fell 10 ticks in the next 9 min back to the R3 Mid Pivot. After that it traded sideways.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.7.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 252014

5/7/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.8
Actual: 2.61/2.6
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 136’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’04 – 1301:38 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’01 – 1302:20 (2 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 136’08 – 1312 (11 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’02 – 1320 (19 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 135’29 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 135’26 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot ) / 136’09 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield retreated a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for only 3 ticks in a dull reaction, then back off to the origin after about 45 sec. This would not have impulse to fill the inner tier, so cancel the order. After the :02 bar, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks, crossing the R1 Mid Pivot in 9 min before reversing 6 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 8 min.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.53/2.5
Actual: 3.44/2.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 136’12 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’23 – 1305 (4 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 136’05 – 1319 (18 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 136’10 – 1417 (76 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month. This caused the bonds to spike short for a large reaction of 21 ticks that hit the LOD and S1 Mid Pivot then stepped lower for 4 min. With JOBB you would have filled short at 136’01 with 8 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover on the S1 Mid Pivot for a long time. Look ot exit at 135’28 with 5 ticks of profit. After the spike hit bottom, the reversal rebounded for 14 ticks in 14 min, crossing the 20 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then the extended reversal claimed another 5 ticks in the next hour to the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.8.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 252014

5/8/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 328K
Actual: 319K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009831 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009838 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009825 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009822 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009811 (just above the LOD)
Short entries – 0.009839 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot/HOD) / 0.009849 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 9K less jobs lost than the forecast with no other significant statistical news. This caused a 7 tick long unsustainable spike in 1 sec that rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then immediately fell back to the origin. This would have just missed your inner short entry tier, but the setup was perfect as it quickly retreated. It continued to chop up and down as the ECB Press conference progressed and impacted after about 2 min.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9.11.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 102015

9/11/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 370.50
1st Peak @ 377.00 – 1200:04 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 364.50 – 1200:13 (1 min)
-50 ticks

Pullback to 377.00 – 1200:47 (1 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 369.00 – 1203 (3 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.75 – 1207 ( 7min)
53 ticks

Reversal to 375.75 – 1208 (8 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 383.50 – 1222 (22 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 377.25 – 1234 (34 min)
25 ticks

Expected Fill: 372.25 (Long)
Slippage: 2 ticks
Best Exit: 376.50 – 17 tics
Recommended Profit Target placement: 375.00 (above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: As this report is often prone to reverse after a few seconds, note the hovering in the first 9 sec and the inability to breakout above 377.00 and exit quickly or reverse the order.

ZB 06-14 (1 Min) 5.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

May 262014

5/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 1.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’12
1st Peak @ 135’24 – 0830:06 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 135’18 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’27 – 0839 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 135’21 – 0847 (17 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was very weak with 0.6% and 0.4 % margins, but was offset by strong previous revisions. This caused a stable long reaction of 12 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the R1 Pivot, and extended the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 135’21 with 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture 1-2 ticks as it hovered near the top on 2 occasions. After a 6 tick reversal in 3 min, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min to remain above the R2 Mid Pivot for about 5 min. With the large deviation on the report, waiting for a 2nd peak would be prudent to capture about 5 total ticks. After that it fell 6 ticks to the 20 SMA 8 min later.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 272014

5/15/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:10 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009808 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009797 – 0837 (7 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.009824 – 0847 (17 min)
27 ticks

Pullback to 0.009810 – 0856 (26 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009808 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009799 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009825 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.009836 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strong with 24K less jobs lost than the forecast with a moderately strong core CPI reading. This caused a 15 tick short spike in 10 sec that fell to cross the S2 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry tier with about 6 ticks to spare, then retreated to your fill point and stalled at the S2 Mid Pivot. With the strongly biased news, look to exit at about breakeven where it hovered. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in the ext 6 min, then it reversed strongly for 27 ticks in 10 min. If you had left the trade open, the outer long entry would have filled with ideal position, then allowed a profitable exit with over 30 total ticks, but this would not have been advisable given the situation.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.15.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

May 272014

5/15/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 13.9
Actual: 15.4
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009837
1st Bar span: 0.009835 – 0.009840 – 1001 (1 min)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 1.5 pts, causing a dull reaction that strayed only 2 ticks from the origin for the first 45 sec of the :01 bar. Cancel the order with no fill after 10 sec. The upward trend that was in place prior to the news basically continued after the brief hiccup and would not have appeared disrupted to the casual observer.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.16.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 272014

5/16/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.01M
Actual: 1.08M
Previous revision: +0.01M to 1.00M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 0.98M
Actual: 1.07M
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009860
1st Peak @ 0.009849 – 0831 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009860 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009837 – 0841 (11 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009853 – 0901 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly impressive overall with the BLDG Permits and the Housing starts greatly exceeding the forecast. This caused a 11 tick short move that started on the 50 SMA then fell to cross the 200 SMA and nearly reach the OOD in about 2 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009855 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall to hover between 52 and 49 for the first 8 sec for an ideal quick exit of about 4-5 ticks. You would have had another opportunity to exit with about 3 ticks later in the bar or be patient and wait for the 2nd peak with the strong reaction. After the reversal on the :32 bar returned to the origin, it fell for a 2nd peak of 12 more ticks to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD in 8 min. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in the next 20 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 5.16.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

May 282014

5/16/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 84.7
Actual: 81.8
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009848 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009854 – 0955:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009851 – 0955:16 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.009857 – 0956 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009845 – 1002 (7 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009862 – 1010 (15 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009847 – 1052 (57 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009840 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.009833 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009856 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.009864 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.9 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 6 ticks as it matched the high from 13 min earlier. That would have fallen short of the inner short order by 2 tick after the initial burst. It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer as it was backing off quickly and not close enough to the tier to begin. Interestingly, if you had left the order on the chart, the later push on the :56 bar to cross the 200 SMA would have been a perfect entry for the short order. The reversal fell 12 ticks to match the low just before the news in 5 min. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks to reach the R1 Mid Pivot after 8 min. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in the next 42 min to the OOD.

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