US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.2.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 082014

6/2/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.7
Actual: 53.2* corrected to 55.4 150 min later
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009778
1st Peak @ 0.009797 – 1000:00 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009785 – 1003 (3 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009800 – 1009 (9 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.009784 – 1031 (31 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report came in initially erroneously disappointing with an offset of 2.5 pts. It was later corrected 150 min later to 56.0, then revised again to 55.4 to be narrowly missing. Even though the correct reading is 55.4, the market reaction was based on 53.2. This caused a large, quick, and shortly sustained bullish reaction followed by a quick reversal. We saw a long spike of 19 ticks on the :01 bar that started just below the 50 SMA then rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 009793 with abnormally high 11 ticks of slippage, then seen it briefly hover between breakeven and 2 ticks of profit before falling in the next 10 sec to hit your stop if you did not manually exit earlier closer to breakeven. Regardless of the outcome, the quick reversal with a strong deviation presented an excellent opportunity to buy it around 0.009786 for a 2nd peak climb. That would have yielded up to 15 ticks in about 6 min. Then it reversed again for 16 ticks back to the S3 Pivot after 22 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 217K
Actual: 179K
Previous revision: -5K to 215K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009743 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009759 – 0815:27 (1 min)
)))16 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009750 – 0817:08 (3 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.009762 – 0849 (34 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.009738 – 1015 (120 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009734 (No SMA / Pivot nearby) / 0.009725 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009753 (on the OOD / S1 Pivot) / 0.009761 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 38k jobs causing a quick long spike of 14 ticks that crossed the OOD, S1 Mid Pivot, and HOD. Then it backed off a few ticks and peaked for 2 more ticks in the middle of the bar. That would have filled the inner tier short order with a tick or 2 of positive slippage at about 0.009754. It mostly hovered near the fill point as the S1 Mid Pivot was there and took longer than a few sec to reverse due to the strongly biased report. As it reversed for 9 ticks in the next 2 min it stalled just above the 13 SMA. An exit there would have yielded 3-4 ticks as you move the stop to breakeven if waiting for it to drop further. After that it rose for a final peak of 3 more ticks that crossed the PP Pivot before falling 24 ticks to the S2 Pivot in the next 90 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -40.8B
Actual: -47.2B
Previous Revision: -3.8B to -44.2B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009754
1st Peak @ 0.009760 – 0831 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009755 – 0833 (3 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009762 – 0849 (19 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009752 – 0910 (40 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 6.4B to cause a small and slow moving long reaction of 6 ticks in 34 sec to reach the PP Pivot. With JOBB you may have cancelled as the reaction would have hit the long entry at about 12 sec, otherwise you would have been filled at 0.009757 with no slippage. Look to exit at 59 or 60 on the PP Pivot for about 2-3 ticks. After a small reversal back to the origin, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in the next 18 min. Then it fell 10 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD. It continued to fall further in the next hour, but largely due to the follow up reaction to the ADP Payroll report earlier and other market dynamics.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 55.6
Actual: 56.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009749
1st Peak @ 0.009742 – 1002 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009738 – 1015 (15 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.009748 – 1036 (36 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Modestly positive report exceeded the forecast by 0.7 points to be nearly matching. This caused a short reaction of only 7 ticks that started on the 200 SMA and fell to reach the S2 Mid Pivot on the :02 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009745 with 1 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 2-3 ticks with patience on the :02 bar. It initially struggled with the S1 Pivot, then was able to drop to reach the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it rebounded only 3 ticks to the 13 SMA before claiming 4 more ticks on a 2nd peak to the S2 Pivot after 15 min. After that it reversed 10 ticks to the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA in the next 21 min.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.5.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/5/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 309K
Actual: 312K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009744 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009737 – 0830:00 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009745 – 0830:48 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009734 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009724 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009753 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.009762 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3K more jobs lost than the forecast. This caused a 7 short spike that started on the PP Pivot, then fell and promptly reversed back to the PP Pivot. All of the movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. In the aftermath, the EUR ECB press conference took over the stage to influence the markets as on the :34 bar for at least the next hour.

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.27M
Actual: -3.43M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.16M
Actual: 0.21M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.43M
Actual: 2.01M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 103.51
1st Peak @ 103.69 – 1030:00 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 103.44 – 1030:52 (1 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 103.58 – 1031:16 (2 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 103.22 – 1043 (13 min)
36 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a negligible gain was expected. The news was conflicting as the drawdown on the crude contributed to the build up on the distillates, causing indecision. This resulted in a 18 tick long spike that rose to cross the R3 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 103.64 with 3 ticks of slippage. It would have hovered near the fill point for about 15 sec within 5 ticks of breakeven before reversing. This is a case we warn about in the alert where hovering in excess of 5 sec is often a precursor for a reversal. In this case the prudent course of action would be exiting with about 3-5 ticks loss as it hovered. The alternative would have seen it march toward an unadjusted stop at 45 sec. After the reversal, it pulled back for 14 ticks in the next 24 sec, then reversed for 36 ticks after crossing all 3 Major SMAs.

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 6.4.2014

Beige Book Comments Off

Jun 142014

6/4/2014 FED Beige Book (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.67
1st Peak @ 102.61 – 1401 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 102.78 – 1413 (13 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 102.42 – 1508 (68 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 102.53 – 1516 (76 min)
11 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that economic activity continued to expand at a modest to moderate pace during the reporting period of mid March to early May. The DX had minimal movement. This caused the CL to fall for only 6 ticks on 1 bar before reversing. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 102.62 with no slippage, then hovered for a breakeven exit for 20 sec. After that it reversed slowly for 17 ticks in the next 12 min. Then it fell 25 ticks in the next hour, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 11 ticks in 8 min back to the 50 SMA.

ES 06-14 (1 Min) 6.6.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 182014

6/6/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 214K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 217K
Previous Revision: -6K to 282K
Rate Forecast: 6.4%
Rate Actual: 6.3%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 1939.00 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1941.50 – 0830:35 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 1940.00 – 0831:20 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1943.75 – 0833:29 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1940.50 – 0851 (21 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1933.00 (just below the PP Pivot) / 1929.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 1946.00 (on the R1 Pivot) / 1949.50 (on the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Nearly matching report with 3K more jobs added than the forecast, a small downward revision to the previous report and a drop of 0.1% in the U-3 rate. Due to the match, this caused an initial spike of only 10 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, but fell short of the HOD. This would have been well contained inside the Trap Trade after 30 sec, so cancel the order. After a small reversal of 6 ticks, it climbed for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks in the next 2 min. Then it reversed for 13 ticks to the 200 SMAon the next 17 min. After that, it continued to swing up and down between the HOD and 100 SMA.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.18.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jun 192014

6/18/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 135’17
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’05 – 1400:09 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 135’24 – 1400:38 (1 min)
)))19 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’12 – 1401:45 (2 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 135’20 – 1402:13 (3 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Pullback to 135’06 – 1406 (6 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 136’06 – 1433 (33 min)
32 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 135’09 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 135’02 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 135’24 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 136’00 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $35B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action while also stating that it could be a while before rate hikes commence. This caused a short move of 12 ticks to fall just 2 ticks short of the S1 Mid Pivot and quick retreat of 19 ticks to cross the R1 Mid Pivot as is typical. Your inner long entry would have filled, then allowed for an exit around 134’22 with 13 ticks as it hovered for aver 20 sec as the :01 bar was expiring. After that it continued to execute several large swings and eventually broke out long and trended slightly higher heading into the close.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.5.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 192014

6/5/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 116B
Actual: 119B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.662
1st Peak @ 4.586 – 1030:40 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 4.621 – 1041 (11 min)
35 ticks

Pullback to 4.591 – 1049 (19 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 4.658 – 1129 (59 min)
67 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike. The spike started just above the 50 SMA and fell to cross the PP and S1 Pivots and extend the LOD for 76 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.630 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the bottom by the S1 Pivot for most of the bar. A profit target of anything less than 43 ticks would have filled, otherwise look to exit with about 35 ticks where it hovered. After the hovering, it reversed to the 13 SMA and almost reached the PP after 10 min for 35 ticks. Then it pulled back for 30 ticks to the S1 Pivot before reversing for 67 ticks in the next 40 min to the 200 SMA.

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