US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 212014

6/12/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 111B
Actual: 107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.544
1st Peak @ 4.683 – 1032:58 (3 min)
139 ticks

Reversal to 4.656 – 1036 (6 min)
27 ticks

2nd Peak @ 4.708 – 1049 (19 min)
164 ticks

Reversal to 4.677 – 1100 (30 min)
31 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long spike that continued to progressively climb. The spike started on the tightly clustered 3 Major SMAs and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot on the :31 bar, and the R3 Pivot on the :33 bar for a total of 139 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 4.579 with about 25 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to ratchet higher without much of a retreat until about 3 min after the report. This would have allowed an exit of up to 100 ticks. After that it fell 27 ticks in the next 3 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 25 more ticks after 13 min to the R4 Mid Pivot. Then it fell 31 ticks in the next 11 min and traded sideways.

NG 07-14 (1 Min) 6.19.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 212014

6/19/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 112B
Actual: 113B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.665
1st Peak @ 4.579 – 1030:15 (1 min)
86 ticks

Reversal to 4.647 – 1033 (3 min)
68 ticks

Pullback to 4.611 – 1041 (11 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 4.644 – 1053 (23 min)
33 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.695 – 1135 (65 min)
84 ticks

Notes: We saw a nearly matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short spike after a premature spike that happened 5 sec early. Fortunately, the :59 sec setup time would have been after the premature move and allowed a safe entry. The spike started just above the 200 SMA and fell to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot for 86 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.633 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it fall and hover near the S2 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec before It retreated. Look to exit near there with about 40 ticks. Due to the match, it reversed quickly in the next 2 bars for 68 ticks to the 20 SMA. Then it pulled back for 36 ticks in the next 8 min to nearly reach the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed for 33 ticks in 12 min and another 51 ticks in the next 42 min to reach the PP Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 032014

6/11/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.61/2.6
Actual: 2.65/2.9
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 135’01 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 134’28 – 1301:37 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’31 – 1301:40 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 134’24 – 1306 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 134’30 – 1311 (10 min)
6 ticks

Double Bottom @ 134’24 – 1336 (35 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 135’05 – 1424 (83 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’28 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 134’25 (in between the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD)
Short entries – 135’05 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 135’08 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 5 ticks, then quickly back off for 3 ticks after 3 sec, then fall again. This would have filled the inner tier then hovered near the fill point for 3 min. In this case, you can exit near breakeven, or wait it out with the outer tier still on the board in case of a 2nd peak and follow on reversal. As it fell later, it would have filled the outer long entry then rebounded allowing 5-7 total ticks on both fills to be captured. Then it made a double bottom and reversed for 13 ticks nearly 1.5 hrs after the auction.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 032014

6/12/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.44/2.1
Actual: 3.44/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 135’03 (1301)
1st Peak @ 135’18 – 1303 (2 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 135’12 – 1305 (4 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 136’00 – 1337 (36 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 135’27 – 1344 (43 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield was unchanged from last month, but the demand rose strongly. This caused the bonds to spike long for a large reaction of 15 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs and the HOD, then hit the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 135’13 with 7 ticks of slippage, then seen it give you up to 5 ticks to capture where it hovered early in the :03 bar just below the R2 Pivot. The higher slippage is disappointing, but 5 ticks is still a good take on this report. After a 6 tick reversal that fell to the R2 Mid Pivot on the next 2 bars, it stepped higher for a final peak of 14 more ticks after about 30 min and crossing the R3 Mid Pivot. Then is reversed for a meager 5 ticks and traded sideways.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9.30.2015

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jan 112016

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 9_30_2015

9/30/2015 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 392.75
Head Fake to 394.25 – 1200:08 (1 min)
6 ticks

1st Peak @ 385.50 – 1200:22 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 389.75 – 1200:36 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 383.50 – 1202:23 (3 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 390.75 – 1211 (11 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 385.25 – 1229 (29 min)
22 ticks

Expected Fill: 294.25 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 392.00 – 9 tick loss (worst case 15 tick stopped)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: The first 8 sec spoiled an otherwise great 2nd peak trade.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 8.12.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Aug 252015

8/12/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 392.75
1st Peak @ 366.75 – 1201:22 (1 min)
104 ticks

Reversal to 373.00 – 1202:18 (3 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 357.50 – 1209 (9 min)
141 ticks

Reversal to 370.75 – 1238 (38 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a huge short spike of 104 ticks in 82 sec that crossed every support barrier until peaking on the S4 Pivot. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 390.00 with 6 ticks of slippage, then look to exit at the S4 Mid Pivot with at least 70 ticks. It reversed 25 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 37 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 53 ticks in 29 min to the S4 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.4%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.5%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.4% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 134’26 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 135’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 134’30 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-2 ticks

)))Pullback to 135’03 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 135’00 – 0832 (2 min)
3 ticks

2nd Peak @ 135’06 – 0835 (5 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 134’31 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 135’08 – 0900 (30 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 135’01 – 0914 (44 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 134’22 (on the S1 Pivot / LOD) / 134’18 (on the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 134’30 (just below the OOD and R1 Mid Pivot) / 135’02 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. All of the news was negative with core and regular retail sales falling 0.3% short of the forecast and claims exceeding the forecast while the previous revisions were large and bullish. This caused a long move of 6 ticks initially that crossed the OOD. This would have filled the inner short entry with 2 tick to spare, then backed off to hover near the fill point. Upon noticing the strong bias and lack of conflict in the news, look to exit near breakeven early in the :01 bar. After the initial seconds it continued to step higher in the next 30 min as it established a new high the then reversed for 7 ticks afterward.

6J 06-14 (1 Min) 6.12.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/12/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 306K
Actual: 317K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009791 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009802 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009796 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009802 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009805 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009799 – 0848 (18 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009779 (on the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009771 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009801(just above the 200 SMA /S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009809 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in disappointing with 11K more jobs lost than the forecast coupled with a very disappointing Retail Sales report. This caused a relatively small 11 tick long spike that started on the S2 Mid Pivot, then rose to cross the 200 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot then backed off 6 ticks in 11 sec. Depending on the placement of the tiers, this may have filled your inner tier. 10-12 ticks would have been a range of 0.009801 to 0.009803. I chose 0.009801 due to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot being strong resistance. Look to exit with about 3-4 ticks when it hovered with the news being consistent and strongly biased. It climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 3 min, then fell 6 ticks in the next 14 min.

CL 07-14 (1 Min) 6.11.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/11/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.87M
Actual: -2.60M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.84M
Actual: 1.70MM
Distillates
Forecast: 1.16M
Actual: 0.86MM
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.42
1st Peak @ 104.61 – 1030:26 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 104.27 – 1035 (5 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 104.69 – 1039 (9 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 104.43 – 1055 (25 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and there was little surprise, so we saw a small reaction. This resulted in a 19 tick long spike that rose to cross the 200 SMA and PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you may have cancelled the order with no fill after 20 sec. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at about 104.52 with no slippage then seen it hover around 6-9 ticks of profit for 8 sec. Look to exit there with about 7 ticks. After that it reversed for 34 ticks in 4 min as it crossed the OOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in the next 4 min, falling just short of the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell 26 ticks to reach the PP Pivot and 100/200 SMAs in 16 min. After that it continued to climb higher as the news report influence faded.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 6.13.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jul 042014

6/13/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.2
Actual: 81.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009804 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009810 – 0956:50 (2 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009804 – 1001 (6 min)
)))-6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (in between the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009789 (no SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009811 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009819 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.0 points causing a tame long impulse on the 6J for only 6 ticks over 2 min as it was trapped inside the SMAs. That would have fallen well short of the inner short order after the initial burst. It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer either, so cancel the order. After the spike, the reversal fell 6 ticks back to the 100 SMA after 4 min.

Older Entries Newer Entries