US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jul 142014

7/2/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 281K
Previous revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.0009856 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009833 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009844 – 0815:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Continued reversal to 0.009849 – 0818 (3 min)
16 ticks

Double Bottom to 0.009833 – 0846 (16 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009846 (on the OOD) / 0.009837 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009866 (on the HOD) / 0.009876 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 74k jobs causing a quick short spike of 23 ticks that crossed the OOD, S3 Mid Pivot, and extended the LOD. Then it retreated 11 ticks in only 26 sec to the S2 Pivot. That would have filled the inner and outer tier long orders with about 4 ticks excess making your average entry about 0.009841. Look to exit where it hovered at about 9844 for about 6 total ticks on 2 fills. It continued to reverse for 5 more ticks early on the 3rd bar, but due to the biased report, waiting for more ticks would not be wise in this case. This proved correct as it fell for a double bottom 13 min later then remained near the LOD for over an hour until it dropped again.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 7.2.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 162014

7/2/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.23M
Actual: -3.16M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.36M
Actual: -1.24M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.76M
Actual: 0.98M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 104.66
1st Peak @ 105.13 – 1033 (3 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 104.91 – 1038 (8 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 105.53 – 1103 (33 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 104.32 – 1220 (110 min)
121 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a near matching negligible. Overall, the results were bullish for oil with the gas and crude consistent and driving the action. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have seen your long entry fill at about 104.78 with 2 ticks of slippage then struggle with the 200 SMA for several seconds. In this situation, given the decisive results, it would be wise to wait for a larger reaction since it was stalling only 20 ticks from the origin. The S1 Mid Pivot would have made a great target for about 20 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 22 ticks to the 13 SMA after 5 min, then climbed for a final peak of 40 more ticks in the next 25 min as it eclipsed the PP Pivot and HOD. Then it reversed slowly and methodically for 121 ticks in about 80 min back to through the origin and extending the LOD.

CL 08-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 162014

7/9/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.15M
Actual: -2.37M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.22M
Actual: 0.58M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.23M
Actual: 0.23M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.74
1st Peak @ 102.61 – 1030:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 102.80 – 1030:34 (1 min)
19 ticks

Final Peak @ 102.40 – 1034 (4 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 102.80 – 1048 (18 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Modest draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the results did not differ much from the forecasts and they were conflicting, but they caused a dull tug of war that did not stray far from the origin. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 102.64 with no slippage, then struggle to go any lower due to the conflicting results and position of the 50 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot just below. It hovered near the fill point briefly, then reversed for 9 ticks, then fell back to the fill point area allowing 2 opportunities to exit near breakeven. If you waited, you would have been stopped out at 34 sec into the bar as it reversed 16 ticks, but that should have been preventable. It fell for a final peak at 4 min to extend the LOD for another 21 ticks. Then it reversed for 40 ticks to reach a double top from the earlier reversal.

ES 09-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 172014

7/3/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 214K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 288K
Previous Revision: +7K to 224K
Rate Forecast: 6.3%
Rate Actual: 6.1%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 1969.50 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1971.25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 1967.25 – 0830:42 (1 min)
)))-16 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 1966.25 – 0837 (7 min)
20 ticks

Final Peak @ 1975.00 – 0936 (66 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1971.50 – 0949 (79 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1963.50 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 1959.25 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 1975.75 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 1980.00 (just below the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Strongly positive report with 74K more jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and a drop of 0.2% in the U-3 rate. In spite of the strong report, the 4th of July holiday kept volatility to a minimum. We only saw a deviation of 9 ticks from the origin in the first minute. This would have been well contained inside the Trap Trade after 30 sec, so cancel the order. After the first minute, it fell to the S1 Mid Pivot and OOD, then reversed for a final peak of 15 ticks more than the original peak as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks to the 13 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 192014

7/17/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 15.6
Actual: 23.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009854
1st Peak @ 0.009842 – 1001 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.009856 – 1033 (33 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 8.3 pts, causing a short spike of 12 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and fell to cross the PP Pivot and extend the LOD. Due to the crossing of the PP Pivot, the reaction was not sustained. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at about 0.009849 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it retreat to hover around your fill point. Look to exit at breakeven, as it hovered for over a minute within 1 tick of your fill point. If you had waited for a secondary drop, you would have been faced with a similar result with only 1-2 ticks loss after 5-10 min. The reversal reached the 100 SMA after 33 min for a total of 14 ticks.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 192014

7/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.2
Actual: 56.0
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 0.009783
1st Bar Span 0.009785 – 0.009782 – 1001 (1 min)
+2/ -1 ticks

Reversal to 0.009802 – 10007 (7 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report fell short of the forecast by only 0.2 points. This caused a dull yawner of only 2 ticks movement from the origin. Since this was matching and would not have filled your order, cancel after 10 sec or less. The late long move was most likely a correction to the larger short move from the NFP report 90 min earlier.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/10/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 92B
Actual: 93B
INDECISIVE…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.168
1st Peak @ 4.114 – 1030:30 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 4.150 – 1034 (4 min)
36 ticks

Pullback to 4.120 – 1038 (8 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 4.170 – 1048 (4 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused an initial whipsaw followed by a moderate short spike. There was a premature spike at about 6 sec before the report that would not have affected the setup. The spike started on the SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 54 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.141 with about 17 ticks of slippage, then seen it immediately stop you out on a quick retracement. After that it fell methodically to peak at the midpoint of the bar for 54 ticks. Then it reversed for 36 ticks in the next 3 bars to eclipse the S1 Pivot before pulling back for 30 ticks to the S2 Pivot 4 min later. Then it reversed to 50 ticks to the 200 SMA and S1 Mid Pivot.

NG 08-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/17/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 99B
Actual: 107B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.053
1st Peak @ 3.975 – 1030:42 (1 min)
78 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.956 – 1035 (5 min)
97 ticks

Reversal to 3.980 – 1048 (18 min)
24 ticks

Notes: We saw a larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast by 8k which caused a large short spike that fell 50 ticks in the first second. The spike started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the S3 Pivot and extend the LOD on the :31 bar for a total of 78 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 4.012 with about 31 ticks of slippage, then seen it trickle lower until hovering in the middle of the bar near the low. Look to exit with about 30-35 ticks. It never reversed before falling for a 2nd peak of 19 more tick after 4 more min to reach the S4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 24 ticks in 13 min to reach the 20 SMA.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/9/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.65/2.9
Actual: 2.60/2.6
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 136’16 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’11 – 1301:53 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’13 – 1301:58 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 136’10 – 1304 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 136’14 – 1312 (11 min)
4 ticks

Double Bottom @ 136’10 – 1314 (13 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’12 (just below the LOD) / 136’08 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 136’20 (just above the 200 SMA) / 136’23 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell a bit from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 5 ticks, then quickly back off for only 2 ticks after 5 sec. This would have filled the inner tier then hovered between 1 and 2 ticks of profit. Look to exit there. It fell for 1 more tick on the :04 bar, then traded sideways between the LOD and PP Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.9.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/9/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 136’12
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 136’09 – 1400:27 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Reversal to 136’15 – 1402:10 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Pullback to 136’09 – 1405 (5 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 136’31 – 1435 (35 min)
22 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 136’07 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD) / 136’03 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 136’17 (on the OOD / 200 SMA) / 136’21 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The minutes offered very little surprise to essentially say that the tapering of QE3 would continue on pace. This caused a muted reaction as the bonds only fell 3 ticks, then reversed about 2 min later. The behavior was typical, just smaller movement. This would have missed your inner long entry by 2 ticks, so cancel the order. After the reversal, it fell for a double bottom to the S1 Mid Pivot, then reversed for 22 ticks in the next 30 min as it eclipsed the R1 Pivot and extended the HOD.

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