US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 202014

7/10/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.44/2.7
Actual: 3.37/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’08 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’02 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 137’07 – 1303 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 136’29 – 1342 (41 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 137’04 – 1353 (52 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell slightly from last month, but the demand fell off a bit. This caused the bonds to spike short for a small reaction of 6 ticks that started on the R1 Pivot and 100/50 SMAs, then fell. With JOBB you would have filled short at 137’05 with no slippage, then seen it hover between your fill point and +2 ticks for about 30 sec. You could have exited there, or waited for the secondary drop which fell nicely after 10 min to the R1 Mid pivot for another 2 ticks beyond the 1st peak allowing up to 4-5 ticks to be captured. Then the final peak fell another 3 ticks after another 30 min. after that it reversed for 7 ticks in 11 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.10.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 212014

7/10/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 316K
Actual: 304K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009874 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009872 – 0.009875 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Delayed Peak @ 0.009884 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.009878 – 0837 (7 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009864 (on the R1 Pivot) / 0.009854 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 0.009882 (just above the HOD) / 0.009894 (on the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 12k less jobs lost than the forecast. It was almost like the market was not paying attention as there was no impulse after the release as the :31 bar only moved 3 ticks. The movement would have been well inside of the inner tiers, so cancel the order. It ended up causing a delayed long move of 10 ticks on the :34 bar to the HOD, then a reversal of 6 ticks 3 min later.

ZC 12-15 (1 Min) 7.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Aug 252015

7/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 441.75
1st Peak @ 436.00 – 1200:19 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 442.50 – 1200:37 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 434.25 – 1201:46 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 449.00 – 1229 (29 min)
59 ticks

Pullback to 444.50 – 1238 (38 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused short spike of 23 ticks in 19 sec that eclipsed the S1 Mid Pivot / LOD. With JOBB and a 5 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 440.50 with no slippage, then look to exit at about 436.75 with 15 ticks where it hovered for 10 sec at the S1 Mid Pivot. After that it reversed 26 ticks to the R1 Pivot in 18 sec before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 1 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 59 ticks in 27 min after crossing the R2 Pivot and extending the HOD before pulling back 18 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot / 50 SMA in 9 min.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 7.11.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Jul 242014

7/11/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1087.25 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1096.00 – 1200:39 and 1200:44 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 1075.50 – 1202:52 (3 min)
82 ticks

Pullback to 1081.00 – 1204 (4 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1065.00 – 1211 (11 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 1083.75 – 1215 (15 min)
75 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case it would have been tame between 26 and 33 seconds for a safe setup. With the anchor point of 1087.25, your long entry would have filled at 1089 with 1 tick of slippage, then allowed up to 28 ticks to be captured, so a 25 tick profit target would have been perfect. The top was short lived as it eclipsed the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot and nearly hit the HOD then fell 82 ticks in about 2 min to eclipse the S2 Pivot. After a quick pullback of 22 ticks, it fell another 64 ticks in about 7 min to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 75 ticks to nearly reach the 50 SMA before it collapsed and settled down.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.17.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 042014

7/17/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 310K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009854 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009862 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009858 – 0834:27 (5 min)
)))-4 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009846 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009834 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009864 (just below the R3 Pivot) / 0.009874 (just above the R4 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 10k less jobs lost than the forecast. Building Permits / Housing Starts were released at the same time and came in disappointing. This caused an 8 tick long spike that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot. The move would have probably missed the inner tier short order by 1 or 2 ticks, so cancel the order. After the spike it took over 4 min to reverse for a meager 4 ticks, so if you have been filled, you would have had an opportunity to exit between 1 and 4 ticks. After that it was tame and traded sideways.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.18.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Aug 042014

7/18/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 83.5
Actual: 81.3
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009866 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009866 – 0.009867 – 0831 (1 min)
)))1 tick
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009858 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.009851 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009874 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009880 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in lower than the forecast by 2.2 points causing no reaction as the :56 bar barely moved. With no impulse, It did not leave an opportunity to move the order closer either, so cancel the order.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.24.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 042014

7/24/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 310K
Actual: 284K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009836 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009828 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009833 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009836 – 0833 (3 min)
8 ticks

Double Bottom @ 0.009828 – 0840 (10 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009836 – 0903 (33 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009828 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009818 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009845 (just below the 200 SMA/S1 Pivot) / 0.009855 (between the PP/S1 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Report came in impressive with 26k less jobs lost than the forecast and also came in well under 300K for the first time in years. This caused an 8 tick short spike that crossed the S3 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD then retreated quickly. The move would have filled your inner long entry if you used 8 ticks, but would have missed if anything larger. If filled, look to exit at about 0.009833 with 5 ticks in the later part of the :31 bar as the strongly biased news is likely to cause a drop again. It continued to reverse for 3 more ticks in the next 2 min to reach the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a double bottom 7 min later and reversed for 8 ticks after another 23 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

CL 09-14 (1 Min) 7.16.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 072014

7/16/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.09M
Actual: -7.53M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 0.17M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.76M
Actual: 2.53M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 99.73
1st Peak @ 100.34 – 1031:46 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 99.89 – 1054 (24 min)
45 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.41 – 1118 (48 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 99.92 – 1147 (77 min)
49 ticks

Notes: large draw in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a greater gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a lesser gain was expected. Overall, the large draw on the crude drove the results as we saw a large long spike of 61 ticks over 2 bars that crossed the R3 Mid Pivot. It kept steadily climbing with the only real resistance barrier being the HOD. After the third challenge, it rose higher to attack the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 99.87 with 4 ticks of slippage. Given the strong results, you could have played it conservative and exited at about 100.05 or waited for the impulse to go another 20 or so ticks. This would have allowed up to 40+ ticks to be captured. After the peak, it reversed for 45 ticks in 24 min to the 50 SMA. Then it rallied for a minor 2nd peak of 7 more ticks after another 24 min before falling 49 ticks in about 30 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 09-14 (1 Min) 7.23.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 072014

7/23/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -2.79M
Actual: -3.97M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.30M
Actual: 3.38M
Distillates
Forecast: 2.06M
Actual: 1.64M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 102.61
1st Peak @ 102.95 – 1031:12 (2 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 102.53 – 1035 (5 min)
42 ticks

2nd Peak @ 103.34 – 1121 (51 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 102.67 – 1221 (111 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the draw on the crude drove the initial reaction as we saw a long spike of 34 ticks over 2 bars that crossed the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 102.73 with 2 ticks of slippage. It rose to test the R2 Mid Pivot before showing signs of abating, so look to exit at about 102.90 for about 17 ticks. After the peak, it reversed strongly in 4 min back to the 200 SMA as the gasoline results took over. Then it rallied for a slow developing 2nd peak of 39 more ticks in the next 45 min, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 67 ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next hour. These large swings are typical of a bipolar reaction when Gas and crude are divergent.

CL 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 072014

7/30/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.47M
Actual: -3.70M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.26M
Actual: 0.37M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.51M
Actual: 0.79M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 101.44
1st Peak @ 101.67 – 1030:58 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 101.01 – 1034 (4 min)
66 ticks

Continued Reversal to 100.76 – 1041 (11 min)
91 ticks

Pullback to 101.25 – 1053 (23 min)
49 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected. Overall, the reaction should have been decisively long with all products showing less supply, but that was not the case as it struggles to achieve 23 ticks then collapsed after hitting the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 101.54 with no slippage. It rose to hover briefly around 101.58, then fell to the 100 SMA after 30 sec before climbing to hi the HOD. The stop would hav absorbed the heat, so after seeing the initial reaction, look for a conservative target between the R2 Mid Pivot and HOD for about 7-10 ticks. After the :31 bar, it fell dramatically for 66 ticks in 3 min to the R1 Pivot. Then it fell another 25 ticks after a brief pullback to reach the PP Pivot and LOD. After that it pulled back for 49 ticks in 12 min to reach the 50 SMA.

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