US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09-14 (1 Min) 8.6.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 072014

8/6/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.71M
Actual: -1.76M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.30M
Actual: -4.39M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.88M
Actual: -1.80M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.88
1st Peak @ 97.65 – 1030:25 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 98.10 – 1036 (6 min)
45 ticks

Pullback to 97.72 – 1043 (13 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 98.13 – 1103 (33 min)
41 ticks

Final Peak @ 97.19 – 1200 (90 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 102.67 – 1221 (111 min)
67 ticks

Notes: Matching draw in inventories, while gasoline saw a healthy draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a modest gain was expected. The large draw in gas should have taken the lead to drive a large spike, but we saw a long head fake then a short move of 33 ticks that hit the 200 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have avoided the long head fake by 1 tick, then filled short at 97.78 with no slippage. It fell to the 200 SMA quickly then hovered for over 30 sec. Look to exit with about 10 ticks. After that it reversed for 45 ticks in the next 5 min, then fell back to the 200 SMA in the next 7 min. Then it reversed to the HOD in the next 20 min. Finally it fell slowly and methodically for a final peak of 36 more ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in the next hour. With the Crude matching, we saw a very strange reaction.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.15.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 082014

7/15/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.3% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 136’29
1st Peak @ 137’04 – 0830:03 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 136’28 – 0830:26 (1 min)
-8 ticks

Pullback to 137’01 – 0834 (4 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 136’21 – 0855 (25 min)
12 ticks

Notes: This report was mistakenly listed as a bracket trade when it should have been a Trap Trade with the Empire State Manufacturing Index double booked. The Retail sales came in under the forecast by 0.1% on the core reading and 0.4% on the regular reading while the Empire State came in 8.4 pts above the forecast to offset. This caused a shortly sustained long reaction of 7 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP/R1 Pivots, then fell after 23 sec back to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 137’01 with 1 tick of slippage, then been stopped with a 4 tick loss with no slippage. After the reversal, it pulled back for 5 ticks in 3 min, crossing the 100 SMA. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in the next 21 min to the S2 Mid Pivot while extending the LOD. Even with the stop out on the initial reaction, it would have been a good play to enter a short trade on the 100 SMA at 137’00 when it hovered there for about 5 min using a stop of 2-3 ticks above the 200 SMA / PP Pivot. This would have allowed about 8 ticks to be captured in 10 min as it reached the S1 Pivot.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.25.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Aug 102014

7/25/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.8%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -0.9%
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009818 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009813 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009823 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))10 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009808 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 0.009799 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009829 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.009837 (just above the R1 Pivot/HOD)

Notes: Report came in mildly stronger than the forecast across the board with the core reading exceeding the forecast by 0.2%, and the regular reading exceeding the forecast by 0.3% with modest upward revisions. This caused a dull 5 tick short move that took all of the :31 bar to fall. With the Trap Trade, this would have been well inside your inner tiers, so cancel the order after 20 sec. It reversed for 10 ticks in the next 2 min, then flattened and traded sideways for about 45 min as the news was forgotten.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.29.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Aug 162014

7/29/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 85.5
Actual: 90.9
Previous revision: +1.2 to 86.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009805
1st Peak @ 0.009799 – 1000:05 (1 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009796 – 1016 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009800 – 1034 (34 min)
4 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a moderate upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short reaction of only 6 ticks that started on the 50 / 200 SMAs and fell to cross the 100 SMA and S3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009801 with no slippage then allowed an exit of 1-2 ticks as it hovered near the bottom of the bar. Then it traded sideways for 6 min before falling 3 more ticks for a 2nd peak to the S3 Pivot. Then it reversed 4 ticks to the 50 SMA after another 18 min. Overall not much volatility here, but these are the dog days of summer.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Aug 172014

7/30/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 234K
Actual: 218K
Previous revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE (DULL – NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009778 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009786 – 0815:06 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009780 – 0815:48 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Double Top @ 0.009786 – 0820 (5 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009768 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot) / 0.009758 (just below the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009787 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.009798 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in mildly worse than the forecast by 16k jobs causing a quick and unsustainable long spike of 8 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs and the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it retreated 6 ticks in 42 sec to nearly reach the S2 Pivot. That would have just missed the inner short entry by 1 tick, unless you had it below the S1 Pivot in which case you would have an opportunity to capture about 5 ticks in the middle of the :16 bar. After the reversal, it achieved a double top in 4 min, then stalled around the 200 SMA as the Advance GDP report was released at 0830.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 7.31.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 172014

7/31/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 303K
Actual: 302K
TRAP TRADE (DULL -NO FILL)
Anchor Point @ 0.009723 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009710 – 0832:10 (3 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009718 – 0836:20 (7 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 0.009710 – 0841 (11 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009721 – 0857 (27 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009713 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.009704 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009732 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009741 (above the PP Pivot/ HOD)

Notes: Report came in matching with only 1k offset to cause a tame slow developing short reaction of 13 ticks over 2+ min. The move only fell 6 ticks as of 20 sec into the bar, so cancel the order. It continued falling another 7 ticks to cross the S1 Mid Pivot, then retreated 8 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA. After that it fell for a double bottom, then reversed 11 ticks in about 16 min to reach the 100 SMA.

6J 09-14 (1 Min) 8.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 182014

8/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 56.1
Actual: 57.1
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009737
1st Peak @ 0.009729 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009724 – 1004 (4 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009742 – 1018 (18 min)
18 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009774 – 1054 (54 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report came in moderately above the forecast with a deviation of 1.0 pts. This caused a quick short spike of 8 ticks that backed off briefly, then fell back to test the 100 SMA again. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 009733 with no slippage, then seen it struggle with the 100 SMA, R1 Mid Pivot, and OOD for about 2 min. Then it finally fell to bottom at the 200 SMA and PP Pivot. As those are the strongest barriers on the chart, get out there if you are still in for up to 8 ticks. After the 2nd peak was reached, it reversed for 18 ticks in the next 14 min as a perfect setup for a reversal trade. It crossed the 100/50 SMAs and could not reach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it traded sideways before climbing another 32 ticks in 36 min to nearly reach the R3 Pivot.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

Advance GDP Comments Off

Aug 182014

7/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 4.0%
Previous Revision: -3.0% to -2.9%
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 138’25 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 138’10 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 138’16 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Pullback to138’07 – 0830:56 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 138’15 – 0837 (7 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 138’00 – 0923 (53 min)
25 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 138’17 (just below the S1 Pivot/ LOD) / 138’08 (just above the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 139’02 (on the HOD) / 139’11 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strongly impressive to continue the 2014 drama saga with the GDP reports as it came in 0.9% above the forecast. This caused a large short spike of 15 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs near the origin, and the S2 Mid Pivot. This would have filled the inner long tier at 138’17 initially, then the outer tier at 138’08 on the pullback late in the :31 bar. With an average position of 138’14, be patient and wait for the reversal to come back up to the 13 SMA. The :37 bar that eclipsed the S2 Mid pivot and reached the 13 SMA would have been the ideal exit for 0-3 ticks total profit. Then it fell and seesawed around the S2 Mid Pivot for about 45 min before pushing lower for another 7 ticks about 53 min after the report. A good example of how the Trap Trade can accommodate a strongly decisive report.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 182014

7/30/2014 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.15/2.4
Actual: 2.25/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 137’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 137’14 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 137’18 – 1304 (3 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 137’12 – 1310 (9 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 137’21 – 1339 (38 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks about 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 2.25 rose from the dip of last month while the bid to cover ratio was very strong at 2.6. This caused a large 7 tick short move at :35 sec into the 02 bar as it crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 137’18 with 1 tick of slippage. It would have fallen and hovered for about 30 sec within 1 tick of the low to allow an exit with 3-4 ticks. Since it crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD after a large bearish trend, do not wait to exit after presented a good opportunity. It reversed for 4 ticks in 2 min to the S3 Pivot, then fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks after 6 min. Then it reversed for 9 ticks to the 100 SMA in the next 29 min.

ZB 09-14 (1 Min) 7.30.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 182014

7/30/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 137’18
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 137’12 – 1400:41 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 137’23 – 1401:50 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 137’30 – 1412 (12 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 137’14 – 1438 (38 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 137’11 (just below the LOD) / 137’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 137’25 (just above the 200 SMA) / 138’01 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED chose to continue tapering QE3 by $10B as expected down to $25B a month, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. This caused a short move of 6 ticks in 41 sec to touch the LOD then reverse for 11 ticks in the next 70 sec. This would have just missed your inner long entry, so cancel the order. Any follow on trades are discouraged as there is very little predictable. It continued to reverse for another 7 ticks in the next 10 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then pulled back for 16 ticks in the next 26 min.

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