US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Apr 182015

4/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 376.25
1st Peak @ 375.00 – 1200:34 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 378.75 – 1202 (2 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 376.00 – 1204 (4 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 380.00 – 1214 (14 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a slow developing dull reaction of only 5 ticks short in 34 sec. to the LOD. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with no fill after 15 sec. After the peak, it reversed 15 ticks in 1 min to the OOD before pulling back 11 ticks to the 100/50 SMAs and S1 Pivot in 2 min. Then it reversed 16 ticks in 10 min to the PP Pivot / HOD.

ZS 11-14 (1 Min) 10.10.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Oct 132014

10/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 940.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 948.50 – 1200:45 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 942.00 – 1200:57 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 951.25 – 1201:38 (2 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 934.25 – 1205 (5 min)
68 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been safe to trade but likely seen excessive slippage. It would have been tame as it hovered near the PP Pivot to provide an anchor point at 940.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 941.50 with no slippage, then climbed another 28 ticks in only 13 sec to cross the R1 Pivot and hover to present an ideal exit for about 25 ticks. After that it reversed 26 ticks in 12 sec then rallied for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in the next 40 sec as it eclipsed the R2 mid Pivot. Then it reversed 68 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA and S1 Pivot. After that it rallied one more time to the R1 Pivot, then collapsed to the LOD as the session closed.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 9.30.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Oct 142014

9/30/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 92.2
Actual: 86.0
Previous revision: +1.0 to 93.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009124
1st Peak @ 0.009132 – 1000:00 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.009120 – 1017 (17 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009137 – 1034 (34 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009118 – 1108 (68 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin with a moderate upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a relatively muted long reaction of 8 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.009128 with no slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.009131 for 3 ticks where it hovered late in the :01 bar on the S1 Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 12 ticks in 17 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks after 17 min. After that it fell 19 ticks to the S2 Pivot in the next 34 min.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 9.25.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Oct 162014

9/25/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 98B
Actual: 97B
SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 3.908
1st Peak @ 3.889 – 1030:00 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Reversal to 3.953 – 1030:25 (1 min)
64 ticks

Pullback to 3.928 – 1030:48 (1 min)
-25 ticks

Reversal to 3.972 – 1037 (7 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 3.922 – 1058 (28 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a near match on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of only 19 ticks to nearly reach the S1 Pivot, then hovering prior to a large reversal. There was minimal premature noise in the 20 sec leading up to the report. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.895 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 6 ticks of profit and 8 ticks loss in the the first 8 sec. This would have been a trigger to exit near breakeven along with the matching result. After 8 sec, it reversed 64 ticks in the next 17 sec to cross all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. Then it pulled back 25 ticks in the next 13 sec and remained in the area of the 200 SMA / PP Pivot as the bar expired. After that it reversed for 44 ticks in the next 6 min to extend the HOD and nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 50 ticks in the next 21 min to the 100 SMA.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 207K
Actual: 213K
Previous revision: -2K to 202K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009102 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009096 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009104 – 0815:59 (1 min)
)))8 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.009122 – 0824 (9 min)
26 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009131 – 0902 (47 min)
35 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009093 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.009083 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009110 (just above the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot / 0.009122 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast to cause a tame whipsaw that fell 6 ticks then reversed 8 ticks through the course of the :31 bar. That would have missed the inner short entry by 3 ticks, making it an easy decision to cancel the order. Since it was a near match and only moved 6 ticks from the origin, a manual entry would not be prudent. After the initial reversal of 8 ticks, it climbed another 18 ticks in 8 min to the PP Pivot, then another 9 ticks in 38 min to the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 192014

10/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.6
Actual: 56.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009134
1st Peak @ 0.009150 – 1000:08 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.009144 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009158 – 1006 (6 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.009135 – 1029 (29 min)
23 ticks

Continued reversal to 0.009127 – 1107 (67 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly short of the forecast with a deviation of 2.0 pts to reverse the strong reading of last month. This caused a long spike of 16 ticks that started just underneath the R1 Pivot and 20/13 SMAs and rose to reach the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.009141 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered for 7 sec on the R2 Pivot at 0.009149 for about 8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks. After that it reversed 23 ticks back to the origin in 23 min, then another 8 ticks in the next 38 min to the 200 SMA / OOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.2.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Oct 202014

10/2/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 287K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009198 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.009194 – 0.009200 – 0831 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009189 (At the area of support 0806) / 0.009180 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.009208 (on the 200 SMA) / 0.009217 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong with 12k offset. This caused a surprisingly dull reaction that only moved 6 ticks overall and 4 ticks from the anchor point. This would have fallen several ticks short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The market kept trading in a narrow range until about 0840 when it rallied on the ECB press conference news.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Oct 222014

10/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 58.5
Actual: 58.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.009121
1st Peak @ 0.009115 – 1000:01 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.009123 – 1000:22 (1 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 0.009114 – 1001:13 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009122 – 1008 (8 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report basically matched the forecast to cause a shortly sustained short reaction of 6 ticks that reversed after hitting the S3 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD 22. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.009117 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover for about 5 sec on four fill point before reversing. If you were quick you would have been able to exit at breakeven before the reversal. Otherwise, if you were caught with a few ticks in the red, be patient and wait for it to come back. You would have seen 6 ticks of heat, then watched it fall into the :02 bar to hover at +2 ticks. With the down trend already in place from the NFP report 90 min earlier and a match, it is unlikely to go long. It reversed 8 ticks in 6 min as it continued to flirt with the S3 Mid Pivot, unable to penetrate until about 20 min later.

ES 12-14 (1 Min) 10.3.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Oct 222014

10/3/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 216K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 248K
Previous Revision: +38K to 180K
Rate Forecast: 6.1%
Rate Actual: 5.9%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1948.50 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1951.75 – 0830:13 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 1945.50 – 0830:58 (1 min)
)))-25 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 1953.75 – 0832:27 (3 min)
)))21 ticks (33 ticks from reversal)

)))Reversal to 1950.50 – 0833:12 (4 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Double Top @ 1953.75 – 0844 (14 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 1946.75 – 0859 (29 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1942.00 (on the R1 Mid Pivot) / 1938.00 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 1955.00 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1958.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Strongly positive report with 32K more jobs added than the forecast, a large upward revision to the previous report and an improvement of 0.2% on the U-3 rate to 5.9%. We saw a small long spike of only 13 ticks in the first 13 sec to the HOD then a reversal of 25 ticks at the end of the bar that crossed all 3 Major SMAs. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks midway through the :33 bar. This would have fallen short of the inner short order, but the observation of hovering for about 7 sec near the HOD would have made it prudent to move the inner short entry to about 1951.00. After the reversal, this would have allowed up to 20 ticks to be captured. After the 2nd peak, it fell 13 ticks, before rallying for a double top 10 min later. Then it reversed back to the 200 SMA 15 min after that.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.8.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Oct 262014

10/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.54/2.7
Actual: 2.38/2.5
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 140’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’03 – 1302:32 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’06 – 1307:45 (7 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Double Bottom @ 140’02 – 1318 (17 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 140’06 – 1322 (21 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 140’07 (just below the PP Pivot) / 140’03 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 140’16 (on the 100 SMA) / 140’19 (on the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for a large decisive spike of 8 ticks. This would have filled both of your long entries in a staggered fashion, then hovered near the outer tier fill point for nearly 5 min. Be patient and wait for a small reversal, but move your stop to 140’00. It rebounded 4 ticks after 5 min to reach the 13 SMA, then hovered for about 1 min to allow an easy exit with 1 tick of profit. Then it continued to trade between the LOD and 140’06 until the FOMC meeting minutes at 1400.

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