US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.23.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/23/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 269K
Actual: 283K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.009288
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009282 – 0830:57 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009286 – 0831:24 (2 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009280 (just below the S3 Pivot) / 0.009269 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009297 (in between the 100/50 SMAs) / 0.009307 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately weak with 14k offset. This caused a slow short spike of only 6 ticks that started on the falling 13 SMA and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the slow movement and small reaction. After peaking near the end of the bar, it reversed only 4 ticks in the next 27 sec, then traded sideways around the S3 Mid Pivot.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 10.16.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/16/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 91B
Actual: 94B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.811
1st Peak @ 3.744 – 1030:00 (1 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 3.770 – 1033 (3 min)
26 ticks

Pullback to 3.748 – 1036 (6 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 3.798 – 1114 (44 min)
50 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick short spike of 67 ticks that nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot and snapped back. It started on the PP Pivot / OOD then fell to trade below the S1 Pivot. There was some premature noise in the 10 sec leading up to the report that we would have safely avoided. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 3.775 with about 26 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between the S1 Pivot and 3.750. Look to exit on the low end of the range for about 15-20 ticks. After that it reversed for 26 ticks on the :33 bar, then pulled back 22 ticks. Then it reversed 50 ticks in 38 min to the 100 SMA.

NG 11-14 (1 Min) 10.23.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 092014

10/23/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 97B
Actual: 94B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.617
1st Peak @ 3.675 – 1030:00 (1 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 3.624 – 1031:31 (2 min)
51 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.683 – 1056 (26 min)
66 ticks

Reversal to 3.645 – 1117 (47 min)
38 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly smaller gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a quick long spike of 58 ticks that reached the PP Pivot and snapped back. It started just above the 100 SMA then rose to trade above the S1 Mid Pivot. There was no premature noise. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 3.649 with about 22 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between the S1 Mid and PP Pivots. Look to exit on the high end of the range for about 15-20 ticks. After that it reversed for 51 ticks on the :32 bar back to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it stepped higher in the next 24 min to eclipse the PP Pivot for a final peak of 8 more ticks before reversing 38 ticks in 21 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA.

CL 11-14 (1 Min) 10.16.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 112014

10/16/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: 2.78M
Actual: 8.92M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.20M
Actual: -4.00M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.52M
Actual: -1.52M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 81.04
1st Peak @ 80.95 – 1100:04 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 81.14 – 1100:11 (1 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 80.61 – 1103 (3 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 81.80 – 1124 (24 min)
119 ticks

Notes: Strong gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a matching modest draw. This caused a dull and indecisive reaction initially as it fell only 9 ticks in a choppy manner, then reversed 19 ticks after 11 sec. This would have been an easy cancel with JOBB as the 10 tick buffer would have contained the short move and the choppy reaction would have also been a trigger to cancel. It eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 34 more ticks to the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 119 ticks to cross the PP Pivot and extend the HOD after 21 min. We see the 3 min reversal would have been a great play here to buy on or above the 200 SMA, then look for 15-20 ticks.

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 10.22.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 112014

10/22/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.69M
Actual: 7.11M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: -1.30M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.27M
Actual: 1.05M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 82.54
1st Peak @ 81.61 – 1032:21 (3 min)
93 ticks

Reversal to 82.29 – 1049 (19 min)
68 ticks

Continued Reversal to 82.84 – 1136 (66 min)
123 ticks

Pullback to 81.50 – 1206 (96 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Strong gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a modest draw was expected. This caused a decisive short spike of 93 ticks over 3 bars that started on the OOD and fell to reach the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have been filled short at about 82.40 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen the profit rack up after a few sec as it initially struggled to breach the S1 Mid Pivot. With about 30 ticks on the board, a profit target would have filled, otherwise, exit near the S1 Mid Pivot as a reversal is highly possible. It continued to fall another 31 ticks in the next 2 bars to the S1 Pivot, then it reversed strongly for 68 ticks in 16 min and another 55 ticks in the next 47 min. Then it fell for 134 ticks in 30 min to target the S1 Pivot again. We see the 3 min reversal would have been a great play here to buy above the S1 Pivot, then look for 15-20 ticks.

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 10.29.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 112014

10/29/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.37M
Actual: 2.06M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.99M
Actual: -1.24M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.16M
Actual: -5.29M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 82.16
1st Peak @ 82.41 – 1030:01 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 82.23 – 1030:44 (1 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 82.56 – 1033 (3 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 82.08 – 1044 (14 min)
48 ticks

Final Peak @ 82.88 – 1130 (60 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 82.41 – 1206 (96 min)
47 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger modest draw when a modest draw was expected, and distillates saw a healthy draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a decisive long spike of 25 ticks immediately that recoiled after crossing all 3 Major SMAs on top of each other. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 82.29 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it hover and fall about 10 ticks after 5 sec. In this case the best play is to place a profit target a handful of ticks above the SMAs while also moving your stop up to about 82.20 (-9 ticks). You would have secured a few ticks as it made a push upward later in the bar, or on the :32/33 bars as it climbed another 15 ticks. After that it reversed 48 ticks in 11 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it climbed for a delayed final peak of 32 more ticks after 46 min to extend the HOD, before reversing 47 ticks in 36 min to the 100 SMA. We see the 3 min reversal would have been a great play here to sell below the R3 Mid Pivot, then look for 15-20 ticks.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.28.2014

Durable Goods Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/28/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: -1.3%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -18.4%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009253 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009273 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))20 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009265 – 0831:05 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.9287 – 0837 (7 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 0.009272 – 0848 (18 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009149 (on the LOD) / 0.009142 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.009262 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.009272 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: Solidly bearish report caused a stable and decisive long reaction. The Core reading and broader reading fell short by 0.7% and 1.7% with small downward previous revisions. It started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot for 20 ticks in 7 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately, then filled your outer short entry about 5 sec later. With an average position of 0.009267, you would have had an opportunity to exit with 1-2 ticks just after the :32 bar opened. Look to exit there as a 2nd peak is likely forthcoming. Remember this is like the whipsaw case to the bracket trade, so exiting around breakeven or even a few ticks profit is a great outcome. After the reversal, it climbed another 14 ticks on a 2nd peak in 5 min to reach the PP Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it reversed to the 20 SMA and S1 Pivot for 15 ticks in 11 min. After that it climbed for a double top, then reversed again as the market opened.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 10.28.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/28/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 87.4
Actual: 94.5
Previous revision: +3.0 to 89.0
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.009267
1st Peak @ 0.009253 – 1000:01 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.009258 – 1002 (2 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009250 – 1006 (6 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.009265 – 1022 (22 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a healthy margin with a large upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a large short reaction of 14 ticks that started just below the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the 200 SMA and S2 Pivot. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.009161 with 3 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.009254 for 7 ticks where it hovered for most of the bar. After the peak it reversed for 5 ticks on the :02 bar then fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, just short of the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 15 ticks in 16 min to the 50/200 SMAs.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.29.2014

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Nov 162014

10/29/2014 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’01
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 140’25 – 1400:00 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’00 – 1400:02 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))2nd Peak @ 140’16 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))-17 ticks

)))Reversal to 140’26 – 1401:30 (2 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Pullback to 140’17 – 1402:08 (3 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 141’05 – 1405 (5 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 140’25 (just above the LOD) / 140’17 (just below the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 141’08 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 141’16 (above the S1 Mid Pivot / OOD)

Notes: The FED chose to finish tapering QE3 by the last $15B as expected, saying nothing significant has happened to cause a deviation from the course of action. They also pledged to maintain interest rates low for a considerable time after the QE ends but the statement was deemed more hawkish than expected. This caused an immediate stab short of 8 ticks and snap back. This would have filled your inner long entry and allowed a quick exit with 6-7 ticks. If you were not fast enough, the secondary fall would have filled the outer tier, then eventually reversed back to the SMAs and S2 Pivot allowing a combined total of 18 ticks to be captured after 4 min. It reversed all the way to cross the S2 Mid Pivot and 200 SMA. After that it chopped sideways between the original LOD location and S2 Mid Pivot before settling into a long trend into the session close.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 10.30.2014

Advance GDP Comments Off

Nov 172014

10/30/2014 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 3.1%
Actual: 3.5%
Previous Revision: +0.6% to 4.6%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’24 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’14 – 0830:09 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’21 – 0830:11 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Pullback to141’17 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’26 – 0831:49 (2 min)
)))9 ticks
————
Pullback to 141’19 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 142’02 – 0859 (29 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 141’14 (just below the OOD, on the R1 Pivot)
Short entry – 142’03 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately strong beating the forecast by 0.4%. This caused a short spike of 10 ticks that crossed all 3 Major SMAs near the origin, and reached the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot. Depending on your placement, this would have filled the inner long tier at 141’14 or just missed if lower. If lower, manually move the tier up as it hovered for 7 sec on the OOD. Then it reversed 7 ticks after 11 sec, and another 5 ticks into the :32 bar to allow up to 11-12 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to cross the 200 SMA, then reversed 15 ticks to nearly reach the R2 Pivot after 23 min.

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