US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 87.3
Actual: 89.4
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008577 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008570 – 0956:52 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008575 – 0957:38 (3 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008603 – 1007 (12 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 0.008587 – 1011 (16 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008572 (just below the S3 Pivot) / 0.008561 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008583 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008593 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points causing a slow 7 tick short spike after nearly 2 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Since it only moved 4 ticks initially then retreated 2 ticks, do not look for a manual entry and cancel the order after 20 sec. After peaking it reversed 5 ticks in about 45 sec, then another 28 ticks in 9 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA and traded sideways.

ES 12-14 (1 Min) 11.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 235K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 214K
Previous Revision: +8K to 256K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2029.00 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2026.25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 2033.50 – 0831:33 (2 min)
)))29 ticks
————
Pullback to 2028.75 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 2032.75 – 0847 (17 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2023.75 – 0912 (42 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2022.50 (on the PP Pivot) / 2019.00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 2034.75 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 2039.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report with 21K less jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and an improvement of 0.1% on the U-3 rate to 5.8%. We saw a small short spike of only 11 ticks in the first 1 sec to nearly reach the LOD then a reversal of 29 ticks in the next 90 sec that crossed the HOD. This would have fallen short of the inner long order, and not allowed a manual entry as it rebounded quickly. After the reversal, it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 16 ticks in 13 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 25 min as it extended the LOD and kept stepping lower for slightly lower lows over the next 2 hrs.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.12.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.38/2.5
Actual: 2.37/2.5
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 141’05 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’01 – 1301:36 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’04 – 1302:36 (2 min)
)))3 ticks
————
Pullback to 141’00 – 1309 (8 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 141’06 – 1322 (21 min)
6 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’01 (just below the R1 Pivot) / 140’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 141’10 (just above the 100 SMA) / 141’13 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest was unchanged from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop short for 4 ticks to the R1 Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry if it was placed at 141’01, but not lower. It reversed 3 ticks to the R2 Mid Pivot after about a minute to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 4 ticks in the next 6 min before reversing 6 ticks to the R2 Pivot and 50 SMA. After that it continued to trend lower to resume the sentiment from before the auction.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.07/2.4
Actual: 3.09/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 141’05 (1301)
1st Peak @ 140’29 – 1301:44 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 141’04 – 1311 (10 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 141’15 – 1438 (97 min)
18 ticks

Pullback to 141’04 – 1526 (145 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose slightly from last month, and the demand remained about the same. This caused the bonds to fall 8 ticks in 14 sec then hover below the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 141’01 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it settle to hover within 1 tick of 140’30. Look to exit there with about 3 ticks. After that it reversed 7 ticks in the next 9 min to the 100/200 SMAs, then another 11 ticks in the next 87 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 48 min to cross the 200 SMA.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’04
1st Peak @ 140’31 – 0830:06 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 141’04 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 140’27 – 0840 (10 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 141’07 – 0859 (29 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly strong, exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% margins with an upward previous revision on the core reading. Import Prices also released at the same time, exceeding the forecast. This caused a short spike for 5 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to the S1 Pivot and hovered. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 141’01 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover between 141’00 and 140’31. Look to exit there for 1-2 ticks. After that it reversed back to the origin at the beginning of the :32 bar then chopped lower for a final peak of 4 more ticks after 8 min, nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the PP Pivot in 19 min.

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/5/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.90M
Actual: 0.46M
Gasoline
Forecast: -1.00M
Actual: -1.38M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.95M
Actual: -0.72M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 78.05
1st Peak @ 78.21 – 1030:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 77.75 – 1031:04 (2 min)
46 ticks

Final Peak @ 79.35 – 1054 (24 min)
130 ticks

Reversal to 77.63 – 1126 (56 min)
172 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a moderate gain was expected, while gasoline saw a slightly larger moderate draw than what was expected, and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a whipsaw initially as the price climbed 16 ticks in the first second then fell 14 ticks immediately. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 78.17 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped out to the tick for 15 ticks loss on the next second at 78.02. It continued to chop around without conviction as it reversed 46 ticks in the next minute to the R1 Pivot, then climbed for a 2nd peak of 114 more ticks in the next 22 min as it reached the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 172 ticks in the next 32 min as it crossed the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot. The small deviations from the forecasts to the actual results caused initial instability followed by large swings.

CL 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/13/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 0.75M
Actual: -1.74M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.52M
Actual: 1.81M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.33M
Actual: -2.80M
DULL REACTION (NO FILL)
Started @ 75.75
1st Peak @ 75.88 – 1100:14 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 75.32 – 1100:54 (1 min)
56 ticks

Pullback to 75.64 – 1110 (10 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 75.16 – 1128 (28 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain when a modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a larger moderate draw when a moderate draw was expected. This caused a dull reaction initially that took 12 sec to break outside of 10 ticks away from the origin. You should have cancelled the order after 10 sec with no impulse and we see a failure to do that would have presented an undesirable fill long just before it reversed. It peaked at 13 ticks after 14 sec to reach the 100 SMA, then reversed 56 ticks late in the :01 bar to cross the S3 Mid Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it pulled back 32 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA. After that it chopped sideways on the S3 Mid Pivot then reversed 48 ticks in 18 min.

ES 12-14 (1 Min) 12.5.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 232014

12/5/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 231K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 321K
Previous Revision: +29K to 243K
Rate Forecast: 5.8%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2074.75 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2077.00 – 0830:24 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 2068.50 – 0831:38 (2 min)
)))-34 ticks
————
Pullback to 2075.25 – 0838 (8 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 2069.50 – 0905 (35 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2068.25 (just below the LOD) / 2064.75 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2081.00 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 2085.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Strong report with 90K more jobs added than the forecast, a healthy upward revision to the previous report and no change on the U-3 rate at 5.8%. We saw a small long spike of only 9 ticks in the first 24 sec to eclipse the HOD then a reversal of 34 ticks in the next 74 sec that crossed the PP Pivot and extended the LOD. This would have fallen short of the inner short order, and not allowed a manual entry as it did not hover. After the reversal, it pulled back 27 ticks in 6 min to the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 23 ticks in 27 min. After that it chopped in between the PP Pivot and HOD for the next few hours.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/6/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 86B
Actual: 91B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.156
1st Peak @ 4.111 – 1030:02 (1 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 4.179 – 1034 (4 min)
78 ticks

Pullback to 4.137 – 1038 (8 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 4.176 – 1045 (15 min)
39 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a short spike of 45 ticks after minimal premature volatility. The spike fell to cross the S1 Pivot then hovered for 4 sec before it started to back off. It retreated back to near the origin as the :31 bar expired, then continued to reverse for another 32 ticks in the next 3 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and 50 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 4.131 with 15 ticks of slippage. A profit target of about 15-20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise, look to exit near the S1 Pivot as it started to retreat to capture about 5-8 ticks. After the reversal it pulled back 41 ticks in 4 min. Then it reversed 39 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot and 100 SMA in the next 7 min.

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/14/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 37B
Actual: 40B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 4.032
1st Peak @ 3.981 – 1030:51 (1 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 4.020 – 1033 (3 min)
39 ticks

Final Peak @ 3.931 – 1123 (53 min)
101 ticks

Reversal to 4.056 – 1320 (170 min)
125 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a short spike of 28 ticks initially, then another 23 ticks after a minor retreat toward the end of the bar. The initial spike struggled with the 200 SMA, then was able to break free and fall to nearly reach the OOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at about 4.015 with about 7 ticks of slippage. It is unlikely a profit target would have filled on this report as only 13 ticks were available initially. With the small spike relative to the trend and a legitimate cause (200 SMA), it would be low risk to wait for a delayed drop to push lower. As it trickled lower and hovered for over 10 sec at 3.985, look to exit there with about 30 ticks. After that it reversed 39 ticks in 2 min to the 100 SMA. Then it stepped lower for a final peak of 50 more ticks in the next 50 min crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed 125 ticks in the next 2 hrs to reach to the HOD and PP Pivot.

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