US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.1.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 012015

Caption for 12/1:
12/1/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 57.9
Actual: 58.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION – FILL
Started @ 0.008480
1st Peak @ 0.008486 – 1000:09 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008472 – 1003 (3 min)
14 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008458 – 1014 (14 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.8 pts. This caused minimal choppy movement in the first 8 sec before finally resulting in a 6 tick long spike. You may have cancelled the order, but if not with JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008484 with no slippage, then look to exit at breakeven as it hovered there for 10 sec before drifting lower. After that it reversed 14 ticks in 2 min as it crossed the 20 SMA. Then it fell another 14 ticks in the next 11 min after crossing the 50/100 SMAs.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 223K
Actual: 208K
Previous revision: +3K to 233K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008383 – 0815:00 (1 min)
)))6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008373 – 0815:09 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008387 – 0828 (13 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 0853 (38 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008369 (just below the LOD) / 0.008357 (just above the S3 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008386 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (on the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 15k below the forecast to cause only a 6 tick long move immediately followed by a 10 tick reversal after 9 sec. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 12 more min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the OOD. Then it reversed 10 ticks in the next 25 min as it reached the 100 SMA and S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.3.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/3/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 57.5
Actual: 59.3
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008355
1st Peak @ 0.008348 – 1000:00 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1008 (8 min)
12 ticks

Pullback to 0.008349 – 1013 (13 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008359 – 1022 (22 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 1.8 points to cause a short spike of 7 ticks that started just below the S3 Pivot and fell to reach the S4 Mid Pivot then retreat. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008351 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it retreat to hover about 4 ticks in the red before falling again. The “whiplash” is due to hitting the S4 Mid Pivot while also extending the LOD. In this case since the report has enough of a disappointing result, be patient and wait for the secondary drop. It fell later in the bar to the fill point and hovered in the area for several min to allow an exit between breakeven and 1 tick loss. After that it reversed 12 ticks in the next 7 min to the 50 SMA before pulling back 11 ticks in 5 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 9 min and traded sideways around the S3 Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.4.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

12/4/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 296K
Actual: 297K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008338
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:25 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008340 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008329 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008320 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008347 (just above the OOD) / 0.008358 (just below the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 1k offset with no other news. This caused a dull reaction as we should expect that rose 5 ticks in 25 sec just below the S1 Mid Pivot then reversed only 3 ticks in the next 9 sec. This would have been well short of the inner short entry, so cancel the order. The erratic movement after 0837 is due to the ECB press conference.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 012015

Caption for 12/11:

12/11/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
Core Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.1%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008443
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008430 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008440 – 0831:54 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008385 – 0952 (82 min)
58 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 1000 (90 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008431 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008424 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008454 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008462 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: All the news came in strong to cause a short reaction of 13 ticks in 1 sec to eclipse the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare, then taken nearly 2 min to reverse for 10 ticks allowing about 8 ticks to be captured where it hovered. After that, the gravity of the report continued to pull the market lower for another 45 ticks in the next 80 min as it eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA. After that it continued to trade near the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jan 022015

ZB 03-15 (Second) 12_11_2014

12/11/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.4%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.7%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.5%
Unemployment claims
Forecast: 299K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 144’08 (shift to 144’06)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’29 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’06 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 144’02 – 0831:15 (2 min)
)))-4 ticks

)))Reversal to 144’08 – 0832:09 (3 min)
)))6 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 143’18 – 0937 (67 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 143’26 – 0958 (88 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 144’01 (no SMA / Pivot near) / 143’30 (on the OOD)
Short entries – 144’11 (just above the 100 SMA) / 144’14 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims with all results coming in stronger that the forecast. This caused a short move of 9 ticks initially that crossed the OOD / R1 Mid Pivot then retreated. This would have filled both long entries with 1 tick to spare for an average long position at 143’31.5. It reversed for 9 ticks quickly and hovered at 144’05 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 11 total ticks. After a pullback of 4 ticks, it reversed 6 ticks to provide a hovering exit at 144’06 for 13 total ticks. After that it fell for a final peak of 11 more ticks in the next hour after crossing the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 21 min back to the 50 SMA.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jan 022015

12/10/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.37/2.5
Actual: 2.21/3.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 143’11 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 143’14 – 1301:54 (1 min)
)))3 ticks

)))Reversal to 143’09 – 1302:21 (2 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 143’06 – 1305 (4 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 143’15 – 1314 (13 min)
4 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 143’07 (just below the PP Pivot / OOD) / 140’29 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entries – 143’15 (just above the 100 SMA / R1 Mid Pivot) / 143’04 (no SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month’s auction. This caused the ZB to pop long for only 3 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot as it crossed the 200 / 50 SMAs. This would have fallen 1 tick short of your inner short entry, so cancel the order. After the peak, it reversed 5 ticks in 27 sec then another 3 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the PP Pivot and OOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 1 more tick in the next 9 min to the R1 Mid Pivot and 100/200 SMAs all on top of each other.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 12.11.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jan 022015

12/11/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.09/2.3
Actual: 2.85/2.8
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 143’12 (1301)
1st Peak @ 143’28 – 1303:57 (3 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 143’21 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Double Top @ 143’28 – 1315 (14 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 143’15 – 1344 (43 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell strongly from last month, and the demand increased substantially. This caused the bonds to rise 10 ticks at 1:41 then continue to climb another 6 ticks in the next 2 min without any sizeable reversal. It started just above the LOD and rose to cross all 3 Major SMAs and the PP Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 143’18 with 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it slowly ascend to 143’28 to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 7 ticks in the next 3 min to the PP Pivot, before rebounding for a double top in 8 min. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 29 min as it fell to cross all 3 Major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot.

ZC 03-15 (1 Min) 2.10.2015

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Mar 132015

2/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) / Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 388.50
1st Peak @ 390.75 – 1200:09 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 388.50 – 1200:56 (1 min)
9 ticks

Double Top @ 390.75 – 1201:09 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 384.50 – 1204 (4 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 391.00 – 1218 (18 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 385.75 – 1342 (102 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a small roller coaster type reaction. It climbed only 9 ticks to reach the LOD in 9 sec, then hovered within 3 ticks of the top for 16 sec before reversing. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 389.75 with no slippage. Then it hovered around 390.00 for 16 sec to allow an exit for about 1-2 ticks. As it was a small reaction and hovered for a while, be sure to exit there. After that we saw a reversal of 9 ticks back to the origin as the bar was expiring then a rebound for a double top in 13 sec. Then it reversed 25 ticks in 2 min to cross the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. The roller coaster continued as it pulled back 26 ticks in 14 min to the HOD again, before reversing 21 ticks to the S1 Pivot in 84 min.

ZS 01-15 (1 Min) 12.10.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Jan 032015

ZS 01-15 (Second) 12_10_2014

12/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1040.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1048.00 – 1201:10 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 1041.75 – 1201:34 (2 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 1047.25 – 1201:57 (2 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1028.25 – 1226 (26 min)
50 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been marginally safe if you exited quickly, but the alternate approach wins out again. As usual, it would have been tame as it hovered around the S1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1040.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 1042.25 with no slippage, then you would have seen it climb steadily for about 40 sec for nearly a double top at the OOD. As it hovered for 7 sec and it was near the double top, look to exit there for about 20 ticks. It continued to swing as it reversed 25 ticks in the next 24 sec to the S1 Pivot followed by a pullback to just below the OOD as the :02 bar was expiring. Then it reversed 50 ticks in the next 24 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

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