US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 242014

11/20/2014 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -12B
Actual: -17B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 4.399
1st Peak @ 4.502 – 1031:21 (2 min)
103 ticks

Reversal to 4.384 – 1046 (16 min)
118 ticks

Extended Reversal to 4.315 – 1118 (48 min)
187 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger draw on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a long spike of 50 ticks initially then another 53 ticks over the next 80 sec without any significant retreat. The spike rose to find initial resistance just below the R1 Mid Pivot, then proceeded to target the HOD shifting it up. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at about 4.430 with 20+ ticks of slippage. A profit target of about 15-20 ticks would have filled immediately. Otherwise, a patient exit would have been prudent on this report as it did not hover until about 35 sec after the report at the HOD. An exit there would have secured 50+ ticks. After peaking in the middle of the :32 bar, it backed off to chop below the old HOD position for about 10 min, then reversed 118 ticks in the next 8 min as it crossed the OOD and 3 Major SMAs. Then it chopped sideways and fell another 69 ticks in the next 32 min, crossing the PP Pivot and extending the LOD.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Dec 272014

11/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 141’07 (shift to 141’09)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 141’14 – 1400:06 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 141’05 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 141’22 – 1418 (18 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 141’02 – 1446 (46 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 141’04 (just below the S2 Pivot) / 141’00 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 141’13 (on the S1 Pivot) / 141’17 (on the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: With tapering complete, the minutes revealed that the FED was still accommodative to dovish policy by keeping interest rates low and maintain patience to raise them. This caused a quick long spike of 5 ticks to the S1 Pivot in 6 sec that quickly retreated and fell 9 ticks in 23 sec to the S2 Pivot. The initial anchor point of 141’07 would have shifted 2 ticks higher as the :00 bar was expiring, so bias your orders slightly higher. This would have filled the inner short tier at 141’13 then fallen and hovered at 141’06 to allow 7 ticks to be captured easily. After that it ascended for a final peak of 8 more ticks after 17 more min to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed to cross the S2 Pivot and nearly reach the LOD in the next 28 min.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Dec 272014

11/25/2014 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 3.3%
Actual: 3.9%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 142’08
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 142’00 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 142’05 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 142’01 – 0834 (4 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 142’11 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Double Bottom @ 142’00 – 0906 (36 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 142’15 – 0948 (78 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 142’03 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD) / 142’01 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 142’13 (just above the 200/100 SMAs) / 142’15 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.6%, causing a short spike of 8 ticks in 6 sec that crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and LOD then retreated 5 ticks in the next 12 sec. This would have filled both the inner and outer long entries for a 2 tier fill making your average position 142’02. As it reversed, it hovered at 142’04 for 25 sec allowing an easy quick exit for 2 ticks (4 ticks total on the average position). After that it pulled back to 142’01 3 min later, then reversed 10 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs in the next 8 min. Then it fell for a double bottom after 24 min before reversing 15 ticks in 42 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/19/2014 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.04M
Actual: 1.08M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 1.03M
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.03M
Actual: 1.01M
Previous revision: +0.02 to 1.04M
DULL REACTION – NO FILL
Started @ 0.008506
1st Peak @ 0.008509 – 0831:47 (1 min)
3 ticks

Reversal to 0.008499 – 0835 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008512 – 0840 (10 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report was conflicting with the BLDG Permits exceeding the forecast by 0.04M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.02M. This caused a dull reaction that took nearly 2 min to climb 3 ticks. With JOBB, you should have cancelled the order with no fill after 10 sec. After the small peak, it reversed 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the LOD. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks after 5 min. After that it trickled lower as the report faded away.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 286K
Actual: 291K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008460
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008448 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008458 – 0832:43 (3 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008446 – 0837 (7 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008487 – 0850 (20 min)
41 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008451 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008440 (just below the S2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008470 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008478 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 5k offset while the concurrent CPI report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%. This caused an initial short spike of 12 ticks that eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot in 2 sec. It traded sideways around the S2 Mid Pivot for the entire bar before reversing. This would have filled your inner long entry with 3 ticks to spare. Since the reversal can take a few min to develop, be patient as it retreated 10 ticks in the next 3 min to the 13 SMA allowing about 6 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 12 ticks for a double bottom in 4 min. Then it reversed strongly for 41 ticks in the next 13 min, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and HOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 18.9
Actual: 40.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 0.008474
1st Peak @ 0.008458 – 1000:26 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008471 – 1002 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008452 – 1009 (9 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.008482 – 1025 (25 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a delta of about 22 pts, causing a delayed short spike of 16 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell after 23 sec to cross the S1 Pivot, 200 SMA, and OOD. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.008471 with no slippage on some early movement at 9 sec, then you would have seen it stall until 23 sec when it fell for another 14 ticks. It hovered at or below 0.008461 for 5 sec to allow an exit with 10 ticks. Then it reversed 13 ticks in the next min back to the 200 SMA before falling for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in the next 7 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 16 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.25.2014

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Dec 282014

11/25/2014 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EST)
Forecast: 95.9
Actual: 88.7
Previous revision: -0.4 to 94.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008477
1st Peak @ 0.008490 – 1000:06 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008471 – 1017 (17 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly missed the forecast by a healthy margin with a small downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a large long reaction of 13 ticks that started just above the R2 Pivot and rose to cross the R3 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008483 with 3 ticks of slippage then allowed an exit at about 0.008488 for 5 ticks where it hovered for 14 sec just above the R3 Mid Pivot. After the peak it reversed for 19 ticks in 17 min to the 100/200 SMAs.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/26/2014 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -0.9%
Previous revision: +0.1% to -0.1%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.008489 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008502 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008490 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008500 – 0830:22 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008494 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008505 – 0841 (11 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008493 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008480 (on the LOD) / 0.008470 (on the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008499 (match the high @0740) / 0.008509 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report caused an initial long spike followed by a quick reversal. The Core reading fell short of the forecast by 1.4% while the broader reading exceeded the forecast by 0.8% with small upward previous revisions. Unemployment claims also released with a 26K disappointment. It started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the high from 0740 for 13 ticks with no other barrier near then fell 12 ticks 5 sec later. This would have filled your inner short entry immediately with 3 ticks to spare, then fallen to hover near the origin allowing 9 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 10 ticks in the next 16 sec then reversed 6 ticks on the :33 bar to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks to reach the HOD in 8 min before reversing 12 ticks to the 200 SMA in 13 min.

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 11.19.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/19/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.78M
Actual: 2.61M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual: 1.03M
Distillates
Forecast: -1.88M
Actual: -2.06M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 74.70
1st Peak @ 74.49 – 1030:40 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 74.69 – 1032 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 74.03 – 1042 (12 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 74.91 – 1059 (29 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a modest gain when a smaller modest gain was expected, and distillates saw a near matching modest draw. This caused a decisive short move of 21 ticks with a 16 tick immediate spike followed by a retreat then another drop to fall another 5 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 74.58 with 2 ticks of slippage. It would have backed off and spent about 25 sec at about 3 ticks in the red before falling later in the bar to hover at about 4-5 ticks of profit. This would have been the best place to exit, but a it would also be safe to exit with a 3 tick loss earlier with the risk of the report. After the peak, it reversed 20 ticks on the next bar to the 50 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 46 more ticks in the next 10 min as it crossed the S1 Pivot. After that it reversed 88 ticks in 17 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and nearly reaching the R1 Mid Pivot.

CL 01-15 (1 Min) 11.26.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 292014

11/26/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.47M
Actual: 1.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 1.82M
Actual: 1.83M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.55M
Actual: -1.65M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 73.76
1st Peak @ 73.39 – 1031:43 (2 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 73.68 – 1035 (5 min)
29 ticks

Continued Reversal to 74.24 – 1128 (58 min)
85 ticks

Notes: Modest gain in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a matching modest gain, and distillates saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a decisive short move of 37 ticks with a 23 tick immediate spike followed by a retreat then another drop to fall another 14 ticks into the :32 bar. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 73.63 with 3 ticks of slippage. It would have backed off then fallen to hover just below the 50/100 SMAs. Look to exit there safely with 3-5 ticks. It was able to fall later and sustain a larger drop into the :32 bar, but that was after a reversal and not expected. After the peak it reversed 29 ticks in 3 min, crossing the 50/100 SMAs, then continued to reversed for another 56 ticks in the next 53 min as it crossed the S1 Mid Pivot.

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