US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZS 05-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Apr 182015

4/9/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 954.25 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 950.25 – 1200:33 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 957.25 – 1201:57 (2 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 952.50 – 1203 (3 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 958.00 – 1207 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been tame and safe to trade, but the alternate worked too. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered around the S4 Mid Pivot to provide an anchor point at 954.25 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 952.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have seen it fall and immediately hover for 6-8 ticks to be captures just above the S4 Pivot. Since this is a strong barrier, look to exit when it shows evidence of stalling. The move was also in line with the original move, so we expect a lower yield. After that it reversed 28 ticks in 1 min to the 50 SMA / S3 Pivot before pulling back 19 ticks in 1 min. Then it reversed 22 ticks in 4 min to the S3 Pivot / 100 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 192015

4/9/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 283K
Actual: 281K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008347 (shift to 0.008342 – on the PP Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008339 – 0.008342 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008334 – 0832 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 0836 (6 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008334 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008324 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.008350 (just above the HOD) / 0.008361 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in negligibly better than the forecast with only 2k offset. We saw the anchor point shift 5 ticks lower on the movement after the activation up to the release. Then we saw only 3 ticks movement on the :31 bar to make it an easy decision to cancel the order. Then it continued lower for another 5 ticks in the next bar to cross the 200 SMA before reversing 9 ticks in 4 min to the 100 SMA / PP Pivot. After that it continued to drift lower over the next few hours due to other reasons.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 284K
Actual: 294K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008398
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008409 – 0830:26 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008395 – 0834:26 (5 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008406 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008397 – 0844 (14 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008389 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008378 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008407 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008418 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 10k offset while the concurrent BLDG Permits / Housing Starts also moderately disappointed. This caused a quick long spike of 10 ticks in 1 sec that crossed the 100 SMA then eked out 1 more tick in 25 sec. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008407 with 1 tick to spare, then hovered near the top for about 90 sec before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min after crossing the 20 SMA. This would have allowed up to about 10 ticks to be captured with patience. Then it pulled back 11 ticks in 6 min before reversing 9 ticks in 3 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.16.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/16/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 6.5
Actual: 7.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008404
1st Peak @ 0.008396 – 1000:37 (1 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008391 – 1006 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008398 – 1010 (10 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008378 – 1055 (55 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008399 – 1114 (74 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report narrowly exceeded the forecast with a delta of only 1.0 pts, causing a short spike of 8 ticks in 37 sec that started on the 200 SMA and fell to cross the PP Pivot / OOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 0.8400 with no slippage, then seen it trickle lower and hover near the bottom to allow 3-4 ticks to be captured. After that it continued to hover for 2 min and fell for another 5 ticks. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before falling for a final peak of 13 more ticks in 45 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 19 min to the 200 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

CPI Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/17/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.2%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008421
1st Peak @ 0.008434 – 0830:07 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008409 – 0831:22 (2 min)
25 ticks

Pullback to 0.008423 – 0834 (4 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 0.008390 – 0857 (27 min)
33 ticks

Notes: The core reading matched the forecast and the broader reading also matched the forecast. This caused a 13 tick long spike that started on the R1 Mid Pivot and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and touch the R1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 0.008426 with 1 tick of slippage. You would have seen it climb a few more ticks then hover just below the R1 Pivot. With the matching results and hovering, look to exit or reverse the order there with about 5 ticks. After that it reversed 25 ticks in a little over a minute to the OOD. Then it pulled back 14 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 33 ticks in 23 min to the S1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.17.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Apr 202015

4/17/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 93.8
Actual: 95.9
Previous Revision: +1.8 to 93.0
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008405 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008399 – 1001:11 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008414 – 1004:08 (5 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008399 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008391 (in between the S1 Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the OOD) / 0.008421 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points along with a bullish revision of 1.8 pts. This caused a slow developing short spike of 6 ticks that crossed the 100 /50 SMAs and reached the S1 Mid Pivot early in the :02 bar. Since it took so long to achieve the move, cancel the order after 20 sec to play it safe. After the spike, it reversed 15 ticks in 3 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.8.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/8/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.14/2.7
Actual: 1.93/2.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 163’26 (1301)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 163’31 – 1303:14 (3 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 163’26 – 1308:18 (8 min)
)))-5 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 164’22 – 1357 (56 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 163’21 (on the LOD) / 163’18 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 163’30 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 164’02 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio tapered slightly. This caused the ZB to pop long for 5 ticks to cross the S1 Pivot and 100 SMA. If you had placed your short entry at 163’30 it would have filled early in the :03 bar, otherwise if placed higher it would have missed. Then if filled it would have taken a patient approach as it yielded 3 ticks in about 3.5 min where it hovered just below the S1 Pivot. Then it hit the 100 SMA and rebounded into a long developing final peak of 23 more ticks in 48 min. Then the FOMC minutes released 3 min later.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.8.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/8/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 164’22
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’26 – 1400:05 (1 min)
)))4 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’19 – 1400:44 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 164’30 – 1402 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 164’10 – 1409 (9 min)
20 ticks

Pullback to 164’29 – 1419 (19 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’17 (just below the 20 SMA) / 164’14 (just above the 50 SMA)
Short entries – 164’27 (just below the OOD) / 164’30 (just above the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was divided on when to hike rates (June or later). This caused a long spike of only 4 ticks that started a few sec premature and peaked 5 sec into the :01 bar. It lingered for only 3 sec to not allow a manual shifted entry before reversing, so cancel the order. It fell 7 ticks in about 40 sec before climbing for a 2nd peak of 4 more in 1 min as it eclipsed the OOD. Then it reversed 20 ticks in 7 min, crossing the 50 SMA and reaching the PP Pivot. After that it pulled back 19 ticks in 10 min to the OOD.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.9.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/9/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.68/2.2
Actual: 2.60/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’28 (1302)
1st Peak @ 163’04 – 1302:50 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 162’29 – 1306 (5 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 163’06 – 1310 (9 min)
9 ticks

ContinuedReversal to 163’14 – 1340 (39 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell moderately from last month as the bid to cover ratio remained the same. This caused the bonds to fall for a monumental spike of 19 ticks at 1:38 to cross the S2 Mid Pivot, then continue to trickle lower for another 5 ticks in the next minute. With JOBB you would have filled short at 163’22 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover between around 163’06 to allow up to 16 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it did not reverse more than a few ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks in 4 min as it crossed the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 9 ticks in 4 min and another 8 ticks in the next 30 min.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.14.2015

Retail Sales Comments Off

Apr 252015

4/14/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 164’01
1st Peak @ 164’21 – 0830:04 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 164’15 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 165’14 – 0920 (50 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 165’00 – 0951 (81 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report was weak, falling short of the forecasts by 0.3% and 0.2% margins with modest upward previous revisions. PPI also released at the same time and was mildly disappointing. This caused a long spike for 20 ticks immediately that started on the 100 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and reach the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it hovered in the area near the top for 9 sec before backing off. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 164’05 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to climb. This would have allowed an exit with the hovering around 164’18 with 13 ticks. After a 6 tick reversal on the next bar, it continued to step higher about 4 times to reach the R4 Mid Pivot on the final peak for 25 more ticks in 48 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 31 min to the R3 Pivot.

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