US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 3.27.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Apr 282015

3/27/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 163’04
1st Peak@ 163’11 – 0831:17 (2 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’06 – 0836 (6 min)
5 ticks

2nd peak @ 163’17 – 0841 (11 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 163’04 – 0856 (26 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.2%, causing a long spike of 7 ticks over about 80 sec. As we mentioned in the alert, “if the result differs by 0.2% or less, look for a spike of 4-7 ticks”. Sure enough that was prophetic in this case. This did differ from the previous reports to drift into the :32 bar on the first peak, but other than that it was true to form. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 163’06 with no slippage. Then be patient and set a profit target at 4 ticks since the HOD is the only resistance barrier. It would have filled nicely early in the :32 bar. After that it reversed 5 ticks in 4 min to the 13 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min as it crossed the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 13 ticks in 15 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.28.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Apr 292015

4/28/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 102.6
Actual: 95.2
Previous revision: +0.1 to 101.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008407
1st Peak @ 0.008417 – 1001:07 (2 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008410 – 1001:48 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008423 – 1007 (7 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008413 – 1048 (48 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by a healthy margin of 7.4 pts with a negligible upward revision to the previous reading. This caused a long move of 10 ticks that climbed 9 ticks immediately then hovered to snag 1 more tick later. It started just below the 200 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008411 with 1 tick of slippage then allowed an exit with 3-4 ticks as it hovered just above the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks after peaking in the :02 bar. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks in 5 min to extend the HOD before reversing 10 ticks in 41 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

Advance GDP Comments Off

Apr 292015

4/29/2015 Quarterly Advance GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.0%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: -0.4% to 2.2%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 159’29 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 160’10 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))13 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’28 – 0831:09 (2 min)
)))-14 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 160’18 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 158’22 – 0910 (40 min)
60 ticks

Pullback to 159’27 – 0933 (63 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 159’19 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 160’09 (just below the 200 SMA)

Notes: Report came in weak showing the economic growth in Q1 grinded to a halt as it fell short of the forecast by 0.8%. This caused a quick long spike of 13 ticks in 2 sec that touched the 200 SMA then reversed quickly. It would have filled the short entry with 1 tick to spare in an ideal location, then fallen to hover for 14 sec just below the 100 SMA. Look to exit there with about 6-7 ticks. After a small pullback, it continued to reverse another 6 ticks in about 30 sec to the 50 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks in 7 min as it nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing 60 ticks in 31 min after crossing the S2 Pivot. After that it pulled back 37 ticks in 23 min to the S1 Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Apr 302015

4/29/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.79/2.3
Actual: 1.82/2.4
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 159’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 159’10 – 1303:29 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 159’06 – 1308 (6 min)
4 ticks

2nd Peak @ 159’20 – 1314 (12 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 159’12 – 1321 (19 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.82 climbed slightly from last month while the bid to cover ratio also rose slightly to 2.4. This caused the bonds to rally 9 ticks in about 2 min to cross the 100 and 200 SMAs. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 159’03 with no slippage. Look to exit at 159’06 with 3 ticks where it hovered initially on the 100 SMA, or wait until it reached the 200 SMA and snag 6 total ticks a minute later. After that it reversed 4 ticks in 4 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 7 min to the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 4.29.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Apr 302015

4/29/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 159’19
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 159’06 – 1400:30 (1 min)
)))-13 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’15 – 1400:52 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 159’07 – 1401:04 (2 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 159’30 – 1403:25 (4 min)
)))23 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 160’05 – 1407 (7 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 159’18 – 1410 (10 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 159’12 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 159’04 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 159’27 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 160’03 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The FED left open the possibility of a rate hike in June, but stated it was unlikely to be until the end of the summer. This caused the expected instability with a 13 tick short spike in 30 sec followed by the reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry right at 19 sec just before the time recommended to cancel. Then you would have seen it continue to fall and cross the 100 /200 SMAs but come up about 3 ticks short of the outer tier. Then it reversed 9 ticks and hovered about 1-2 ticks in the green briefly to allow a quick exit. You could have gotten out there or waited until after it fell again. Upon seeing it pull back to the same low and start to reverse, it would have been prudent to move the outer long entry up to get a fill around the 200 SMA. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 3 min and another 7 ticks in 3 more min to allow plenty of profit to be captured. Also notice that the reversal distance from the origin was roughly the same as the original spike heading short. After the reversal, it pulled back 19 ticks in only 3 min to cross the 50 SMA. After that it chopped sideways and the moves became less discernible.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.23.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/23/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 295K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008335
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008343 – 0830:07 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008334 – 0835:18 (6 min)
)))-9 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008327 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008316 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008345 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008354 (just above the PP Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast with 7k offset. This caused a quick long spike of 8 ticks in 7 sec that crossed the OOD and nearly reached the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have fallen short of the inner short entry at 0.008345 by 2 ticks and possibly offered a chance for a manual shifted entry as it retreated and then popped up later to the same area. If you did shift down, it would have filled short around 0.008341, then allowed about 6 ticks to be captured with patience after falling for over 4 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 012015

4/30/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 290K
Actual: 262K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008416 (shift down 4 ticks to 0.008412 near the 200/100 SMAs)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008390 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008407 – 0830:33 (1 min)
)))17 ticks
————
Final Peak @0.008363 – 0943 (73 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 0.008377 – 1004 (94 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just above the OOD) / 0.008393 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008422 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008432 (just below the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast with 28k offset while other concurrently released news came in mostly moderately disappointing. This caused a quick short spike of 22 ticks in 3 sec that crossed the S1 Mid Pivot and extended the LOD, then reversed. This would have filled your inner and outer long entries to make your average long position 0.008398. Then it reversed to hover at 0.008407 for 18 sec later in the :31 bar to allow a total of 18 ticks to be captured. After that it fell into a downward fan as it reached the final peak of 27 more ticks in 72 min as it crossed the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 21 min to nearly reach the 100 SMA / S1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 4.24.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 012015

4/24/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: -0.2%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.6%
Regular Forecast: 0.7%
Regular Actual: 4.0%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -1.1%
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008377 (shift up 3 ticks to 0.008380)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 0830:04 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008387 – 0830:28 (1 min)
)))18 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008378 – 0833 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008406 – 0940 (70 min)
28 ticks

Pullback to 0.008390 – 1007 (97 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008370 (just below the 100/200 SMAs) / 0.008360 (just below the PP Pivot / LOD)
Short entries – 0.008391 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008400 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Conflicting report caused an typical whipsaw that fell 11 ticks in 4 sec to cross the 100/200 SMAs then reverse. Your initial anchor point would have setup at 0.008377, but should be shifted up about 3 ticks due to the drift of the market. This would have filled you inner long entry with 1 tick to spare then reversed after a few sec for a total of 18 ticks in 25 sec where it hovered for about 30 sec to allow an easy exit with about 16 ticks. After that it pulled back 9 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before reversing 28 ticks in 67 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in 27 min to the R1 Pivot.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 032015

5/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 51.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE (TRIPWIRE TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.008344
1st Peak @ 0.008353 – 1000:00 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008343 – 1000:00 (1 min)
-10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008353 – 1000:12 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008337 – 1002 (2 min)
16 ticks

Continued Reversal to 0.008319 – 1039 (39 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 0.6 pts. We saw a 6 tick short move at 0959:54 (6 sec premature) that should have been a tripwire to disable the strategy. After the release, this caused a 9 tick long spike that started in between the 100 / 200 SMAs and rose to cross the 200 SMA then immediately retreated 10 ticks and pulled back. If left to continue to operate, with JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008352 with 5 ticks of slippage (abnormally high), then stopped at 0.008344 with an 8 tick loss with no slippage. After the pullback, it reversed 16 ticks in 1 min to the LOD then continued to fall another 18 ticks in 37 min.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 4.30.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

May 042015

4/30/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 79B
Actual: 81B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.559
1st Peak @ 2.692 – 1030:47 (1 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 2.658 – 1033 (3 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.713 – 1035 (5 min)
154 ticks

Reversal to 2.677 – 1038 (8 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 2.732 – 1107 (37 min)
173 ticks

Reversal to 2.707 – 1114 (44 min)
25 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly larger gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long move that rose to cross all 3 major SMAs near the origin, the R2 Pivot and extend the HOD. It spiked 72 ticks immediately to the R1 Pivot, then climbed another 61 ticks in the next 46 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 2.610 with 41 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it continue to step higher slowly until peaking late in the bar. This would have allowed up to 80 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed for 34 ticks in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks in 2 min. After that it reversed 36 ticks in 3 min before climbing for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 29 min. Then it reversed 25 ticks in 7 min.

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