US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.14.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

May 172015

5/14/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.60/2.2
Actual: 3.04/2.2
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 153’15 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 152’26 – 1301:49 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 153’06 – 1304 (3 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 152’16 – 1318 (17 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 153’10 – 1330 (29 min)
26 ticks

Double Bottom @ 152’16 – 1412 (71 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield rose strongly from last month as the bid to cover ratio remained the same. This caused the bonds to fall for another monumental spike of 21 ticks at 1:40 to cross all 3 major SMAs then bottom near a point of support from previous lows in the past few hours. With JOBB you would have filled short at 153’09 with about 3 ticks of slippage, then seen it continue to fall and hover between around 152’30 to allow about 11 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 12 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA before stepping lower for a final peak of 10 more ticks in 14 min to nearly reach the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 26 ticks to the PP Pivot in 12 min before falling for a double bottom in 42 min.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 5.14.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

May 172015

5/14/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 112B
Actual: 111B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.893
1st Peak @ 3.020 – 1031:02 (2 min)
127 ticks

Reversal to 2.976 – 1049 (19 min)
44 ticks

Pullback to 3.011 – 1122 (52 min)
35 ticks

Notes: We saw a near matching gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long move that rose 73 ticks immediately to cross the HOD and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it achieved another 54 ticks in the next min to eclipse the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 2.943 with about 40 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it slowly climb until it encountered resistance on the R2 Mid Pivot and chopped. Look to exit there with about 60+ ticks. After that it reversed 44 ticks in 17 min to the R1 Pivot / 20 SMA before pulling back 35 ticks in 33 min to the R2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 212015

5/20/2015 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 152’28 (shift up 2 ticks to 152’30)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 153’08 – 1400:10 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 152’25 – 1401:30 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 152’10 – 1405 (5 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 152’27 – 1408 (8 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 152’13 – 1411 (11 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 153’10 – 1430 (30 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 152’23 – 1435 (35 min)
13 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 152’26 (in between the 100 / 200 SMAs) / 152’21 (just below the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 153’03 (just above the PP Pivot) / 153’07 (just below the HOD)

Notes: The minutes revealed that the FED was taking the possibility of a June rate hike off the table. This causes a perfect setup for the Trap Trade. You would have seen a 10 tick spike long in 10 sec that reached the HOD and collapsed. This would have filled both short tiers for an average position of about 153’05. Then it fell 15 ticks in about 80 sec to the 100 SMA to allow up to about 22 total ticks to be captured. Then it stalled for a min before falling for 15 more ticks. After that it pulled back 17 ticks in 3 min to the 50 SMA before reversing 14 ticks in 3 min. Then it climbed for a double top in 19 min before reversing 13 ticks in 5 min to the 200 SMA. After that it settled down and trickled lower into the close.

CL 06-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 212015

5/13/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.39M
Actual: -2.19M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.43M
Actual: -1.14M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.83M
Actual: -2.50M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 61.47
1st Peak @ 61.85 – 1030:41 (1 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 60.97 – 1035 (5 min)
88 ticks

Pullback to 61.35 – 1041 (11 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 60.59 – 1052 (22 min)
76 ticks

Pullback to 60.98 – 1110 (40 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Second week that the crude figures saw a draw. Modest draw in inventories when a negligible gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a long spike of 38 ticks that moved 2 sec premature and peaked 41 sec into the bar at the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.58 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have quickly hit the R2 Mid Pivot, backed off, then reclaimed the peak with a few more ticks. A 23 tick profit target or less would have filled early, otherwise, look to exit near the R2 Mid Pivot where it hovered with about 20 ticks. After that it reversed 88 ticks in 4 min to reach the R1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 38 ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 76 ticks in 11 min before pulling back 39 ticks in 18 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.14.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242015

5/14/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims / Trade Balance (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 272K
Actual: 264K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008395
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008406 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008391 – 0831:36 (2 min)
)))-15 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008400 – 0835 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008393 – 0839 (9 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008385 (just below the PP Pivot) / 0.008376 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008403 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008415 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast with 8k offset. The concurrently released PPI report was disappointing. This caused a quick and briefly sustained long spike of 11 ticks immediately. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.8403 then slowly fallen 15 ticks in 90 sec to allow up to 11 ticks to be captured where it hovered just above the 50 SMA. Then it pulled back 9 ticks in 3 min before reversing 7 ticks in 9 min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.21.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242015

5/21/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 274K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008257
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008264 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008255 – 0833:46 (4 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008249 – 0846 (16 min)
15 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008248 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008238 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008265 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008277 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with 3k worse than the forecast. This caused a slow long spike of 7 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, then reversed 9 ticks in 3 min. As it had only moved 1 tick in 20 sec, cancel the order. It continued to reverse for another 6 ticks in 12 min then stalled for several min.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.15.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

May 242015

5/15/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 95.8
Actual: 88.6
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008362 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008369 – 1000:03 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008365 – 1000:34 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008392 – 1034 (34 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.008381 – 1045 (45 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008355 (just below the 50 SMA) / 0.008347 (just below the 200 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008368 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.008377 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 7.2 points. This caused a quick long spike for 7 ticks followed by a reversal of 4 ticks. This would have filled the inner short entry at 0.008368, then allowed 2-3 ticks to be captured where it hovered midway through the :31 bar. Due to the strong offset from the forecast to the result, look to exit with the first hovering after a reversal. After that it slowly climbed for a final peak of 23 more ticks in 33 min as it nearly reached the PP Pivot and HOD. Then it reversed 11 ticks in 11 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.19.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

May 242015

5/19/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.06M
Actual: 1.14M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.02M
Actual: 1.14M
Previous revision: +0.01 to 0.94M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008322
1st Peak @ 0.008311 – 0830:01 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008318 – 0830:38 (1 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008303 – 0845 (15 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 0.008309 – 0918 (48 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly bullish with the BLDG Permits exceeding the forecast by 0.08M and the Housing starts exceeding the forecast by 0.12M. This caused a short move of 11 ticks that started on the S2 Mid Pivot and fell to cross the S2 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008317 with 2 ticks of slippage. It peaked, then backed off, then reclaimed the peak toward the end of the bar. Due to the strong biased results, be patient for a later drop and even 2nd peak. It hovered around 0.008312 as the :31 bar was expiring to allow 5 ticks to be captured. After that it continued to fall for a 2nd peak of 8 more ticks after crossing the S3 Mid Pivot in 14 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 33 min as it crossed the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.22.2015

CPI Comments Off

May 252015

5/22/2015 Core CPI (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.1%
Previous Revision: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.008274
1st Peak @ 0.008248 – 0830:33 (1 min)
26 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008229 – 0840 (10 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 0.008237 – 0844 (14 min)
8 ticks

Notes: The core reading exceeded the forecast and the broader reading matched the forecast. This caused a 26 tick large short spike that started on the 200 SMA and fell to immediately cross the OOD, then trickle lower another 13 ticks in 30 sec. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short order would have filled at 0.008267 with 3 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it fall and hover initially at 0.008249 to allow 18 ticks to be captured. After a minimal reversal, and with no support barrier near, it continued to fall for a final peak of 19 more ticks in 9 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 4 min and traded sideways.

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 5.20.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 312015

5/20/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.03M
Actual: -2.67M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.73M
Actual: -2.77M
Distillates
Forecast: 0.04M
Actual: -0.55M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 58.77
1st Peak @ 58.90 – 1030:00 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 58.41 – 1030:08 (1 min)
-49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 58.95 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 58.16 – 1038 (8 min)
79 ticks

Pullback to 59.04 – 1121 (51 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a head fake long spike of 13 ticks that moved immediately to cross the R1 Pivot and reach the HOD before reversing 49 ticks in 8 sec to the PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 58.88 with 1 tick of slippage. Then it would have quickly hit the stop loss 2 sec later for a loss of 15 ticks. It fell to reach the PP Pivot, then rebounded long for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in the next bar. Then it reversed 79 ticks in 6 min to cross the OOD before pulling back 88 ticks in 43 min to extend the HOD. Then it backed off and chopped sideways.

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