US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 5.28.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 312015

5/28/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EDT)
Forecast: -0.86M
Actual: -2.80M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.43M
Actual: -3.31M
Distillates
Forecast: -0.32M
Actual: 1.12M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 56.66
1st Peak @ 57.30 – 1100:00 (1 min)
64 ticks

Reversal to 56.81 – 1104 (4 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 57.44 – 1133 (33 min)
78 ticks

Reversal to 56.85 – 1202 (62 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a negligible draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible draw was expected, and distillates saw a modest gain when a negligible draw was expected. This caused a long spike of 64 ticks that started on the 20 SMA and rose to cross the 200 SMA and S1 Pivot in 1 sec. Then it backed off and oscillated between 56.90 and the S1 Pivot for 2 min and eventually reversed to the 50/100 SMAs and S2 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 56.81 with 5 ticks of slippage. Then it would have peaked and backed off to hover in the vicinity of the 200 SMA for 12 sec. Look to exit there with about 25-30 ticks. After the reversal, it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks in 29 min. Then it reversed 59 ticks in 29 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot.

NG 06-15 (1 Min) 5.21.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 012015

5/21/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 100B
Actual: 92B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.962
1st Peak @ 3.038 – 1030:00 (1 min)
76 ticks

Reversal to 2.977 – 1033 (3 min)
61 ticks

Pullback to 2.995 – 1034 (4 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 2.965 – 1036 (6 min)
30 ticks

Pullback to 3.019 – 1132 (32 min)
54 ticks

Notes: We saw a lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large long move that rose 76 ticks immediately to nearly reach the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it surrendered about 25 ticks and hovered for 14 sec. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled around 3.005 with about 33 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it peak and back off to hover to allow 8-15 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed a total of 61 ticks to the R1 Mid Pivot in 2 min before pulling back 18 ticks in 1 min. After that it reversed 30 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before pulling back 54 ticks in 32 min after crossing the R1 Pivot.

NG 07-15 (1 Min) 5.28.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 012015

5/28/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 95B
Actual: 112B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.790
1st Peak @ 2.708 – 1030:00 (1 min)
82 ticks

Reversal to 2.745 – 1033 (3 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 2.710 – 1047 (17 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 2.733 – 1113 (43 min)
30 ticks

Notes: We saw a greater gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a large short move that fell 82 ticks immediately to cross the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it hovered around the pivot for about 10 sec before backing off long. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.759 with about 31 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop around the S3 Mid Pivot to allow about 35 ticks to be captured. After that it reversed 37 ticks in 2 min before pulling back 35 ticks in 14 min. Then it reversed 23 ticks in 26 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.26.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 052015

5/26/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: +0.5% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: -0.4%
Regular Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.7% to 4.7%
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008148 (shift up 4 ticks to 0.008152)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008130 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))-22 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008140 – 0833:34 (4 min)
)))10 ticks
————
Final Peak @ 0.008112 – 0901 (31 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 0.008126 – 0910 (40 min)
14 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008140 (on the LOD) / 0.008131 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008163 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008174 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Unusual report that matched the forecast on both sides of the report. This caused a decisive short move of 22 ticks in 12 sec that would have filled both inner and outer long entries for an average long position of about 0.008136. Then you would have seen it only reverse for 4 ticks and hover for the first 2 min. There are 2 ways to play this situation. 1) you can move the stop to 1 tick below the 1st peak and wait for it to reverse a few more ticks until the falling 13/20 become resistance. This would have allowed up to 10 total ticks to be captured, or 2) you can exit at 0.8134 for a 3 tick loss on the hovering. The risk of a stop at 0.008129 is 13 ticks. We will grade this as a dull fill with the 3 tick loss. After the reversal, it stepped lower for a final peak of 18 more ticks in 27 min. Then it reversed 14 ticks in 9 min to nearly reach the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.26.2015

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jun 052015

5/26/2015 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 95.2
Actual: 95.4
Previous revision: -0.9 to 94.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008122
1st Peak @ 0.008114 – 1000:18 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008118 – 1002 (2 min)
4 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.008110 – 1005 (5 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008122 – 1014 (14 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report nearly matched the forecast with a 0.2 point delta offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous reading. This caused a short move of 8 ticks that started just below the 50 SMA and fell to nearly reach the LOD in 18 sec. With JOBB, your short order would have filled at 0.008119 with no slippage, then fallen and hovered at 0.008115 to allow 4 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed 4 ticks in 1 min before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks as it crossed the LOD. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 5.28.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 052015

5/28/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 282K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008052
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008059 – 0830:03 (1 min)
)))7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008056 – 0830:40 (1 min)
)))-3 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008061 – 0831:08 (2 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008045 – 0839 (9 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008042 (just above the LOD) / 0.008033 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008060 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008070 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 11k worse than the forecast. This caused a long spike of 7 ticks that crossed the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA then reversed 3 ticks before pulling back 5 ticks. Since we advise canceling the order after 20 sec, this would have just fallen short of the inner short entry so cancel it. We see that that the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot held as the reversal took 7 min to achieve 16 ticks.

ZB 06-15 (1 Min) 5.28.2015

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jun 062015

5/28/2015 7-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 1.82/2.4
Actual: 1.89/2.5
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 156’09 (1301)
Whipsaw between 156’12 -156’04 1301:33 – 1301:35
+3 ticks / -5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 156’20 – 1308 (6 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 156’14 – 1315 (13 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 156’27 – 1318 (16 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 156’07 – 1404 (62 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Report is not found on Forex Factory, but the spike always breaks after 1:30 min late as with other bond auctions. The highest yield of 1.89 climbed from last month while the bid to cover ratio also rose slightly to 2.5. This caused the bonds to whipsaw up 3 and down 5 ticks in the first 2 sec then settle down in the long direction. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 159’11 then the you would have been stopped at 159’08 with no slippage. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 11 ticks in 6 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot and reach the OOD before reversing 6 ticks in 7 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a final peak of 7 more ticks in 3 min before reversing 20 ticks in 46 min as it crossed the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 5.29.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Jun 062015

5/29/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: -0.8%
Actual: -0.7%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 155’03 (shift 1 tick lower to 155’02)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 154’25 – 0830:02 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 155’07 – 0830:36 (1 min)
)))14 ticks
————
Pullback to 155’01 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 155’16 – 0905 (35 min)
15 ticks

Pullback to 155’08 – 0914 (44 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 154’29 (just below the PP Pivot)/ 154’26 (just above the OOD)
Short entries – 155’06 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 155’10 (on the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, causing a short spike of 9 ticks in 2 sec that started just below the 100/200 SMAs and fell to cross the PP Pivot and nearly reach the OOD reversing. This would have filled the inner and outer long entries making an average long position of 154’27.5. As it reversed, it climbed 14 ticks in 34 sec then hovered at 155’06 (the inner short tier) to allow 21 total ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 6 ticks in 1 min before reversing 15 ticks in 33 min. Then it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.1.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/1/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 51.9
Actual: 52.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008065
1st Peak @ 0.008042 – 1001:28 (2 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.008047 – 1001:50 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008037 – 1011 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 0.008045 – 1019 (19 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 0.9 pts. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks that started in the middle of the cluster of the SMAs and PP Pivot then fell 18 ticks in 6 sec to cross the S1 Pivot, then another 5 ticks in about 82 sec to cross the LOD and S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008059 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it fell and hovered at 0.008050 to allow an easy exit with 9 or so ticks. If you were more patient up to 12 more ticks could have been secured a few min later. It reversed for only 5 ticks, then stepped lower for a final peak of 5 more ticks in 9 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 8 min to the 20 SMA.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EDT)
Forecast: 198K
Actual: 201K
Previous revision: -4K to 165K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008040 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008031 – 0815:12 (1 min)
)))-9 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008036 – 0816:00 (1 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008029 – 0817 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008034 – 0820 (5 min)
5 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008032 (just below the LOD) / 0.008022 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008049 (no SMA /Pivot near) / 0.008058 (just above the OOD)

Notes: Report came in nearly matching with a negligible revision to the previous report to cause a 9 tick short spike that started just above the 200 SMA and fell to cross the LOD. This would have filled your inner long entry with 1 tick to spare then only reversed 5 ticks to allow about 2-3 ticks to be captured. If you did not exit at the first opportunity and waited a few min, you have seen the same result after 5 min.

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