US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

Jun 122015

6/3/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 57.1
Actual: 55.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008044
1st Peak @ 0.008060 – 1000:43 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008054 – 1003 (3 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008065 – 1010 (10 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 0.008048 – 1040 (40 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.4 pts. This caused a 16 tick long spike that started on the 13/20 SMAs and rose to cross the PP Pivot and OOD. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008048 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have seen it step up to cross the OOD allowing an exit with 10 ticks where it hovered. After that it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min before climbing for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks in 7 min. Then it reversed 17 ticks in 30 min after crossing the PP Pivot and 50 SMA.

ES 06-15 (1 Min) 6.5.2015

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 142015

6/5/2015 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 222K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 280K
Previous Revision: -2K to 221K
Rate Forecast: 5.4%
Rate Actual: 5.5%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 2094.50 (on the 100 SMA)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2088.75 – 0830:17 (1 min)
)))-23 ticks

)))Reversal to 2095.50 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))27 ticks

)))Pullback to 2086.25 – 0831:20 (2 min)
)))-37 ticks
————
Reversal to 2096.75 – 0836 (6 min)
42 ticks

Pullback to 2089.25 – 0840 (10 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 2095.00 – 0845 (15 min)
23 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2087.75 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 2084.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 2101.75 (just below the PP Pivot) / 2104.50 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Strong report with 58K more jobs added than the forecast, a negligible revision to the previous report along with a increase in the U-3 rate that was attributed to more people looking for work. This caused a short spike of 23 ticks in 17 sec that would have barely missed the inner long tier by 4-5 ticks. As it hovered in a range of 5 ticks for 5 sec, if you were quick you could have moved the tier up about 6 ticks and seen the reversal of 27 ticks give you a nice profit of up to 20 or so ticks with an exit above the 100 SMA. Then it continued to swing up and down about every 4-5 min to allow plenty of opportunities to “sell the rips and buy the dips”.

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 6.3.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 152015

6/3/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.70M
Actual: -1.95M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.53M
Actual: -0.33M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.09M
Actual: 3.77M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 60.89
1st Peak @ 61.43 – 1030:00 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 60.91 – 1030:41 (1 min)
52 ticks

Pullback to 61.18 – 1031:18 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 60.35 – 1046 (16 min)
83 ticks

Pullback to 60.62 – 1050 (20 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 60.03 – 1141 (71 min)
59 ticks

Notes: Moderate draw in inventories when a lesser moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a healthy gain when a negligible gain was expected. This caused a long spike of 54 ticks that started just above the 20 SMA / S1 Mid Pivot and rose to reach the R1 Mid Pivot and extend the HOD, then promptly reversed. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.07 with 8 ticks of slippage. Then it would have peaked and backed off to chop between 61.17 and 61.30. Look to exit there with about 15 ticks. It reversed to the origin in 41 sec before pulling back 27 ticks to cross the PP Pivot in 37 sec. Then it reversed 83 ticks in 14 min after crossing the 200 SMA before pulling back 27 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 59 ticks in 51 min after crossing the S2 Mid Pivot.

CL 07-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 152015

6/10/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.72M
Actual: -6.81M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.28M
Actual: -2.94M
Distillates
Forecast: 1.34M
Actual: 0.87M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 61.25
1st Peak @ 61.62 – 1030:00 (1 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 61.27 – 1030:07 (1 min)
35 ticks

Continued swings between 61.30 – 61.62 – to 1038 (8 min)

Reversal to 60.81 – 1042 (12 min)
81 ticks

Pullback to 61.29 – 1056 (26 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 60.48 – 1153 (83 min)
81 ticks

Notes: Large draw in inventories when a modest draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw when a negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a negligible gain when a modest gain was expected. This caused a long spike of 37 ticks that started on the 13/20 SMAs and rose to cross all 3 major SMAs and the R3 Mid Pivot then collapsed a few sec later. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your long order would have filled at 61.41 with 6 ticks of slippage. Then it would have peaked and backed off to hover just above the fill point for 5 sec before reversing to the origin. If you were quick you could have exited with a handful of ticks, otherwise you would have been stopped with a 15 tick loss after 7 sec. It continued to chop between 61.62 an d61.30 for 7 more min before reversing 81 tic in 4 min to the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 48 ticks in 14 min to the 50 SMA before reversing 81 ticks to the R1 Pivot in 57 min.

NG 07-15 (1 Min) 6.4.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 162015

6/4/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 119B
Actual: 132B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 2.617
1st Peak @ 2.556 – 1030:00 (1 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 2.603 – 1036 (6 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 2.583 – 1039 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.668 – 1051 (21 min)
85 ticks

Pullback to 2.627 – 1055 (25 min)
41 ticks

Notes: We saw a greater gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a healthy short move that fell 61 ticks immediately to cross the S2 Pivot. Then it retraced about 25 ticks and chopped sideways. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your short order would have filled around 2.585 with about 22 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen it chop around your fill point to 12 ticks of profit. Look to exit with a profit target above the S2 Pivot for about 15-20 ticks. After that it reversed 47 ticks in 5 min to the S1 Pivot before pulling back 20 ticks in 3 min to the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 85 ticks in 12 min to the PP Pivot before pulling back 41 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot / 200 SMA.

NG 07-15 (1 Min) 6.11.2015

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 182015

6/11/2015 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 114B
Actual: 111B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 2.887
Whipsaw between 2.919 and 2.884 – 1030:00 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 2.868 – 1032 (2 min)
51 ticks

Pullback to 2.888 – 1033 (3 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 2.850 – 1038 (8 min)
38 ticks

Pullback to 2.884 – 1111 (41 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 2.818 – 1222 (112 min)
66 ticks

Notes: We saw a slightly lesser gain on the reserve compared to the forecast which caused a whipsaw initially that spanned 35 ticks and continued to chop for the first min between the HOD / R1 Mid Pivot and PP Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick bracket, your order may have errored out on the setup as the :59 sec bar was volatile. Otherwise it is hard to say where the fill would have been but it is a certainty you would have been stopped for about 20 -25 ticks. It reversed 51 ticks in the next min to the S1 Mid Pivot before pulling back 20 ticks in 1 min to the PP Pivot. Then it reversed 38 ticks in 8 min to the S1 Pivot as it extended the LOD before pulling back 34 ticks in 33 min to the 200 SMA. Finally it reversed 66 ticks in 71 min to the S2 Mid Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jun 202015

6/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.24/2.7
Actual: 2.46/2.7
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 148’01 (1301) (On the S2 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 148’10 – 1301:35 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Reversal to 148’06 – 1301:59 (1 min)
)))-4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 1304 (3 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’04 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 148’14 – 1322 (21 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 147’29 – 1357 (56 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 147’29 (just below the 200 SMA) / 147’26 (just above the 50/100 SMAs)
Short entries – 148’06 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 148’09 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 – 1:40 late. The highest yield rose considerably from last month’s auction while the bid to cover ratio stayed the same. This caused the ZB to spike long 9 ticks at 1301:35 then reverse 4 ticks in 24 sec. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 148’07.5. It reversed to 148’06 and hovered for about 30 sec to allow 1-3 ticks to be captured. After that it climbed for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 2 min to the S1 Pivot before reversing 10 ticks in 6 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a double top in 12 min before reversing 17 ticks in 35 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.11.2015

Retail Sales, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/11/2015 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: 1.0%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 1.1%
Regular Actual: 1.2%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 148’08
1st Peak @ 148’00 – 0830:01 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 148’09 – 0830:02 (1 min)
9 ticks

Pullback to 147’30 – 0830:16 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 149’03 – 0833 (3 min)
37 ticks

Pullback to 148’22 – 0836 (6 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 149’13 – 0852 (22 min)
23 ticks

Pullback to 148’28 – 0915 (45 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report was released concurrently with Unemployment claims and Import Prices. All the news was bullish except for the claims (matching). The reaction defied logic as it fell, but quickly reversed and ended up long in the follow through. This caused a 8 tick short spike that reversed 9 ticks in the next sec then fell again after a few sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 148’03 with 2 ticks of slippage, then your stop would have been hit for a 5 tick loss 1 sec later. After the initial short move and instability, it reversed long for 37 ticks in 2 min to cross the R2 Pivot. Then it pulled back 13 ticks in 3 min before reversing 23 ticks in 16 min to the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 17 ticks in 23 min to the R2 Pivot.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.11.2015

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/11/2015 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.04/2.2
Actual: 3.14/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 149’14 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 149’28 – 1301:48 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 149’16 – 1307 (6 min)
12 ticks

Final Peak @ 150’08 – 1337 (36 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 150’00 – 1349 (48 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1:30 late. The highest yield rose moderately from last month as the bid to cover also increased. This caused the bonds to spike long for 14 ticks in 18 sec at 1:48 to the R3 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 149’18 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it continue to rise and hover around 149’26 to allow 8 ticks to be captured. After the spike, it reversed 12 ticks in 6 min to the 50 SMA before stepping higher for a final peak of 12 more ticks in 30 min to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 8 ticks to the 50 SMA in 12 min and traded sideways.

6J 06-15 (1 Min) 6.4.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 212015

6/4/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 280K
Actual: 276K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008053
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008046 – 0831:04 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008052 – 0833:09 (4 min)
)))6 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008043 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008033 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008061 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008072 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 4k better than the forecast. This caused a short spike of 7 ticks that crossed the OOD but took over 1 min to do so. With the gradual approach and minimal movement after 20 sec, cancel the order. After the peak it reversed 6 ticks in 2 min.

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