US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZC 12-14 (1 Min) 8.12.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Sep 012014

8/12/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 358.00
1st Peak @ 366.00 – 1200:06 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 354.25 – 1200:57 (1 min)
47 ticks

Pullback to 364.50 – 1220 (20 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 359.00 – 1240 (40 min)
22 ticks

Pullback to 365.50 – 1320 (80 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long move of 32 ticks initially that crossed the 200 SMA, OOD, R1 Pivot and extended the HOD. It was briefly sustained then reversed after 10 sec for 47 ticks to the S3 Mid Pivot as the :01 bar was expiring. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 360.75 with about 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it climb and hover just above the R1 Pivot for 7 sec. Since this report often reverses at the first sign of hovering, we recommend exiting there which would have secured about 20 ticks. After that it reversed for 47 ticks in the next 51 sec to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back for 41 ticks in the next 19 min to the R1 Mid Pivot, offering a great long entry just above the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for 22 ticks to the 200 SMA in 20 min before climbing 26 ticks to the R1 Pivot in the next 40 min. After that it traded sideways and trended higher in the long term.

ZS 07-15 (1 Min) 6.10.2015

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Jun 222015

6/10/2015 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 946.00 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 953.25 – 1200:56 (1 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 946.00 – 1202 (2 min)
29 ticks

Pullback to 951.00 – 1205 (5 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 947.00 – 1206 (6 min)
16 ticks

Pullback to 953.00 – 1216 (16 min)
24 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the timing was ideal as it bottomed right at the activation time but the initial reaction would have been unsafe. As usual, it would have been fairly tame as it hovered below the S1 Mid Pivot provide an anchor point at 946.00 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your long entry would have filled at 947.50 with no slippage, then you would have seen it continue to climb to cross the R1 Mid Pivot then hover for about 8 sec to allow an exit with about 20 ticks. Then it fell for a double bottom 1 min later before pulling back 20 ticks in 3 min while crossing the 200 SMA. After that it reversed 16 ticks in 1 min to the 100 SMA before pulling back 24 ticks in 10 min to the R1 Mid Pivot. After that it continued to oscillate between the R1 Mid Pivot and S1 Mid Pivot into the session close.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.12.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/12/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 91.3
Actual: 94.6
Previous Revision: +2.1 to 90.7
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008105 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008097 – 1000:02 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008108 – 1001:45 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008101 – 1007 (7 min)
7 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008098 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008090 (no SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008111 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008118 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD)

Notes: The report came in above the forecast by 3.3 points. This caused a quick short spike for 8 ticks in 2 sec to the PP Pivot followed by a reversal of 11 ticks to the OOD in almost 2 min. This would have filled the inner long entry at 0.008098, then allowed up to 10 ticks to be captured when the reversal peaked on the OOD. After that it pulled back for 7 ticks in 5 min and traded sideways for 30 min.

6J 09-15 ( 1 Min) 6.16.2015

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/16/2015 Monthly Building Permits / Housing Starts (0830 EDT)
Building Permits
Forecast: 1.11M
Actual: 1.28M
Previous revision: n/a
Housing Starts
Forecast: 1.10M
Actual: 1.04M
Previous revision: +0.03 to 1.17M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008110
1st Peak @ 0.008121 – 0830:02 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008111 – 0833 (3 min)
10 ticks

Pullback to 0.008117 – 0833 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008110 – 0837 (7 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly bullish but also conflicting with the BLDG Permit exceeding the forecast by 0.17M and the Housing starts falling short of the forecast by 0.06M with a large upward revision. This caused a long move of 11 ticks that started just above the 50 SMA and rose to cross the R1 Pivot and extend the HOD. Then it receded and hovered. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your long entry would have filled at 0.008115 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it backed off quickly to hover at Breakeven to allow an exit with 0-2 ticks. After that it reversed a total of 10 ticks in 2 min to the OOD before pulling back 6 ticks about 1 min later to the R1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 4 min to the 50 SMA and traded sideways.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

CPI, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/18/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 278K
Actual: 267K
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008155
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008180 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))25 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008161 – 0831:21 (2 min)
)))-19 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008173 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008156 – 0841 (11 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008143 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008135 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008167 (just above the R2 Pivot) / 0.008175 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in 11k better than the forecast but was offset by a bearish CPI report released concurrently. This caused a long spike of 25 ticks that crossed the R2 Pivot and extended the HOD before reversing. This would have filled both short entries making the average short position 0.008171. It reversed quickly to hover about 10 ticks below the peak , then eventually dipped another 9 ticks to the 200 SMA to allow up to 18 total ticks to be captured. Then it pulled back 12 ticks in 2 min before reversing 17 ticks in 7 min after crossing all 3 Major SMAs.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.18.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/18/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 8.1
Actual: 15.2
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008156
1st Peak @ 0.008147 – 1000:01 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008155 – 1003 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008145 – 1012 (12 min)
11 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008133 – 1046 (46 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.008152 – 1130 (90 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a delta of 7.1 pts, causing a short spike of 9 ticks in 1 sec that started just below the 13 SMA and fell to cross the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, you would have filled short at 0.008151 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it hover 2-3 ticks lower for 12 sec. Look to exit there with 2 ticks. It retreated, then fell again to hover in the same area late in the bar before reversing 8 ticks in 2 min to the 13 SMA. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 9 min as the 13 SMA started encroaching as resistance. After that it fell for a final peak of 14 more ticks in 34 min before reversing 19 ticks in 44 min to the 200 SMA. As it fell it used the 13/20 SMAs for resistance and after the reversal, they were used as support.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.23.2015

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jun 282015

6/23/2015 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.6%
Core Actual: 0.5%
Previous revision: -0.7% to -0.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: -1.8%
Previous Revision: -0.5% to -1.0%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008082 (shift down 2 ticks to 0.008080)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008191 – 0832:28 (3 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008078 – 0836:52 (7 min)
)))-13 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008064 – 0857 (27 min)
27 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008068 (just above the S3 Pivot) / 0.008058 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008090 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008101 (in between the S1 / S2 Mid Pivots)

Notes: The core reading matched with a moderate bearish revision while the regular reading fell short of the forecast with a moderate bearish revision. This caused a small long move of 11 ticks in about 2.5 min with a slow approach. Since the spike moved only 6 ticks in 20 sec, cancel the order. After the peak it reversed 13 ticks in 4 min to the S3 Mid Pivot, then another 14 ticks in 20 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot.

6J 09-15 (1 Min) 6.25.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 292015

6/25/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 271K
Actual: 271K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008098
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008092 – 0830:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008096 – 0830:38 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008088 – 0837 (7 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008100 – 0854 (24 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008089 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 0.008078 (just below the OOD)
Short entries – 0.008107 (just above the R2 Mid Pivot) / 0.008118 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report came in matching for a dull reaction. This caused a short spike of 6 ticks in 21 sec. Cancel the order on the matching report and small reaction. It reversed 4 ticks before falling for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks in 6 min. Then it reversed 12 ticks in 17 min to the 200 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.17.2015

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/17/2015 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 149’29
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 149’18 – 1400:23 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 150’18 – 1401:10 (2 min)
)))32 ticks

)))Pullback to 149’27 – 1402:21 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Reversal to 151’02 – 1415 (15 min)
39 ticks

Pullback to 150’03 – 1425 (25 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 151’05 – 1500 (60 min)
34 ticks

Pullback to 150’16 – 1514 (74 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 149’22 (just below the LOD) / 149’13 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 150’05 (just below the 200 SMA) / 150’13 (just above the S2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: The FED deferred the option of a rate hike to September, but stated the economy was improving since the winter quarter. This caused the expected instability with an 11 tick short spike in 23 sec followed by the reversal. This would have filled the inner short entry at 8 sec. Then you would have seen it continue to fall another 4 ticks before reversing strongly for 32 ticks in about 45 sec to the S2 Mid Pivot. This would have allowed up to 26 ticks to be captured. After that it pulled back 23 ticks in about 70 sec to the 50 SMA before reversing 39 ticks in 12 min to the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it continued to swing as it fell 31 ticks in 10 min to the 3 major SMAs before reversing 34 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot in 35 min. Then it pulled back 21 ticks in 14 min after crossing the 50 SMA.

ZB 09-15 (1 Min) 6.24.2015

Final GDP Comments Off

Jul 052015

6/24/2015 Quarterly Final GDP (0830 EDT)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 149’11
1st Peak@ 149’08 – 0830:00 (1 min)
-3 ticks

Reversal to 149’14 – 0830:00 (2 min)
6 ticks

Pullback to 149’08 – 0830:11 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 149’22 – 0838 (8 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 149’07 – 0905 (35 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, causing a small whipsaw that fell 3 ticks then reversed 6 ticks and fell 6 ticks in a total of 11 sec. With JOBB and a 2 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 149’09, then you would have been stopped at 149’13 for a 4 tick loss. The instability was due to the match, but after the initial 50 sec, it trended into a long move of 14 ticks in 7 min to cross the R1 Pivot before reversing 15 ticks in 27 min to cross the R1 Mid Pivot.

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