US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Mar 082016

NG 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: -82B
Actual: -70B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.051
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1031:17 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 2.029 – 1034 (4 min)
22 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.983 – 1128 (58 min)
68 ticks

Reversal to 2.003 – 1141 (71 min)
20 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.041 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.008 – 33 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.008 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Fairly Stable short spike offered a rare no slippage fill then would have targeted the S1 Pivot nicely after about 1.5 min. After a small reversal, it turned into a slow downtrend to gather another 24 ticks and eclipse the S2 Mid Pivot.

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 042016

6J 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)
Forecast: 92.6
Actual: 90.7
Previous Revision: -1.3 to 92.0
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008878
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008870 – 0959:53 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008889 – 1001:23 (2 min)
)))-11 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008856 – 1032 (32 min)
33 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008871 (just below the 200 SMA) / 0.008863 (just below the 100 SMA)
Short entries – 0.008885 (No SMA/Pivot near) / 0.008894 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot – on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 0.008871 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.008888 – 17 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.008885 (inner short tier)

Notes: Nice inner tier fill was a bit premature then the news drove the reaction long to fill the inner short tier for about 14 ticks. After that it fell 33 ticks in the next 30 min.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2.9.2016

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Mar 012016

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 2_9_2016

2/9/2016 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 360.75
1st Peak @ 359.25 – 1200:20 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 362.50 – 1208 (8 min)
13 ticks

Pullback to 360.75 – 1210 (10 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 362.75 – 1218 (18 min)
8 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1318 (78 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: 359.50 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Exit: 359.25 – 1 tick
Recommended Profit Target placement: 355.25 (below the S3 Mid Pivot) – move up after small spike

Notes: Dull reaction barely filled then hovered just above the S2 Mid Pivot for 2 min. Look to exit between breakeven and 2 ticks loss. The subsequent swings were also small.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Feb 282016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_26_2016

2/26/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – OUTER TIER
Anchor Point @ 166’03
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’03 – 0830:34 (1 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’14 – 0843 (13 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 165’26 – 0848 (18 min)
12 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’30 (No SMA / Pivot near)/ 165’27 (above the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 166’08 (just below the 50 SMA) / 166’11 (in between the 50 and 100 SMAs)

Expected Fill: 165’30 and 165’27 – both long entries
Best Initial Exit: 166’02 – 11 total ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’03 (just below the S1 Pivot and the origin) – move lower

Notes: Huge offset in context saw an outer tier fill and still large reversal for a good trap trade setup. Be careful here not to linger too long as the overall news is strong and sure to see short follow through after the reversal. We saw a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks in 12 min then a reversal.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.26.2016

7y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 282016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_26_2016

2/26/2016 7-yr Bond Auction (1131 EST)
Previous: 1.76/2.6
Actual: 1.57/2.3
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 165’29 (1131)
1st Peak @ 165’15 – 1132:20 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 165’27 – 1136 (5 min)
12 ticks

Continued Reversal to 166’01 – 1203 (62 min)
18 ticks

Expected Fill: 165’26 (short)
Slippage: 1 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 165’16 – 10 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 165’21 (just below the 3 Major SMAs)

Notes: Large quick spike cut right through several layers of support to allow up to 10 ticks to be captured. No 2nd peak probably due to the lingering effect of the strong support just crossed as it reversed 12 ticks in 4 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.19.2016

CPI Comments Off

Feb 282016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_19_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_19_2016

2/19/2016 Core CPI (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: -0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER STOPPED
Anchor Point @ 166’11
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 165’28 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-15 ticks

)))Reversal to 166’06 – 0831:00 (2 min)
)))10 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 165’23 – 0839 (9 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 166’12 – 0855 (25 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 166’05 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot / OOD)
Short entry – 166’18 (on the OOD)

Expected Fill: 166’05 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: stopped at 166’00 for 5 tick loss or if stop disabled – 166’05 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: First reaction we have seen over 9 ticks since the ZB started reacting to this report. The stop may have been disabled do to the speed of the spike. If so, trust the reversal and add a 2nd long position at 165’29 where it hovered before reversing. Then exit at 166’05 where it hovered again. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks before reversing to eclipse the 50 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.17.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_17_2016

2/17/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 164’10
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 164’15 – 1400:29 (1 min)
)))5 ticks

)))Reversal to 164’09 – 1401:44 (2 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Pullback to 164’16 – 1404 (4 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 163’31 – 1422 (22 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 164’23 – 1457 (57 min)
24 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 164’06 (just below the 200 SMA) / 164’01 (just above the S3 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 164’14 or 15 (No SMA / Pivot near) / 164’19 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Expected Fill: 164’14 or 164’15 (inner short tier)
Best Initial Exit: 164’10 – 4 to 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 164’09 (just above the 50 /100 SMAs) and 164’06 (just under the 200 SMA)

Notes: Nice setup for about 5 ticks on the initial reversal. Then it continued to cycle with the swings increasing in span for the next hour. As it bottomed on the S3 Mid Pivot and changed direction with the LOD below, it would have been safe to enter long.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.12.2016

Retail Sales Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_12_2016 ZB 03-16 (Second) 2_12_2016

2/12/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.1%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.2%
INDECISIVE…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 168’03
1st Peak @ 167’18 – 0830:30 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 167’24 – 0832 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’16 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 158’01 – 0908 (38 min)
17 ticks

Expected Fill: 167’28 (short)
Slippage: 4 ticks on fill / 1 tick on stop
Best Initial Exit: 168’02 – stopped for 6 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: 167’18 (just below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Should have been a great 2nd peak trade, but spoiled with initially instability as it reversed quickly and sharply after the initial fill to hit the stop. As the results were positive, you could have entered the market short again after the stop out at 167’26 where it hovered on the 100 SMA between 0830:06 and 0830:18 then captured about 7 ticks in 10 sec. Then 2nd peak achieved 2 more ticks then reversed 17 ticks in about 30 min.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.11.2016

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_11_2016

2/11/2016 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.91/2.3
Actual: 2.50/2.1
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 169’12 (1301:30)
1st Peak @ 168’14 – 1302:44 (2 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 168’24 – 1306 (5 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 168’04 – 1320 (19 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 169’14 – 1438 (97 min)
42 ticks

Expected Fill: 169’08 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 168’15 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 168’28 (12 ticks)

Notes: Large short spike and 2nd peak due the big drop in the Highest yield. Although 25 ticks were available more than likely a modest profit target would have filled earlier. 42 tick reversal after the 2nd peak in a little over an hour.

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2.10.2016

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 272016

ZB 03-16 (1 Min) 2_10_2016

2/10/2015 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.09/2.8
Actual: 1.73/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 166’14 (1301)
1st Peak @ 166’20 – 1301:36 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 166’13 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 167’03 – 1354 (53 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 166’28 – 1407 (66 min)
7 ticks

Expected Fill: 166’16 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 166’19 – 3 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 166’19 and 166’21 (just below / above the 100 / 50 SMAs)

Notes: Spike was quick to shoot 6 ticks reaching the 100 SMA then hovering for 20 sec to allow 3 ticks to be captured. Then it reversed to the 200 SMA before climbing for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks in the next hour.

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