US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.9.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/9/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.4
Actual: 3.90/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 129’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 129’06 – 1303 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 129’10 – 1310 (9 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 129’04 – 1337 (36 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose stayed the same from last month but the bid to cover ratio was slightly higher signifying greater demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 6 ticks as it started just above the R1 Pivot and crossed the 200 SMA and R2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 129’02 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 3-4 ticks if you were patient. With the R2 Pivot at 129’05, a target there or 1 tick higher would have been ideal. It continued to rise for 4 more ticks in the next 7 min, then it reversed for 6 ticks back to the 50 SMA and R2 Pivot in the next 27 min.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/8/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.6
Actual: 3.01/2.7
DULL REACTION
Started @ 128’15 (1301)
1st Peak @ 128’11 – 1302 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 128’18 – 1307 (6 min)
7 ticks

Extended Reversal to 128’22 – 1359 (58 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose above 3.00 for the first time since May 2011. This caused the ZB to fall for a meager 4 ticks in 1 bar as it hit the S3 Pivot, then retreat back to where it started in a dull reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 128’12 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover within 1 tick on either side of the fill point late in the :02 bar and into the :03 bar. Look to exit at breakeven or 1 tick loss. As is common in dull reactions on the 10-y, it reversed for 7 ticks to cross the 100 SMA and hit the S3 Mid Pivot, then fell again in an attempt for a 2nd peak that fell short by 1 tick of reaching the S3 Pivot. Then it rose for an 11 tick extended reversal just before the 1400 hour when the FOMC minutes were released.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.10.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/10/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 196K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 74K
Previous Revision: +38K to 241K
Rate Forecast: 7.0%
Rate Actual: 6.7%
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 129’10
1st Peak @ 130’24 – 0831 (1 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 129’23 – 0840 (10 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 130’19 – 1006 (96 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Strongly negative report missing the mark by 122K jobs, offset by a moderate previous upward revision of 38K jobs, and a drop of 0.3% in the unemployment U-3 rate due to over half a million people falling out of the labor force. This caused a decisive long spike with no premature move or market freeze that started on the 200 SMA and crossed the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reached the R4 Pivot for 46 ticks then left 20 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 129’19 with about 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture up to 30+ ticks with a target or exit within 10 sec as it hovered near the top of the bar. As the bar expired it drifted lower to hover in between the R3 Mid and R3 Pivots. After the :31 bar, it hovered around the R3 Pivot for a few min before reversing to the R2 Pivot on the :40 bar for a total of 33 ticks. Then it pulled back to gain 28 ticks in the next hour and a half as it eclipsed the R4 Mid Pivot.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 1.10.2014

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/10/2014 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 406.50
1st Peak @ 420.00 – 1201 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 413.75 – 1202 (2 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 428.50 – 1206 (6 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 419.50 – 1212 (12 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 432.75 – 1310 (70 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 428.75 – 1319 (79 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a strong bullish reaction. It climbed 54 ticks, crossing all 3 major Pivots and the R2 Pivot, before backing off and chopping between the R1 and R2 Pivots. With JOBB, unfortunately you would not have been filled long as slippage would have been too great. In this case, it when the entry is gapped, it can be a safe play to try to manually buy on the internal retracement of the :01 bar. I manually moved my long entry to about 412.00, just above the PP Pivot and it was just missed, but if filled, it would have given another 25 ticks to be captured. After the 1st peak, it left about 24 ticks on the wick naked, but the next 3 bars regained the deficit as it hovered around the R2 Mid Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 34 more ticks on the :06 bar to nearly reach the R4 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 36 ticks back to the 13 SMA, before developing into an upward FAN that achieved another 17 tick greater peak, reaching the R4 Pivot about 1 hr later. Then it backed off 16 ticks to the R4 Mid Pivot in 9 min and continued trading sideways between the pivots until the session closed.

ZC 03-14 (1 Min) 1.10.2014

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 406.50
1st Peak @ 420.00 – 1201 (1 min)
54 ticks

Reversal to 413.75 – 1202 (2 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 428.50 – 1206 (6 min)
88 ticks

Reversal to 419.50 – 1212 (12 min)
36 ticks

Final Peak @ 432.75 – 1310 (70 min)
105 ticks

Reversal to 428.75 – 1319 (79 min)
16 ticks

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 1.8.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Jan 112014

1/8/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 199K
Actual: 238K
Previous revision: +14K to 229K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 129’03
1st Peak @ 128’25 – 0816 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 128’19 – 0821 (6 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 128’26 – 0830 (15 min)
7 ticks

Final Peak @ 128’18 – 0841 (26 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 128’26 – 0915 (60 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by 39K jobs along with a moderate 14K upward revision to the previous report. This caused a short reaction of 10 ticks, that started on all 3 SMAs in a tight fist, then fell, bottoming on the :16 bar as it collided with the S2 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 128’31 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hit the S2 Pivot and hover within 2 ticks for the majority of the :16 bar. I would place a target at 128’24, 1 tick below the S2 and wait for it to fill with the strong results. This would have given you 7 ticks profit. After the peak, it continued to hover around the S2 Pivot, then trickled lower to target the S3 Mid Pivot for 6 more ticks 5 min later. Then it reversed for 7 ticks back to the S2 Pivot and 13/20 SMAs. Then it repeated the drop and reverse cycle, as it gained 1 more tick on the drop.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 1.7.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jan 082014

1/7/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -40.2B
Actual: -34.3B
Previous Revision: +1.3B to -39.3B
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.009579
1st Peak @ 0.009572 – 0832 (2 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009566 – 0842 (12 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.009578 – 0849 (19 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with another reading in the -30s. The news caused a dull move initially that only achieved 7 ticks on the :31 bar to match the low and find support at the same area as 45 min earlier. With JOBB you would filled short at 0.009575 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it hover between your fill point and +3 ticks. Look to exit with 1-2 ticks of profit when it failed to launch. After hovering for about 10 min, it was able to achieve a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 12 ticks in 7 min back to the 200 SMA.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.12.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

12/12/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 321K
Actual: 368K
TRAP TRADE
Anchor Point @ 0.009728 (avg price position for last few min)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009709 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009735 – 0830:12 (1 min)
)))26 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009710 – 0832:31 (3 min)
)))-25 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009720 – 0840 (10 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.009705 – 0846 (16 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.009722 – 0905 (35 min)
17 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009714 (just below the LOD)
Short entry – 0.009740 (above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in strongly worse than the forecast by 47k jobs, but was offset by a moderately strong retail sales report. This combined to cause a volatile, indecisive double wicker on the :31 bar swinging between the S1 Mid Pivot and 6 ticks below the LOD. That would have easily filled your long entry at 0.009714 with 5 ticks to spare. In the first 2 sec, there were several large swings, but it eventually settled down for about 15 sec to hover around 0.009733. Given the situation with conflicting news and volatile swings, look to exit there for about 20 ticks. It fell again in the latter part of the :31 bar and into the :32 and :33 bars as the retail sales news took over. It achieved a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks on the :46 bar before reversing 17 ticks back to the 50 SMA / S1 Pivot 20 min later.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 12.5.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

12/5/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 328K
Actual: 298K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.009793 (avg price position for last few min)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009772 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009784 – 0831:02 (2 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.009775 – 0831:43 (2 min)
)))-9 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.009800 – 0858 (28 min)
25 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.009812 – 0916 (46 min)
37 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009780 (above the PP Pivot/OOD with a 13 tick offset)
Short entry – 0.009806 (no barrier present – 13 tick offset)

Notes Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 30k jobs, causing a large unsustainable short spike that reached the PP Pivot for 21 ticks. That would have easily filled your long entry at 0.009780. Due to the large offset we saw a larger spike, so you would have spent several seconds in the red with about 5-6 ticks. Then you would have an opportunity for 2-3 ticks as the bar expired, or be patient and wait for a longer developing reversal and trail the stop higher. Be wary of a potential 2nd Peak and do not look for a target higher than 6-7 ticks as it encounters the 20 SMA. It eventually kept climbing, but that is not a certainty. The reversal reached the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot, stalled and backed off, then continued climbing after about 25 min for another 12 ticks.

6J 12-13 (1 Min) 11.27.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Dec 282013

11/27/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 316K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE / REVERSE)
Anchor Point @ 0.009827 (avg price position for last few min)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009815 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009826 – 0833:01 (4 min)
)))11 ticks
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entry – 0.009815 (below the S2 Pivot)
Short entry – 0.009840 (below the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in moderately better than the forecast by 15k jobs, causing a 12 tick short spike that was halted at the S2 Pivot while it also extended the LOD. This would have filled the long entry to the tick, then given you 6 ticks as the bar expired and another 5 ticks into the :33 bar. An exit at or just above the 200 SMA for about 10 ticks would be recommended. After the reversal, there were no move discernible moves as it traded sideways within 3 ticks of the 200 SMA until 0920.

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