US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.11.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 202013

7/11/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 3.36/2.5
Actual: 3.66/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’21 (1301)
1st Peak @ 134’00 – 1302 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 133’22 – 1309 (8 min)
10 ticks

2nd peak @ 134’03 – 1325 (24 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 133’24 – 1349 (48 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose substantially compared to last month as the talk of tapering of QE3 continues to take its toll. This caused the bonds to rally for 11 ticks, crossing the 200 SMA and the R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’25 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to capture about 6 ticks at most with ease. After the spike it reversed for 10 ticks in the next 7 min back to the 50/100 SMAs. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 14 ticks in the following 16 min before reversing 11 ticks back to the 100 SMA again. After that, it continued to slowly rally until the end of the trading session.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.10.2013

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 202013

7/10/2013 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.21/2.5
Actual: 2.67/2.6
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 133’01 (1301)
1st Peak @ 132’28 – 1302 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 133’09 – 1315 (14 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose significantly from the previous auction again as the threat of the FED to scale back QE3 later this year continues to take its toll. This caused the ZB to spike short for only 5 ticks then retreat after only 10 sec. With JOBB you would have filled short at 132’30 with 1 tick of slippage. It had the S2 Pivot and LOD acting as support to restrict the short move. It fell 2 ticks beyond the fill point, but then pulled back. I had a 2 tick auto break even that let me out of the trade with a 1 tick loss. Try to exit with 2-3 ticks loss before it hits the 4 tick default stop. The reversal was routine gaining 13 ticks in 13 min back up to eclipse the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA. After that it backed off and traded sideways before the FOMC minutes at 1400.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 7.10.2013

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 202013

7/10/2013 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’02
1st Peak @ 132’26 – 1401 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 133’18 – 1402 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 132’21 – 1459 (59 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 132’30 – 1525 (85 min)
9 ticks

Notes: About half of FED members felt that the bond buying program could be phased out by the end of 2013. Still, assurances were given that QE3 would not be halted in 2 months as initially feared. This caused the bonds to fall 8 ticks, hover for about 8 sec near the LOD, then reverse 24 ticks in the next 2 min to eclipse the PP Pivot and OOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at 133’00 with no slippage, then a 5 tick profit target would have filled. I had a 6 tick profit target with a breakeven setting of 4 ticks, so I was stopped with 0 ticks. The reaction is usually quick and shortly sustained, so a trap trade approach may be worthy too. After the strong reversal, it chopped up and down and eventually fell for a 2nd peak of 13 ticks nearly an hour after the report, reaching the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks in 26 min, crossing the 50 SMA.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 7.11.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 192013

7/11/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 517.25
1st Peak @ 510.25 – 1201 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 518.00 – 1201 (1 min)
31 ticks

Extended Reversal to 527.75 – 1259 (59 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a mild short spike of only 28 ticks over 1 bars, that started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs then fell to nearly reach the S3 Mid Pivot for 28 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 514.00 with 1 ticks of slippage if you did not tighten the bracket or near 515.50 if you had. It came down to the low immediately, then hovered for 9 sec between 510.25 and about 512.50. Due to the extension of the LOD and hovering, look to exit at about 511.00. After 9 sec, it retreated back to the 200 SMA in 20 more seconds, then fell to close the bar near its low position. After 3 more bars chopped in between the S2 and S3 Mid Pivots, it reversed for 70 ticks in about an hour, eclipsing the R2 Mid Pivot. Then it backed off of the high and traded sideways for a while.

ZC 12-13 (1 Min) 6.28.2013

Grain Stocks Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/28/2013 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 528.50
1st Peak @ 525.00 – 1200:00 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 541.00 – 1200:08 (1 min)
-64 ticks

2nd Peak @ 516.00 – 1200:40 (1 min)
50 ticks

Final Peak @ 511.00 – 1202 (2 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 524.50 – 1207 (7 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a dangerous scenario of a double wicker. It shot short for 13 ticks in the opening second, then reversed long for 64 ticks in the next 8 sec. It methodically fell for a total of 100 ticks after that to the end of the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 526.00 with 4ticks of slippage, then your opposite entry would have filled at about 532.00 with 8 ticks of slippage resulting in a 24 tick loss. It is unclear what caused the dangerous reaction, and very little banner news is available to discuss the results of the report. The overall trend ended up being quite bearish as the dust settled, the ZC was trading about 50 ticks lower than where it was before the report. It achieved a final peak at 511.00 on the :02 bar for 70 ticks from the origin, before reversing back to the 20 SMA and S4 Pivot for 54 ticks. Then it drifted lower and traded sideways until the session closed. After the previous 5 reports we had observed were safe, this was quite a disappointment.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 75.2
Actual: 81.4
Previous revision: -1.9 to 74.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 134’21
1st Peak @ 134’11 – 1001 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 133’31 – 1020 (20 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 134’17 – 1110 (70 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast by a decent margin and again saw the highest reading in many years. This report was scheduled at the same time as New Home Sales which came in very bullish too. The New Home sales came in a few sec before this report causing a bit of a pullback after the fill. With JOBB you would have filled short at 134’19 with no slippage, then a 4 tick stop would have been hit, but a 5 tick stop would have ridden out the pullback. Then the :01 bar eclipsed the PP Pivot for 10 ticks and pulled back about 5 ticks. Then it conquered the PP Pivot after 3 min and achieved a 2nd peak for 12 more ticks in 20 min, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot. Then it slowly reversed for 18 ticks back to the PP Pivot and 100 SMA about 50 min later.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.25.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 192013

6/25/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.0%
Core Actual: 0.7%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 1.5%
Regular Forecast: 3.0%
Regular Actual: 3.6%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 3.5%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010269
Premature spike @ 0.010275 – 0830 (0 min)
6 ticks

1st peak @ 0.010239 – 0831 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 0.010255 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010233 – 0902 (32 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.010262 – 0921 (51 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report came in overall bullish and impressed the market. This caused a 6 tick fake spike long followed by the true 30 tick short move that bottomed on the :31 bar, hitting the PP Pivot and OOD, leaving 7 ticks on the tail naked. Then it reversed for 16 ticks in 2 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the fake spike, and then stopped out with a 5 tick loss. An activation time of :58 or :59 sec would have been ideal to catch the short move. After the 1st peak, it chopped sideways, struggling with the strong support of the PP Pivot, only able to garner another 6 ticks on a 2nd peak. Then it reversed back to the 100 SMA for 29 ticks 20 min later.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Jul 152013

6/19/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 139’04 (1400)
Premature Spike @ 139’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

1st Peak @ 138’22 – 1401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 137’21 – 1455 (55 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 138’04 – 1503 (63 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that hit the PP Pivot and quickly reversed and turned into a downward fan as the demand for bonds was seen to be waning with QE3 being threatened to scale back. JOBB is not recommended for this report, but a short entry would have been advisable on the long retracement on the 1403 bar. Use the 50 SMA as the trail stop and/or look to exit after a sizeable 10+ tick move in a few min. It hit a climactic peak at 1455 just above the S3 Pivot for 49 ticks, then reversed for 15 ticks in 8 min. Since this was after the pit close and late in the trading day, additional trades would be discouraged, but it kept testing the LOD and then trended lower as volume and price action dried up.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 6.26.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/26/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.9M
Actual: 0.0M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.12
1st Peak @ 94.41 – 1031 (1 min)
71 ticks

Reversal to 94.70 – 1032 (2 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.68 – 1043 (13 min)
144 ticks

Reversal to 94.79 – 1101 (31 min)
111 ticks

Extended Reversal to 95.60 – 1226 (116 min)
192 ticks

Notes: No change in inventories when a moderate draw was expected, while gasoline saw a healthy gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply and the gain in gas brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 71 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S1 Pivot and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot, followed by a pullback of 29 ticks that retreated to the S1 Pivot. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 94.96 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it drop like a rock to give you 40-50 ticks capturable on the :31 bar. After the pullback, it fell for a 2nd peak of 115 more ticks in the next 10 min, eclipsing the S2 Pivot and extending the LOD. Then it reversed for 111 ticks in about 20 min, and another 80 ticks in the next 1.5 hrs. Very large movement for this report.

CL 08-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/19/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: 0.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.76
1st Peak @ 98.37 – 1032 (2 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 98.71 – 1036 (6 min)
34 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.26 – 1105 (35 min)
50 ticks

Reversal to 98.65 – 1146 (76 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching small gain on the crude inventories, while gasoline saw a small gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs, so the overall high supply likely brought in the bears. We saw a short spike of 39 ticks in 2 min that eclipsed the PP Pivot by 12 ticks, followed by a quick reversal that retreated to the 100/50 SMAs. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 98.65 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen it chop between +/- 5 ticks. I decided to set the target for 98.58 and it filled easily on the :32 bar after it was able to overcome the support in the 98.60 area. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 11 more ticks, eclipsing the S1 Mid Pivot in the next 30 min. Then it reversed for 39 ticks in about 40 min, reaching the 200 SMA.

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