US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/12/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.4M
Actual: 2.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 95.88
1st Peak @ 95.72 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-39 ticks

2nd Peak @ 95.50 – 1054 (24 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 96.45 – 1124 (54 min)
95 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain on the crude inventories when a small draw was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate gain. Commercial oil inventories remain just off of record highs. We saw a short spike of 16 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the R1 Pivot, followed by a choppy reversal that crossed the 100/50 SMAs and hit the R2 Mid Pivot for 39 ticks. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at 95.76 with 2 ticks of slippage, then seen it chop between 3 and 14 ticks in the red. The safe play in this situation would be to collapse the stop loss to about -7 ticks and look to exit as close to break even as possible. Otherwise, you would have been stopped for -15 ticks about 45 sec into the :31 bar. After the :31 bar, it chopped lower to cross the 200 SMA for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks in 20 min, then it reversed for 95 ticks in 30 min to extend the HOD 15 ticks.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/5/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.8M
Actual: -6.3M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 94.02
1st Peak @ 94.27 – 1031 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 94.10 – 1032 (2 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.48 – 1032 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 93.78 – 1107 (37 min)
70 ticks

Notes: Large draw on the crude inventories when a much smaller draw was expected, while gasoline saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories finally backed off of their record highs as refinery activity saw a sharp rise. Even with the large draw, the bigger picture still has a supply driven market and the long move was restrained. We saw a long spike of 25 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the HOD and quickly retreated, leaving 17 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at 94.16 with 4 ticks of slippage, then seen the large swings between +/- 10 ticks. If you played it out, the secondary ascent would have given you some nice profit of 20 + ticks. If you took a more conservative exit near breakeven, that is okay too. After the 1st peak, the 32 bar achieved a 2nd peak of 21 more ticks that held for several minutes, then it reversed for 70 ticks in 30 min, eclipsing the R1 Mid Pivot and the OOD.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.27.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/27/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 347K
Actual: 346K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010187
1st Peak @ 0.010178 – 0831 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.010227 – 0831 (1 min)
-49 ticks

Notes: Report came in matching the forecast causing an indecisive reaction. Fortunately, the premature volatility was a tripwire to disable the strategy and cancel the order. It started chopping between the 20/13 SMAs and 200 SMA, then spiked short initially for 9 ticks before reversing for 49 ticks. Then it fell back to settle about 15 ticks higher. With JOBB, you would have filled short then taken a 12-14 tick loss with slippage. After the :31 bar, it slowly fell to the S2 Pivot in the next 30 min, then traded sideways.

6J 09-13 (1 Min) 6.20.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 142013

6/20/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 354K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010225
1st Peak @ 0.010247 – 0831 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 0.010234 – 0832 (2 min)
13 ticks

2nd peak @ 0.010256 – 0837 (7 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.010224 – 0853 (23 min)
32 ticks

Notes: Report came in worse than the forecast by 11k jobs, causing a long spike of 22 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways above the SMAs. It crossed the S2 Mid Pivot, peaked about 6 ticks higher, then pulled back for a 13 tick reversal on the :32 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at about 0.010231 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S2 Mid Pivot for 10+ ticks. After the reversal of 13 ticks, it rallied for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks as it encountered resistance in the 0.010250 area. Then it reversed for 32 ticks in the following 16 min, reaching the 100 SMA.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.5.2013

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jul 082013

6/5/2013 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 93.75
1st Peak @ 93.66 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 93.82 – 1001 (1 min)
-16 ticks

Notes: Nearly matching report caused a muted, but indecisive reaction. ISM was slightly positive, while the concurrent factory orders were negative. It spiked short for 9 ticks to hit an area of support in the area of 93.69 established in the previous 30 min, then rebounded long for 16 ticks after 11 sec, nearly reaching the 200 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 93.70 with 1 tick of slippage, then you would have been stopped with an 11 tick loss (1 tick of slippage) unless you were quick and closed out with less of a loss. After the initial indecisive bar, it attempted to go lower a few more times, but was unable to penetrate 93.66. Then it rebounded up to 94.13 15 min later for an extended reversal. After that it drifted lower before the inventory report took it long. This is the first indecisive reaction we have seen on this report in more than 18 months, but the matching ISM and offsetting factory orders reaction were the root cause.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.19.2013

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Jul 082013

6/19/2013 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 139’04 (1400)
Premature/Fake Spike @ 139’14 – 1401 (1 min)
10 ticks

1st Peak @ 138’22 – 1401 (1 min)
16 ticks

Final Peak @ 137’21 – 1455 (55 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 138’04 – 1503 (63 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report released on time, as the FED chose to continue the existing open ended QE3 policy despite seeing certain indications of improving economic conditions, but reiterated previous comments about tapering off the bond buying later in the year. This caused an initial long move that hit the PP Pivot and quickly reversed and turned into a downward fan as the demand for bonds was seen to be waning in the future with QE3 being threatened to scale back. JOBB is not recommended for this report, but a short entry would have been advisable on the long retracement on the 1403 bar. Use the 50 SMA as the trail stop and/or look to exit after a sizeable 10+ tick move in a few min. It hit a climactic peak at 1455 just above the S3 Pivot for 49 ticks, then reversed for 15 ticks in 8 min. Since the final peak was after the pit close and late in the trading day, additional trades would be discouraged, but it kept testing the LOD and then trended lower as volume and price action dried up.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.7.2013

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/7/2013 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 167K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 175K
Previous Revision: -16K to 149K
Rate Forecast: 7.5%
Rate Actual: 7.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 141’06
1st Peak @ 140’02 – 0831 (1 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 141’22 – 0834 (4 min)
56 ticks

Notes: Mixed report showing only 8K more jobs created than expected, a moderate previous downward revision of 16K jobs, and a 0.1% increase in the unemployment U-3 rate due to more people looking for work. This caused the bonds to selloff for 36 ticks on the :30 and :31 bars, eclipsing the S1 Pivot, but unable to sustain the move as it retreated after 9 sec. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 140’27 with abnormally high 5 ticks of slippage. Then you would have seen a 5 sec delay in the chart until 4 sec into the :31 bar when it continued short to 140’02. Then it retreated quickly up to 140’29 near breakeven. The correct play if you did not have a profit target that filled would be to close out as it started retreating more than 8 ticks. I managed to exit at 140’15 to capture 12 ticks. This is the ZB’s version of an indecisive reaction as the results were mixed, but it still gave a quick and capturable profit. The reversal recovered 56 ticks in 4 min, crossing all 3 major SMAs and hitting the HOD. Then it fell again in the next 11 min to miss a double bottom by 3 ticks. Then it kept chopping mildly lower using the 100 SMA as resistance for several hours.

CL 07-13 (1 Min) 6.17.2013

Empire State Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/17/2013 Monthly Empire State Manufacturing Index (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4
Actual: 7.8
DULL REACTION
Started @ 98.26
1st Peak @ 98.32 – 0831 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 97.91 – 0846 (16 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report moderately exceeded the forecast and barely impressed the market. It was also caught in the middle of a small correction after a large short move in the previous hour. The correction had exhausted the bulls as it ran into the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot and then it was looking for another short move. The moderately bullish news was not enough to sustain the long move. We saw an initial long move of 6 ticks, then it stalled and hovered before slowly falling. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 98.30 with no slippage, then look to exit near breakeven as it only gave you about 1-2 ticks of profit opportunity. After the :31 and :32 bars hovered above the 50 SMA, it fell for a reversal of 41 ticks in the next 15 min.

ZB 09-13 (1 Min) 6.13.2013

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/13/2013 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.98/2.5
Actual: 3.36/2.5
INDECISIVE
Started @ 139’24 (1301)
1st Peak @ 139’30 – 1302 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 139’11 – 1302 (1 min)
-19 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose substantially compared to last month. This caused an unfortunate and shocking indecisive reaction for the second time in three months on one of our safest reports. It spiked long for 6 ticks, then immediately reversed for 19 ticks, and continued lower until the :05 bar. With JOBB you would have filled long at 139’28 with 1 tick of slippage, then stopped with 4 ticks of slippage for an 9 tick loss. The spike eclipsed the R2 Mid Pivot and the HOD, then reversed to cross all major SMAs and the R1 Pivot. Then the extended reversal crossed the R1 Mid Pivot and nearly reached the OOD before it popped back up to correct long in the next 20 min.

ZC 07-13 (1 Min) 6.12.2013

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jul 042013

6/12/2013 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (1200 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 658.50 (11:59:25)
1st Peak @ 646.25 – 1202 (2 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 658.25 – 1205 (5 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 49 ticks over 2 bars, that started below all 3 major SMAs (using the 200 SMA as resistance) and eclipsed the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 654.00 with 6 ticks of slippage. After struggling to go lower than the S1 Pivot for several seconds, it eventually succumbed and crashed for another 20+ ticks. If you were patient, 25 ticks could have been captured with ease. If not, 10 or so ticks would have been available. After the spike, it reversed very quickly back to the origin in only 3 min, then it attempted to go lower again, but only was able to briefly penetrate the S1 Pivot. After that it traded sideways between the S1 and S1 Mid Pivots.

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