US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.9.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 242013

5/9/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 333K
Actual: 323K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010128
1st Peak @ 0.010112 – 0831 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.010124 – 0844 (14 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010061 – 0934 (64 min)
67 ticks

Reversal to 0.010086 – 1029 (119 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10k jobs, causing a short spike of 16 ticks on 1 bar after the market had been trading sideways in a tight fist. It found support on the S1 Mid Pivot, and crossed the 50/100 SMAs at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010121 with 2 ticks of slippage, then wait for it to target the S1 Mid Pivot for 6 ticks. After the 1st peak, it reversed for 12 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 51 more ticks, bottoming in between the S3 Mid Pivot and the S3 Pivot about 1 hr later. Then it reversed slowly for only 25 ticks in the following hr, eclipsing the 200 SMA.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 5.2.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 232013

5/2/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 346K
Actual: 324K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.010213
1st Peak @ 0.010187 – 0831 (1 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010165 – 0839 (9 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 0.010248 – 0931 (61 min)
83 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 18k jobs, causing a short spike of 26 ticks on 2 bars after a selloff had commenced about 30 min earlier. It found support on the S3 Mid Pivot, but did not cross any SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 0.010206 with 2 ticks of slippage, then either close out as the :31 bar is expiring, or wait for it to target the S3 Mid Pivot for 14 ticks. After the 1st peak, it pulled back about 9 ticks, then continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks at the S3 Pivot. After that, it reversed for 83 ticks in about 50 min to eclipse the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

4/24/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.5%
Core Actual: -1.4%
Previous revision: -0.2% to -0.7%
Regular Forecast: -2.9%
Regular Actual: -5.7%
Previous Revision: -0.1% to 5.6%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.010052
1st Peak @ 0.010070 – 0831 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reverse to 0.010049 – 0853 (19 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in solidly bearish and disappointing overall. This caused an 18 tick long move that peaked on the :31 bar, crossing the S1 Mid Pivot and hitting the HOD. Then it surrendered 12 ticks before achieving a double top on the :38 bar. Then it reversed for 21 ticks in 15 min, crossing the 100/50 SMAs and nearly reaching the 200 SMA. After a double bottom, it reversed for 31 ticks in about 10 min to the R1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 0.010058 with 2 ticks of slippage. Then it popped up to 0.010070 early in the bar and retreated after that. This is a good report to use a profit trigger of about 10 ticks. If you were not quick enough to exit on the :31 bar with more than 5 ticks of profit, wait on the :32/ :33 bars for 5 or more ticks with the large naked wick on the :31 bar.

6J 06-13 (1 Min) 3.26.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

3/26/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.7%
Core Actual: -0.5%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 2.3%
Regular Forecast: 3.9%
Regular Actual: 5.7%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to -4.9%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010607
1st Peak @ 0.010597 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reverse to 0.010620 – 0837 (7 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar though not as much as last month causing a quick spike and pullback for a small indecisive reaction. It shorted 10 ticks to nearly reach the LOD, then popped back up after 5 sec to return to the origin. The core reading was moderately negative while the regular reading was strongly positive and the previous revisions were mildly positive. Since the forecasts were both positive, this was a safer proposition than last month. With JOBB you would have filled short at 0.010602 with 1 tick of slippage. If you were quick you could have secured up to 4 ticks, otherwise you would have been stopped with a 5 tick loss after about 35 sec.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 2.27.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

2/27/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.3%
Core Actual: 1.9%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.0%
Regular Forecast: -4.8%
Regular Actual: -5.2%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 4.3%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.010913
1st Peak @ 0.010917 – 0831 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 0.010907 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.010949 – 0840 (10 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 010932 – 0848 (18 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in as bipolar causing indecision. The core reading was strongly positive while the regular reading was strongly negative and the previous revisions were moderately negative. This caused a 4 tick long move, followed by an immediate 10 tick reversal. With the strongly divergent forecasts, this should have been warning enough to disqualify the report and was a lesson learned. With JOBB, this would have caused a long fill at about 0.010917 with no slippage, then you would have seen it reverse quickly to stop you out with a 6 tick loss with 1 tick of slippage. The :31 bar continued to be erratic bouncing between 0.010907 and 0.010919. Then the follow on reaction rallied 36 ticks for a 2nd peak.

6J 03-13 (1 Min) 1.28.2013

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

1/28/2013 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 1.3%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: 1.8%
Regular Actual: 4.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.8%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.011006
1st Peak @ 0.010990 – 0832 (2 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 010981 – 0836 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 0.011039 – 1001 (91 min)
58 ticks

Notes: Report came in very positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were overall slightly negative. The report was delayed about 90 sec, so the spike did not occur until late on the :32 bar. This caused a short spike of 16 ticks that crossed the 50 SMA and the PP Pivot, then found support at the PP Pivot initially. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.011000. Look to exit at or just below the PP Pivot around 0.010993 to be safe since the market was already trending lower and the PP Pivot is normally a very strong barrier. After the 1st peak, it retreated 8 ticks, then fell again for a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks only 3 min later. Then it double bottomed 10 min later before reversing 58 ticks in the next 75 min, riding the 13/20 SMAs.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 11.27.2012

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 0.012177
1st Peak @ 0.012161 – 0835 (5 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.012172 – 0840 (10 min)
11 ticks

Extended Reversal to 0.012178 – 0917 (47 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike started on the PP Pivot, then crossed the 50 SMA and eclipsed the S1 Pivot to bottom for 16 ticks on the :35 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 0.012171 with 2 ticks of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 8 ticks on the :32 bar as it crossed the S1 Pivot. After trickling down for a few more ticks, the reversal retreated up to the 50 SMA for 11 ticks in 5 min. Then after a failed attempt at a 2nd Peak, it reversed later for another 6 ticks to reach the 200 SMA in another 37 min.

6J 12-12 (1 Min) 10.25.2012

Durable Goods Comments Off

May 232013

10/25/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.8%
Core Actual: 2.0%
Previous revision: -0.5% to -2.1%
Regular Forecast: 7.1%
Regular Actual: 9.9%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to -13.1%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 0.012476
1st Peak @ 0.012464 – 0831 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.012480 – 0833 (3 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.012452 – 0935 (65 min)
24 ticks

Reversal to 0.012469 – 1003 (93 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report came in positive overall. The more influential core reading came in 1.2% better than expected with a downward revision to the previous report. This correlated with a strong regular reading exceeding the forecast by a greater margin than the core difference. This resulted in a short move of 12 ticks that hit the S4 Pivot and extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short with 1 tick of slippage at 0.012471. Then look to exit with a handful of ticks after it bounced off of the S4 pivot it is unlikely to attempt that again being a strong level of support. It quickly reversed for 16 ticks in only 2 bars back to the 50 SMA. Then it trended mildly lower, riding the 50 SMA to eventually seek a 2nd peak 1 hr after the report for another 12 ticks. Then it reversed for 17 ticks in about 30 min.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.10.2013

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

May 212013

5/10/2013 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0930 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 94.20
1st Peak @ 94.09 – 0932 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 94.44 – 0950 (20 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 93.37 – 1054 (84 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 94.08 – 1115 (105 min)
71 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke before the Federal Reserve Bank’s 49th annual conference on Bank Structure and Competition in Chicago. He discussed and defended the FED policies in monitoring the financial system. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 94.15 with no slippage on the :31 bar. Then it fell for only 11 ticks as the :31-:33 bars found support at 94.09. With the market having trended lower about 70 ticks in the previous 30 min and near the LOD, be wary of hanging around for a larger short move. After all 3 bars could not penetrate 94.09 and the LOD was looming only 8 ticks lower, look to exit at about breakeven on or around the 20 SMA. After the peak, we saw a reversal of 35 ticks in 20 min. After it collided with the 100 SMA, it fell again for a 2nd peak of 83 ticks in the next hr. Then it reversed for 71 ticks in about 20 min to nearly reach the 200 SMA.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.15.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 212013

5/15/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.6M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.62
1st Peak @ 92.30 – 1031 (1 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 92.79 – 1034 (4 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 92.13 – 1044 (14 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 94.24 – 1217 (107 min)
211 ticks

Notes: Small draw in crude inventories when a small gain was expected, while gasoline saw a medium draw and distillates saw a medium draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. With the small change in crude, and the large inventory, the gains in the cracks drove the short move of 32 ticks in 1 min that eclipsed the S3 Mid. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 92.49 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 92.34 on the S3 Mid Pivot for 15 ticks. The :31 and :32 bars would have filled your order before it reversed for 49 ticks on the next 2 bars to eclipse the 50 SMA. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 17 more ticks 10 min after the reversal. Then it fanned upward for a strong reversal of 211 ticks in the next 90 min riding the 13 up until it surpassed the S1 Mid Pivot. It is unclear if the long reversal was due to the waning influence of the report or other market conditions.

Older Entries Newer Entries