Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.2.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 042013

4/2/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.00B
Actual: -0.18B
Previous Revision: -0.16B to -1.22B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0392
1st Peak @ 1.0409 – 2034 (4 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0392 – 2126 (56 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded expectations, but was offset by a moderate downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 17 tick long spike that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin, extending the HOD to peak on the :34 bar. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 1.0398 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get up to 10 ticks if you were patient and exited at about 1.0408 where the R1 mid Pivot was eclipsed. After the initial spike, it reversed slowly to the 50 SMA, then attempted a 2nd peak, but could not go any higher than 1.0408 before falling for the reversal back to the level of the origin 15 min later. After that volume dried up and it traded sideways.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.6.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 042013

3/6/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.51B
Actual: -1.06B
Previous Revision: -0.26B to -0.69B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0223
1st Peak @ 1.0212 – 1932 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 1.0239 – 2115 (45 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed and was aided by a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 11 tick initial short spike with a quick pop on the :31 bar that crossed the 50/100 SMAs near the origin, then found support at the LOD, while extending it 2 ticks. With JOBB your order would have filled short at about 1.0218 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get a handful of ticks if you were patient and exited near the LOD on the :31-:38 bars. After the initial spike, it reversed slowly to the SMAs, then after several minutes continued up to extend the HOD by 11 ticks as the entire reversal took about 45 min

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.4.2013

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 042013

2/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: -0.81B
Actual: -0.43B
Previous Revision: -0.15B to -2.79B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0409
1st Peak @ 1.0425 – 1931 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0426 – 1945 (15 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0409 – 2001 (31 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Report moderately impressed but was offset by a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a 16 tick initial spike with a quick pop on the :31 bar that crossed no SMAs, but hit a barrier at the R2 Pivot, pulling back and leaving 9 ticks on the bar wick naked. With JOBB your order would have filled long at about 1.0416 with 3 ticks of slippage, then you would have been able to get up to 9 ticks depending on your patience as it headed to the R2 Pivot on a 2nd peak 15 min after the report. After the 2nd peak, the reversal took over and pulled it down back to the origin as it fought through the 50 SMA then eclipsed the 100 SMA.

6A 12-12 (1 Min) 11.4.2012

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042013

11/4/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1430 HI time / 1930 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.5%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0310
1st Peak @ 1.0327 – 1431 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.0312 – 1437 (7 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0333 – 1541 (71 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 1.0320 – 1719 (169 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast, with a small upward previous report revision. This caused a long spike of 17 ticks that peaked on the :31 bar, but could not sustain most of the spike due to crossing the PP Pivot and the narrow result offset from the forecast. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 1.0316 with 1 tick of slippage, then look to exit at the PP Pivot at 1.0325 for 9 ticks. After the initial peak, it reversed nearly all of the spike before chopping sideways for the next hour. Then as the SMAs were rising, it bounced off of the 100 SMA long to achieve a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks 71 min after the report. Then it reversed for only 13 ticks to the 200 SMA about 90 min later.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.3.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042013

4/3/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (2030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 1.3%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 1.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0403
1st Peak @ 1.0436 – 2031 (1 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.0413 – 2204 (94 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a healthy upward previous report revision of 0.3%. This caused a 33 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the No SMAs and the PP/R1 Pivots. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0411 with 4 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 20 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak above the R1 Pivot. This was such a strong report that we saw higher than normal slippage and a change in the trading range of the market. Hence the reversal was smaller than the spike and painstakingly slow to develop. It took over 90 min to reclaim 23 ticks as it crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs then eclipsed the PP Pivot, but 15 ticks were surrendered by the :03 bar.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 3.4.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042013

3/4/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.9%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to -0.4%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0190
1st Peak @ 1.0212 – 1931 (1 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0215 – 1937 (7 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0196 – 1948 (18 min)
19 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast, with a moderate downward previous report revision of -0.2%. This caused a 22 tick long spike in 1 min that crossed the 50 SMA and the R1 Pivot, while using the 100 SMA as support to spring the long move. With JOBB you would have filled long at 1.0200 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 8-10 ticks with ease as the :01 bar was near its peak. After a small retracement, it achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :07 bar. Then the long term overbought sentiment took over and the lasting rally to cause a quick and fairly sharp reversal of 19 ticks in 11 min. After that it rode the 50 slightly higher, then reversed for a decent correction.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 2.5.2013

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 042013

2/5/2013 Monthly Retail Sales (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0365
1st Peak @ 1.0336 – 1931 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0314 – 2014 (44 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 1.0328 – 2022 (52 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with a downward previous report revision of -0.1%. This caused a 29 tick short spike in 1 min that crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin along with the S1 Pivot, bottoming out between the S1 Pivot and the S2 Pivot. With JOBB you would have filled short at 1.0355 with 5 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 15 ticks with ease at the 1.0340 area. Due to the disappointing news and the long term bearish sentiment on the 6AS, it continued lower for a 2nd peak of 22 more ticks 44 min later, eclipsing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 14 ticks back up to the near the 50 SMA 8 min later. After that it fell and traded sideways just above the S2 Pivot. This report had a similar negative result (0.4 worse than expected) as the last 2 months, and had a slightly larger negative reaction.

6A 06-13 (1 Min) 4.23.2013

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Apr 292013

4/23/2013 Quarterly CPI (2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.7%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0235
1st Peak@ 1.0196 – 2131 (1 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 1.0217 – 2134 (4 min)
21 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0193 – 2151 (21 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 1.0209 – 2158 (28 min)
17 ticks

Notes: This report was moderately negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 39 ticks that was slightly unsustainable as it left 9 ticks on the tail naked. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs near the origin and nearly reached the S1 Pivot while extending the LOD by 21 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0224 with 4 ticks of slippage. You would have seen it drop all the way to 1.0200 quickly and then chop sideways between 1.0200 and 1.0215 for the majority of the :31 bar, then a final drop to 1.0196 and rebound to 1.0205 as the bar expired. Look to exit at about 1.0202 at the S1 Mid Pivot for about 20 ticks. After the 1st peak, we saw a quick and large reversal of 21 ticks in 3 bars that could not quite reach the 13 SMA. Then it fell again for a 2nd Peak of 3 more ticks on the :51 bar, before reversing for 17 ticks to nearly reach the PP Pivot 7 min later. Then it chopped sideways between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot.

6A 03-13 (1 Min) 1.22.2013

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Apr 292013

1/22/2013 Quarterly CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0516
1st Peak@ 1.0491 – 1931 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0517 – 1945 (15 min)
26 ticks

Notes: This report was mildly negative, resulting in a quick short spike of 25 ticks, followed by a retracement of 17 ticks as it was unable to sustain the drop. Extending the LOD, and crossing the S1 / S2 Pivots was too much to hold, so it bounced up strongly. This is a report we may want to watch to use a profit trigger. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 1.0508 with 1 tick of slippage. You would have seen the dramatic drop and rebound. I would look to get a few ticks, and move the stop loss down to 1.0511, just above the S1 Pivot (3 ticks risk). You would have been able to close between 1.0502 and 1.0506 for 2-6 ticks. The reversal was able to reclaim 26 ticks from the bottom of the :31 bar, and 16 ticks from the :41 bar in 30 min, crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs. After that it fell again and traded below the S2 for several hours

6A 03 13 (2 Range) 01.16.13

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Jan 162013

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