Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 10.10.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Oct 102012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.03.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Oct 032012

10/3/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0155
1st Peak @ 1.0140 / Reverse to 1.0162 – 1531 (1 min)
-15 ticks / 7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0121 – 1558 (28 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 1.0158 – 1701 (91 min)
37 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast, with no previous report revision. AUS Building Approvals broke at the same time, mildly exceeding the forecast. The offsetting reports caused indecision on the intial reaction, as it spiked 15 ticks short crossing the PP Pivot, then reversed long crossing the 50 SMA for 22 ticks in 4 sec. This would have hit your stop loss before you could act and yielded a 15 tick loss. This is the first Retail Sales report to be released at the same time as a non traded red report. In the future this will be cause to sit this one out. After the :32 bar, the negative retail sales report influence took over and the market shorted 34 ticks in about 25 min for the 2nd peak at the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 37 ticks just above the 200 SMA about 1 hr later.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.02.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Oct 022012

10/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.69B
Actual: -2.03B
Previous Revision: -0.97B to -1.53B
Spike WITH 2nd peak
Started @ 1.0178
1st Peak @ 1.0163 – 1531 (1 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0157 – 1536 (6 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 1.0172 – 1615 (45 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast, with a large downward previous report revision. This caused a relatively big and fast short spike for 15 ticks that would have filled your short JOBB entry at about 1.0172 with 1 tick of slippage, allowing for about 8 ticks to be captured as the bar settled at the maximum low just below the S1 Pivot. It then claimed 6 more ticks on the 2nd peak 5 min later before reversing for 15 ticks in the next 40 min as volume dried up. The S1 pivot acting as support and the mild bearish sentiment before the market likely prevented a bigger drop, but it was still a great breakout for JOBB.

6A 12 12 (2 Range) 10.01.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Oct 012012

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 10.01.12

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

Oct 012012

10/1/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.25%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0298
1st Peak @ 1.0236 – 1831 (1 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 1.0276 – 1834 (4 min)
40 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0233 – 1926 (56 min)
65 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0229 – 2013 (103 min)
69 ticks

Reverse to 1.0249 – 2033 (123 min)
20 ticks

Notes: With economic growth softening in Australia and abroad, and risks to the global outlook , the RBA decided to cut interest rates by 25 BP to the surprise of most. This caused a rather large short spike that dove over 60 ticks in 2 seconds. With the market trading mostly sideways before the news in a tight range, it was prime to react bearishly to the outcome. With JOBB you would have filled with about 14 ticks of slippage at 1.0277. Then you would have an opportunity to close out quickly with about 25 ticks. As the spike shot down quickly and crossed the S1 and S2 Pivots, it was unable to sustain its fall and retraced in the later part of the bar to leave 30 ticks on the tail naked. The initial reversal came back up to the S1 Pivot before falling again to a 2nd peak a few ticks lower. Then it claimed a few more ticks on the final peak before revering for 20 ticks 2 hrs after the report broke.

6A 12 12 (1 Min) 09.17.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Sep 172012

9/17/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0378
1st Peak @ 1.0353 – 1531 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.0403 – 1611 (41 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Healthy short spike for 25 ticks that was able to sustain most of its drop to the expiration of the :31 bar. The spike crossed the 50 SMA about 1/3 the way down its path and hit resistance just above the S1 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with 1-2 ticks of slippage at about 1.0371, then had an opportunity to close out at about 1.0355 where it hovered near the bottom for 16 ticks. The reversal was able to recover the drop fairly quickly hitting resistance on the 100 and 200 SMAs, then slowly climbing for another 20 ticks as it crossed the PP Pivot. It all the reversal snared 50 ticks in 41 min as volume was drying up.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 062012

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 09.05.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Sep 052012

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.05.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Sep 052012

9/5/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 5.1K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -8.8K
Previous Revision: -2.3K to 11.7K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1.0170
1st Peak @ 1.0157 / Reversal to 10188 – 1531 (1 min)
-13 ticks / 18 ticks

Reversal Peak @ 1.0219 – 1607 (37 min)
49 ticks

Pullback to 1.0205 – 1722 (112 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Conflicted report that fell short of the forecast on the # of jobs created with a moderate downward revision to the previous report, but exceeded the forecast on drop in the unemployment rate. This caused an indecisive reaction moving short first for 13 ticks, then reversing long for 31 ticks from the bottom to net 18. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.0161 with minimal ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen it reverse upward and hit your stop loss at the 6 sec mark, if you had not closed out sooner. The opportunity was there to exit with less of a loss, but you had to be quick. Then after the market digested the bulk of the news, it rallied for a nice gain of 49 ticks over 30 min later, followed by a small slow reversal of 14 ticks that took about 45 min. The initial drop penetrated the S1 Pivot, then rebounded to cross all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot just above the origin. After struggling in that area for 3 bars, it continued long, pausing at the R1 and R2 Pivots as measurable resistance slowed the ascent. The top peak did not have a noticeable area of resistance, but the reversal briefly eclipsed the R2 Pivot as support.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.04.12

Quarterly GDP Comments Off

Sep 042012

9/4/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.8%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: +0.1% to 1.4%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1.0198
1st Peak@ 1.0176 – 1531 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 1.0199 – 1536 (6 min)
23 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly negative offset with a small previous upward revision. This caused a relatively small and short lived spike of 22 ticks that left most of the tail naked then a matching reversal of 23 ticks realized 5 min later to wrap up the exposure of the report’s influence. The Initial spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin. It was able to penetrate the S2 Pivot, but found strong support there. The :32 bar tried unsuccessfully to go short and penetrate the S2 Pivot, then bounced upward into the reversal that reclaimed the entire drop in 3 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short with a few ticks of slippage at about 1.0188, then had an opportunity to close out with about 8 ticks at or above the S2 Pivot as it repeatedly tested that level in the first 15 seconds of the reaction

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