Australian Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 09.03.12

Sep 032012

9/3/2012 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (1830 HI time / 0030 EDT)
Forecast: 3.50%
Actual: 3.50%
UPWARD FAN
Started @ 1.0223
1st Peak @ 1.0243 – 1832 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0261 – 1851 (21 min)
38 ticks

Final Peak @ 1.0273 – 1944 (74 min)
50 ticks

Reverse to 1.0248 – 2127 (177 min)
25 ticks

Notes: With economic growth softening but still positive in the US, Europe, and China, the RBA decided to leave the cash rate unchanged. This matched most traders’ expectations and was the more likely outcome instead of another rate cut. With the market trading mostly sideways before the news, it was prime to react bullishly to the outcome. The market spiked long 18 ticks in 2 min, then chopped around a bit before a reaching a 2nd of peak of 36 ticks at 21 min after the release. Then it achieved another 12 ticks for 48 total at 74 min after the report broke. With JOBB you would have filled with minimal slippage at 1.0232. Then with patience, close out with a handful of ticks on the :32 bar. Since it only spiked for 8 ticks on the :31 bar, this is not really an HFT, but a tamer initial spike that will pan out slowly and deliberately. Decisive and small is better than choppy and chaotic. After the 2nd peak at 21 min, the volume dried up considerably as is took nearly an hour to achieve 12 more ticks. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, used the S1 Pivot as support and crossed the PP Pivot on its ascent. The 2nd peak eclipsed the R1 Pivot, and the Final Peak was able to punch through the R2 Pivot. The reversal fell for 25 ticks finding support just below the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 09.02.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Sep 022012

9/2/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.8%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.2%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0258
1st Peak @ 1.0226 – 1532 (2 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 1.0241 – 1603 (33 min)
15 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast, with a moderate upward previous report revision. This caused a 2 bar short spike of 32 ticks that was able to sustain its drop. The spike crossed the 100 and 50 SMAs near the origin and found support just below the S2 Pivot. The reversal only recovered 15 ticks in about 30 min. As this report broke on a Sunday evening, it was not recommended for trading. The light volume of trading is evident in the bar behavior before and after the report. If you had used JOBB, you would have likely seen an excess of 10 ticks of slippage and come away with only a few ticks as it fell quickly.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.20.12

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Aug 202012

8/20/2012 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0429
1st Peak @ 1.0424 – 1531 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reverse to 1.0458 – 1614 (44 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Small spike of only 5 ticks with a healthy reversal that played out slowly over 44 min. With JOBB, your order would not have filled, so cancel it after 10 sec. The initial drop hit strong support on the 200 SMA, then rebounded to settle into the reversal. The reversal managed to climb 2-3 ticks per bar and found marginal resistance at the R1 and R2 Pivots. With the 50 and 100 SMAs near the origin, no SMAs were crossed.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.09.12

RBA Monetary Policy Comments Off

Aug 092012

8/9/2012 Quarterly RBA Monetary Policy Statement (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 1.0536
1st Peak @ 1.0528 – 1534 (4 min)
8 ticks

Reverse to 1.0537 – 1540 (10 min)
9 ticks

Notes: No excitement on this report. Since the :31 bar only moved 6 ticks, your JOBB order would not have filled. With no fill in the first 10-15 seconds, cancel the order, but you would have been safe anyway. The volume was low and action was also stuck between the 3 major SMAs. The action could not go above the 200 SMA or below the area above the S1 Pivot, indicating nothing to drive the market.

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 08.08.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Aug 082012

8/8/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 10.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 14.0K
Previous Revision: -1.3K to -28.3K
Rate Forecast: 5.3%
Rate Actual: 5.2%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.0530
1st Peak @ 1.0558 – 1531 (1 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 1.0538 – 1532 (2 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.0566 – 1601 (31 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 1.0550 – 1617 (47 min)
16 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report that exceeded the forecast on jobs created and the unemployment rate with a small downward revision to the previous report caused a moderate long spike of 28 ticks. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 1.0544 with 5-6 ticks of slippage. After the fill you would have seen a quick pop to 1.0558 in 3 sec, a fall to 1.0535 1 sec later, then a rebound and hover between 1.0544 and 1.0548. Close out there with a handful of ticks. Without a major delta from the forecast, the smaller reaction is normal. All of the major SMAs were already below the trade action at the origin, so it only crossed the R1 Pivot on the spike, while the 2nd peak eclipsed the R2 Pivot. The reversal was only able to rebound for 16 ticks in 47 min, but the reversal between the peaks was slightly stronger at 20 ticks. For 2 hrs after the reversal, it traded sideways with low volume oscillating around the 50 SMA

6A 06 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Aug 082012

6/6/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: -2.2K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 38.9K
Previous Revision: -8.5K to 7.0K
Rate Forecast: 5.1%
Rate Actual: 5.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK (Premature spike – wrong direction)
Started @ 0.9887
Wrong Direction Spike – 0.9867 – 1530
20 ticks
1st Peak @ 0.9951 – 1531 (1 min)
64 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.9959 – 1559 (29 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 0.9932 – 1656 (86 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Very Strong positive report that exceeded the forecast with a sizeable downward revision to the previous strong report caused a healthy spike upward. Unfortunately the market jitters from the week caused a premature spike to ruin an otherwise normally reliable report. The 20 tick drop in the last 2-3 seconds of the :30 bar would have filled you short then you would be stopped out when it found its true direction long. The 1531 candle rose 64 ticks from the origin crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the R1 Pivot near the peak. The peak was achieved late in the candle at about 43 sec into the :31 bar, but most of the ascent was achieved in the first 10 sec. After a small pullback to the R1 Pivot, it sought out a 2nd peak gradually rising for another 9 ticks in 50 minutes. The reversal yielded 27 ticks about an hour after the 2nd peak dipping below the 100 SMA.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: -0.36B
Actual: 0.01B
Previous Revision: -0.02B to -0.31B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0434 – 1531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.0220 – 1551 (21 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a slight downward previous report revision. The AUS Retail Sales was also released coming in moderately better than expected. This caused a medium sized long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0424, allowing for about 8 ticks to be captured. The spike crossed the 200 SMA near the origin, then peaked just below the PP Pivot. The reversal came back to the 50 and 200 SMAs at 1.0420, before rebounding upward.

6A 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (1530 HI time / 2130 EDT)
Forecast: 0.6%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: +0.3% to 0.8%
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 1.0415
1st Peak @ 1.0434 – 1531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.0220 – 1551 (21 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast, with a moderate upward previous report revision. The AUS Trade Balance was also released coming in slightly better than expected. This caused a medium sized long spike that would have filled your long JOBB entry at about 1.0424, allowing for about 8 ticks to be captured. The spike crossed the 200 SMA near the origin, then peaked just below the PP Pivot. The reversal came back to the 50 and 200 SMAs at 1.0420, before rebounding upward.

6A 09 12 (2 Range) 07.24.12

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Jul 242012

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