Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

HG 03-16 (1 Min) 1.31.2016

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 192016

HG 03-16 (1 Min) 1_31_2016

1/31/2016 CNY Caixin Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 48.1
Actual: 48.4
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.0420
1st Peak @ 2.0450 – 2046:12 (2 min)
6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.0465 – 2051 (6 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 2.0410 – 2057 (12 min)
11 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.0435 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.0460 – 5 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.0480 (just above the S2 Pivot)

Notes: Small, but stable reaction for a handful of ticks with patience. Then a reversal of 11 ticks.

HG 03-16 (1 Min) 1.31.2016

Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Feb 192016

HG 03-16 (1 Min) 1_31_2016

1/31/2016 CNY Manufacturing PMI (2000 EST)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 49.4
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL FILL
Started @ 2.0610
1st Peak @ 2.0630 – 2000:09 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 2.0595 – 2003 (3 min)
7 ticks

Continued Reversal to 2.0400 – 2035 (35 min)
46 ticks

Expected Fill: 2.0625
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.0625 – Breakeven
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.660 – on the HOD

Notes: Narrow offset caused a small 4 tick spike to barely fill the order then hover on the fill point for 18 sec. Exit the order at breakeven especially due to the presence of all the SMAs, the OOD, and the PP Pivot. After that it reversed and fell 46 ticks in the next 35 min to the S3 Mid Pivot.

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1.29.2016

(Core) CPI Flash Estimate Comments Off

Feb 182016

6E 03-16 (1 Min) 1_29_2016

1/29/2016 EUR CPI Flash Estimate (0500 EST)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous Revision: n/a
Core CPI Flash Estimate
Forecast: 0.9%
Actual: 1.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.0916
1st Bar span 1.0919 to 1.0911 – 0500:25 (1 min)
+3 / -5 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Cancel the order as it did not move 5 ticks from the origin until 25 sec after the release.

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1.26.2016

Quarterly CPI Comments Off

Feb 182016

6A 03-16 (1 Min) 1_26_2016

1/26/2016 Quarterly CPI / Trimmed Mean CPI (1930 EST)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: 0.4%
Forecast: 0.5%
Actual: 0.6%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.6982
1st Peak@ 0.7023 – 1931:38 (2 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7015 – 1935 (5 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.7026 – 1942 (12 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 0.7016 – 1949 (19 min)
10 ticks

Double Top @ 0.7026 – 2007 (37 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.7003 – 2035 (65 min)
23 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.6995 (long)
Slippage: 6 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.7022 – 27 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7020 (just above the R1 Pivot)

Notes: Moderately bullish report, be patient and wait for the :32 bar to exit and expect it to eclipse the R1 Pivot. It achieved a minor 2nd peak, then double top before a bigger reversal.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 282014

Caption for 2/12:
2/12/2014 10-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.01/2.7
Actual: 2.80/2.5
DULL REACTION (No Fill)
Started @ 132’06 (1301)
Only 1 tick of movement through the 1304 bar.

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell back below 3.00 to be more consistent with the range of the last 6 months. This caused the ZB to yawn with no impulse as the 50 and 100 SMAs kept it reigned in from the top. Fortunately with JOBB, you would not have filled with a 2 tick bracket, so cancel the order. After a small 2 tick bump long that could not escape the 100 SMA, it fell 6 ticks to the S2 Pivot and LOD.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Feb 282014

2/13/2014 30-yr Bond Auction (1301 EST)
Previous: 3.90/2.6
Actual: 3.69/2.3
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 133’00 (1301)
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1302 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 133’00 – 1305 (4 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield fell quite a bit from the last auction and consistent with the 10-y auction the day before. The bid to cover ratio was quite a bit lower signaling lower demand. This caused the bonds to rally for 7 ticks as it only crossed the HOD. It was briefly sustained and left 4 ticks on the wick naked. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’03 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to capture only about 1-3 ticks as it did not linger at the top for more than 3 sec. Then it reversed quickly to the origin in the next 3 min. After that it attempted to rally and was only able to climb within 1 tick of the 1st peak and trade sideways.

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1.12.2016

Grain Stocks, WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jan 152016

ZC 03-16 (1 Min) 1_12_2016

1/12/2016 Grain Stocks – Corn (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 349.75
1st Peak @ 363.75 – 1201:44 (2 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 353.00 – 1204 (4 min)
43 ticks

Pullback to 359.50 – 1207 (7 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 356.00 – 1209 (9 min)
14 ticks

Pullback to 359.75 – 1217 (86 min)
50 ticks

Expected Fill: 351.00 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 363.50 – 50 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 360.50 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Slow developing but stable long spike. It spent the first 50 sec unable to breach the R1 Pivot. This was unusual for a January Grain stocks. But then it climbed about 40 ticks in 55 sec to eclipse the R3 Pivot. With the big reversal, a long entry on or after the bounce off of the 13 SMA would have been prudent.

CL 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/12/2014 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EST)
Forecast: 2.65M
Actual: 3.27M
Gasoline
Forecast: -0.05M
Actual: -1.85M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.28M
Actual: -0.73M
DULL REACTION…SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.20
1st Peak @ 101.03 – 1031 (1 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 101.21 – 1032 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 100.85 – 1032 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 101.37 – 1046 (16 min)
52 ticks

Final Peak @ 100.64 – 1106 (36 min)
56 ticks

Reversal to 100.92 – 1114 (44 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventories when a lesser gain was expected, while gasoline saw a modest draw when a negligible draw was expected and distillates saw a modest draw when a moderate draw was expected. The first time in a month that the distillate inventory beat the forecast caused a muted reaction initially that ended up in a bearish move overall. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would not have seen an impulse to fill either side of the bracket until 36 sec into the :31 bar, so you should have cancelled the order. It eventually fell for 17 ticks as it finally broke through the R3 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed for 18 ticks before falling for 35 ticks to cross the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 52 ticks to reach the HOD before it fell for a final peak of 56 ticks, crossing the R2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in 8 min and chopped sideways before trending lower.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.12.2014

AUS Employment change Comments Off

Mar 012014

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2_12_2014

2/12/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (1930 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 15.3K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: -3.7K
Previous Revision: -0.4K to -23.0K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 6.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE…DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 0.8992
Premature spike@ 0.9023 – 1930:00 (1 Min)
31 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.8933 – 1931 (1 min)
90 ticks

Reversal to 0.8948 – 1932 (2 min)
15 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.8910 – 2101 (91 min)
113 ticks

Reversal to 0.8930 – 2213 (163 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Very negative report that fell short of the forecast on jobs created by nearly 19K while the unemployment rate also jumped 0.1%, with a negligible downward revision to the previous report caused a premature long spike followed by the true short move. The 14 tick spike that shot down, rebounded and fell again immediately about 8 sec before the report should have been cause to cancel the order. It was trading sideways near the 200 SMA before the early volatility drove it lower. With JOBB, if you did not cancel, your bracket would have setup with an anchor point at about 0.8992 on the S2 Mid Pivot. Your long entry would have filled at about 0.09008 with 8 ticks of slippage, then you would have been stopped at about 0.8984 with 4 ticks of slippage. It continued lower, crossing the S4 Mid Pivot for a total of 90 ticks from the top of the premature spike or 59 ticks from the origin. Then it reversed 15 ticks on the :32 bar, before continuing lower for a final peak of another 23 ticks in the next 90 min after crossing the S4 Pivot. Then it reversed for a meager 20 ticks in the next 72 min as the volume dried up. This is a case where you can easily make a 2nd peak trade for about 20-25 ticks with a sell limit on the :32 bar reversal after the bearish results are known. A target of the S4 Pivot would be prudent.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Mar 012014

Caption for 2/13:
2/13/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: -0.4% to 0.3%
Regular Forecast: 0.0%
Regular Actual: -0.4%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to -0.1%
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 132’27 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 2 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 132’24/23 (in the middle of SMAs & just below R2 Mid Pivot) / 132’19 (on R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 132’31 (on the R2 Pivot ) / 133’03 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with unemployment claims, so we used the Trap Trade approach. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the ZB failed to launch until the :32 bar. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 5 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, eclipsing the R2 Pivot, followed by a 4 tick reversal to the 13 SMA on the :36 bar. Then it rebounded for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks on the :37 bar. After that it reversed for 7 ticks, crossing the 50 SMA about 30 min later.

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