Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 012014

2/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 331K
Actual: 339K
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 0.009817 (last price and on the R3 Mid Pivot)
————
Trap Trade:
Dull Reaction with only 12 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009807 (below the 200 SMA) / 0.009798 (just below the R2 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009828 (no SMA/Pivot near) / 0.009836 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report was double booked with retail sales, so we used a slightly larger 1st tier of 10-12 ticks. Surprising, all readings were bearish, but the 6J failed to launch until the :32 bar with only 7 tick movement from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. The reaction came late for no apparent reason, but resulted in a 23 tick upward spike on the :32 bar, nearly reaching the R3 Pivot. Then it reversed for 23 ticks in the next 30 min back to the 100 SMA. Then it rebounded long, but was only able to achieve 2 ticks less than the 1st peak, before falling again.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 022014

2/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EST)
Forecast: 80.6
Actual: 81.2
TRAP TRADE (DULL – No Fill)
Anchor Point @ 0.0009827 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.009820 – 0955:47 (1 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.009824 – 0956:40 (2 min)
)))4 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.009818 – 0958 (3 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.009827 – 1005 (10 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009819 (match the low of 0938 bar) / 0.009812 (match the low of 0847)
Short entries – 0.009836 (on the R2 Mid Pivot ) / 0.009843 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in modestly higher than the forecast by 0.6 points causing a tame short impulse on the 6J for only 7 ticks as it crossed all 3 major SMAs. That would have fallen short of the inner long order, so cancel the order. It toyed with the 100/200 SMA on the :57 bar, then fell for 2 more ticks to match the 0938 low before reversing 9 ticks in the next 7 min. Overall dull report with little offset from the forecast.

6A 03-14 (1 Min) 2.17.2014

RBA Monetary Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 022014

2/17/2014 RBA Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (1930 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE
Started @ 0.9017 (last price and on the R1 Pivot)
—————-
Trap Trade:
)))1st peak @ 0.8998 – 1930:14 (1 min)
)))-19 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9010 – 1930:18 (1 min)
)))12 ticks

)))Double Bottom @ 0.8998 – 1930:41 (1 min)
)))-12 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.9020 – 1931:35 (2 min)
)))22 ticks
—————-
Continued Reversal to 0.9055 – 1932:27 (3 min)
57 ticks

Pullback to 0.9032 – 1936 (6 min)
23 ticks

Reversal to 0.9063 – 1950 (20 min)
31 ticks

Pullback to 0.9046 – 2000 (30 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 0.9065 – 2004 (34 min)
19 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.9007 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.8999 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.9027 (in between the HOD and R2 Pivot) / 0.9034 (just below the R3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Minutes caused a short reaction that fell about 20 ticks 14 sec into the :31 bar, then reversed back 12 in a head fake, fell to match the low, then reversed as expected for 22 ticks quickly and eventually 57 ticks. Due to the Cash Rate from 2 weeks ago causing a sizeable bullish reaction, we advised holding onto a long entry for a while to expect it to carry into a large move. Both of your long entries would have filled, with only a tick or 2 excess. Then it would have reversed allowing around 40 or so ticks to be captured easily on the :33 bar. above the R3 Pivot. After that it kept stepping higher, then retreating 2 more times to eventually reach 0.9065 above the R4 Pivot.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.18.2014

German Zew Economic Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 032014

2/18/2014 German ZEW Economic Sentiment (0500 EST)
Forecast: 61.3
Actual: 55.7
TRAP TRADE (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 1.3724 (last price and recent avg)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 1.3710 – 0500:05 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Reversal to 1.3721 – 0501:38 (2 min)
)))11 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 1.3707 – 0516 (16 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.3735 – 0614 (74 min)
28 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 1.3714 (below the R2 Mid Pivot) / 1.3707 (just below the R1 Pivot)
Short entries – 1.3732 (just above the R3 Mid Pivot) / 1.3741 (just above the R3 Pivot)

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast by 5.6 points. This caused a short move of 14 ticks initially that crossed all 3 major SMAs and nearly reached the R1 Pivot, then a reversal of 11 ticks back to the R2 Pivot and 20 SMA. This was a good setup of the Trap Trade. The inner long entry would have filled with 4 ticks to spare. You would have seen 4 ticks of heat followed by a quick reversal on the :02 bar that gave back 11 ticks to the R2 Pivot. The reversal normally takes longer to pan out, but also does not rebound for as many ticks, so it would be wise to get out above the 50 SMA with about 6 ticks. If you waited a few more bars, then look to exit at about 1.3718 with 4 ticks due to the large offset of the result and the 50 SMA holding as resistance. It achieved a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed for 28 ticks in the next hour, crossing the R3 Mid Pivot.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

French Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 082014

2/20/2014 French Flash Manufacturing PMI (0300 EST)
Forecast: 49.6
Actual: 48.5
Previous Revision: +0.5 to 49.3
Services PMI
Forecast: 49.5
Actual: 46.9
Previous Revision: +0.3 to 48.9
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.3732 (0258)
1st Peak @ 1.3706 – 0259 (1 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 1.3717 – 0303 (5 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.3699 – 0324 (26 min)
33 ticks

Reversal to 1.3707 – 0328 (30 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0258. The manufacturing reading came in 1.1 points below the forecast to disappoint with a modest upward revision on the previous report, and the simultaneous Services reading came in 2.6 points below the forecast with a negligible upward revision. All of this served to cause a healthy short spike of 26 ticks on the :59 bar that started just underneath the S1 Mid Pivot and 13 SMA then crossed the S2 Mid Pivot and almost reached the S2 Pivot while extended the LOD. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3714 with abnormally high 15 ticks of slippage then seen it hover between 3 ticks of heat and 7 ticks of profit for the rest of the bar. After the opening few seconds, move the profit target to about 1.3708 after seeing it hit the 1.3706 area several times without penetrating. After the reversal achieved an 11 tick rebound in the next 4 bars back to the S2 Mid Pivot, it fell for a 2nd peak of 7 more ticks 20 min later, crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it pulled back for 8 ticks just before the German report release.

6E 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.14

German Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 082014

2/20/2014 German Flash Manufacturing PMI (0330 EST)
Forecast: 56.4
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: +0.2 to 56.5
Services PMI
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 55.4
Previous Revision: -0.5 to 53.1
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 1.3705 (0328)
1st Peak @ 1.3680 – 0329 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1.3709 – 0345 (17 min)
29 ticks

Notes: Report breaks 2 min early at 0328. The manufacturing reading came in 1.7 points below the forecast to disappoint with a negligible upward revision on the previous report while the services reading came in 2.0 points above the forecast with a modest downward previous report revision to cause a healthy spike that was unsustainable due the conflicted results. This resulted in a 25 tick short move as the manufacturing reading dominated that started on the S2 Pivot and fell to cross the S3 Mid Pivot on the :29 bar. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 1.3700 with 2 ticks of slippage, then a target of up to 19 ticks would filled instantly. After it fell to 1.3680, it retreated to hover in between 1.3685 and 1.3690 before retreating further 17 sec into the bar. This is a case where you have the S3 Mid Pivot at 1.3684 and conflicting news, so move the profit target to about 1.3687 if not filled already to exit with about 13 ticks. After the :29 bar, it continued to slowly pullback long for the next 16 min to the 50 SMA for a total of 29 ticks. After that it fell in a failed attempt at a 2nd peak for only 15 ticks, hitting a low as the EURO-zone readings came in disappointing.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.19.2014

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/19/2014 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 133’05
1st Peak @ 133’10 – 1401 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1403 (3 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Now that the FED is a few meetings into scaling back QE3, and the mystery is gone, the reactions are getting smaller. The minutes basically stated that we had both good and bad economic news, but nothing to cause the FED to deviate from the pace. This stance seems to be fairly rigid with little events able to meet the threshold of a deviation. This caused the bonds to rally only 5 ticks, as the minutes were unsurprising, followed by a 13 tick reversal that happened quickly. With JOBB you would have filled long at 133’07 with no slippage 11 sec into the :01 bar. On non statistical news like this, that is normal. It would have popped up and hit the PP Pivot / 50 SMA after 19 sec, then started to retreat. If you were quick, you would have been able to exit with 1-2 ticks after 5 sec. Otherwise, look to move the stop up to 2 ticks and get out there. After the peak, it fell 13 ticks from the back end of the :01 bar to the :03 bar, crossing the S1 Pivot. After that, it pulled back to the S1 Mid Pivot, then fell to trade sideways on the S1 Pivot. Due to the changing trend and low probability of the FED to rock the boat, we will shift this and the FOMC statement reports to the Trap Trade approach in the near short term.

ZB 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 9.2
Actual: -6.3
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 132’30
1st Peak @ 133’07 – 1001 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 132’29 – 1005 (5 min)
10 ticks

Extended Reversal to 132’15 – 1043 (43 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast with a delta of 15.5 pts, causing a long spike on the ZB that started in between the 100 and 200 SMAs, crossed the 200 SMA and nearly reached the PP Pivot before retreating. With JOBB, your order would have filled long at about 133’00 with no slippage then immediately shot up to the PP Pivot and hovered. As it hovered for about 18 sec between 133’04 and 133’07, it would have given ample opportunity to exit with 4-6 ticks. Unfortunately the move was not sustained and retreated on the back end of the :01 bar. It reversed for 10 ticks in 4 min, pulled back briefly to hit the 200 SMA, then fell further for another 14 ticks in the next 38 min, crossing the S1 Pivot.

6J 03-14 (1 Min) 2.20.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/20/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 335K
Actual: 336K
TRAP TRADE (DULL REACTION)
Anchor Point @ 0.009803 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))Dull Reaction with only 6 ticks span of movement on the :31 bar
————

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.009795 (match the low of the 0807 bar) / 0.009785 (just below the PP Pivot)
Short entries – 0.009812 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.009822 (no SMA/Pivot near)

Notes: Report was double booked with Core and regular CPI, but all reports matched the forecast. This caused a dull reaction of only 4 ticks departure from the anchor point. With no impulse to fill either side of the Trap bracket, cancel the order after 20 sec. After the tame :31 bar, it fell about 12 ticks in the next 5 min, then rebounded to the R1 Mid Pivot/50 SMA before falling again to the OOD about 35 min after the report.

HG 03-14 (1 Min) 2.19.2014

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 092014

2/19/2014 CNY HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI (2045 EST)
Forecast: 49.4
Actual: 48.5
Previous Revision: -0.1 to 49.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.2840
1st Peak @ 3.2735 – 2045:00 (1 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 3.2815 – 2045:23 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.2655 – 2059 (14 min)
37 ticks

Reversal to 3.2700 – 2108 (23 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report disappointed the traders, with a negligible previous report downward revision. This caused a short spike of 21 ticks that started on the 50 SMA and just above the S1 Mid Pivot, crossed the 100 and 200 SMAs, then hit the OOD and nearly reached the S2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 3.2770 with about abnormally high 11 ticks of slippage. As it fell quickly through several strong support barriers, it retreated quickly and substantially for 16 ticks in 23 sec. This would have see up to 9 ticks of heat unless you had a slightly worse fill it would have stopped you out. It then fell to hover around -4 ticks in the latter part of the bar between the S1 Pivot and the 200 SMA. You could exit with about 2-4 ticks loss or wait for the following 2nd peak which is strongly likely on this report, and with the larger bearish offset on the result. It fell for another 16 ticks below the OOD in the next 13 min, crossing the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed for 9 ticks back to the S2 Pivot and 13 SMA.

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