Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016

CAN Employment Change Comments Off

May 022016

6C 06-16 (1 Min) 4_8_2016

4/8/2016 Employment Change (0830 EDT)
Employment Change Forecast: 10.4K
Employment Change Actual: 40.6K
Previous Revision: n/a
Rate Forecast: 7.3%
Rate Actual: 7.1%
SPIKE / REVERSE (TRIGGER TO CANCEL)
Started @ 0.7653
1st peak @ 0.7694 – 0830:08 (1 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 0.7673 – 0831:00 (2 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 0.7695 – 0841 (11 min)
42 ticks

Reversal to 0.7682 – 0848 (18 min)
13 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Premature spike at 0829:46 would have disqualified the trade as it climbed 15 ticks and collapsed. Then it was frenetic in the ascent after the news and surrendered half of the spike immediately. The only opening hear is a buy on a potential 2nd peak at the .7675 area as it found support. Then look to capture 15 – 20 ticks as you evaluate how it handles the R3 Mid Pivot.

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4.6.2016

FOMC Meeting Minutes Comments Off

May 022016

ZB 06-16 (1 Min) 4_6_2016

4/6/2016 FOMC Meeting Minutes (1400 EDT)
Previous: n/a
Actual: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 165’06
————
Trap Trade:
)))No move – 1401 (1 min)
)))2 ticks
————
1st Peak @ 165’12 – 1403 (3 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 165’08 – 1405 (5 min)
3 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 165’01 (just above the LOD) / 164’29 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 165’10 (just above the 200 SMA) / 165’14 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Dull move so cancel after 1 min.

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

May 012016

6J 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.1
Actual: 54.5
Previous Revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 0.0090625
Head Fake @ 0.0090645 – 1000:07 (1 min)
4 ticks

1st Peak @ 0.0090490 – 1001:17 (2 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.0090620 – 1015 (15 min)
26 ticks

Expected Fill: 0.0090640 (long)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 0.0090620 – 4 tick loss
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Strange reaction as we saw a slow mild head fake in the long (wrong) direction. Be wary with this situation as you are seeing a long fill with the results and hovering on the fill point. Either exit quickly or move the stop to a very tight spot. After 30 sec it started to trickle short and gained momentum to achieve 27 ticks in 47 sec. Then a reversal back to the SMAs in 13 min.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

Cash Rate / RBA Statement Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016 6A 06-16 (Second) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 RBA Rate Statement / Cash Rate (0030 EDT)
Forecast: 2.00% (no change)
Actual: 2.00% (no change)
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor point @ 0.7567
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7546 – 0030:40 (1 min)
)))-21 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7582 – 0031:43 (2 min)
)))36 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.7571 – 0033 (3 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.7612 – 0035 (5 min)
41 ticks

Pullback to 0.7562 – 0112 (42 min)
50 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7547 (just above the S2 Pivot) / 0.7533 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7587 (just above the HOD) / 0.7602 (just below the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: n/a – 0.7547 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7581 – 34 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7567 (just above the S1 Pivot) and 0.7581 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Perfect trap trade setup with the settings. An inner tier of 0.7547 or higher would have filled. If you set it for 0.7546 and saw a near miss, there was plenty of opportunity to manually move it up about 3 ticks for a fill. Then it reversed nicely to the S1 Mid Pivot and continued to step higher in the next 3 min to the R1 Pivot. After that it collapsed slowly over 37 min for 50 ticks to the 200 SMA.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

Monthly Trade Balance Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Trade Balance (2130 EDT)
Forecast: -2.55B
Actual: -3.41B
Previous Revision: -0.22B to -3.16B
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7572
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7558 – 2130:31 (1 min)
)))-14 ticks

)))Hovering around 0.7559 for 2 min
————
2nd Peak @ 0.7545 – 2205 (35 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 0.7554 – 2216 (46 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7564 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.7558 (in between the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.7580 (on the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.7586 (just above the HOD)

Expected Fill: 0.7564 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7561 – 3 tick loss (likely exit 0.7559 – 5 tick loss)
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Biased result and strong bearish revision caused a decisive short spike that fell to the LOD / S2 Mid Pivot area, then got stuck. As the market volatility died, look to exit with a 3-5 tick loss. The outer tier would have been too large by a tick or so for a fill. After 25 min, it fell for a 2nd peak of 13 more ticks to the S2 Pivot before reversing 9 ticks.

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4.3.2016

Building Approvals, Monthly Retail Sales Comments Off

May 012016

6A 06-16 (1 Min) 4_3_2016

4/3/2016 Monthly Retail Sales (2130 EDT)
Rtl Sales
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – DULL FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.7648
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.7630 – 2130:12 (1 min)
)))-18 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.7638 – 2130:15 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.7628 – 2130:48 (1 min)
)))-10 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.7634 – 2132 (32 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.7612 – 2147 (17 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 0.7623 – 2153 (23 min)
11 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.7636 (just above the LOD) / 0.7627 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.7659 (in between the R1 Mid Pivot / HOD) / 0.7668 (above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Expected Fill: 0.7636 – inner long tier
Best Initial Exit: 0.7636 – breakeven (0.7634 likely worst case)
Recommended Profit Target placement: 0.7642 – in the middle of the 3 major SMAs

Notes: Strongly bearish Rtl sales results overshadowed the mildly bullish Bldg Approvals to cause a decisive short spike with minimal inclination to reverse. This would have been a dull fill as it would have hovered on your fill point for about 20 sec in the middle of the :31 bar then the PP Pivot held it up for a while before it sought a 2nd peak and fell another 16 ticks.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.8.2016

GBP Manufacturing Production Comments Off

Apr 262016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_8_2016

4/8/2016 Monthly Manufacturing PMI (0430 EST)
Forecast: -0.2%
Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.3%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4126
1st Peak @ 1.4109 – 0431:11 (2 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4120 – 0434 (4 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4095 – 0442 (12 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4121 (short)
Slippage: 1 tick
Best Initial Exit: 1.4110 – 11 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4103 (just below the R1 Pivot) – move higher

Notes: Nice short spike fell 17 ticks in a little over a minute to give a low slippage fill and allow up to 11 ticks to be captured. Then a small reversal followed by a 2nd peak of 14 more ticks to nearly reach the R1 Mid Pivot.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.5.2016

GBP Services PMI Comments Off

Apr 262016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_5_2016

4/5/2016 GBP Services PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 53.9
Actual: 53.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.4223
1st Peak @ 1.4211 – 0430:30 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 1.4218 – 0430:54 (1 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4206 – 0433 (3 min)
17 ticks

Reversal to 1.4237 – 0449 (19 min)
31 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.4219 (short)
Slippage: 0 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 1.4212 – 7 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 1.4210 (in between the LOD and S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Matching report caused a smaller move, but offered a zero slippage fill and up to 7 ticks initially. It found support at the LOD, then reversed and fell for a 2nd peak of 5 more ticks 2 min later to the S3 Mid Pivot. Then a nice reversal in the next 16 min to the S2 Pivot / 200 SMA.

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4.4.2016

GBP Construction PMI Comments Off

Apr 262016

6B 06-16 (1 Min) 4_4_2016

4/4/2016 Monthly Construction PMI (0430 EDT)
Forecast: 54.3
Actual: 54.2
DULL NO FILL
Started @ 1.4215
1st Peak @ 1.4219 – 0430:18 (1 min)
4 ticks

Reversal to 1.4210 – 0431:32 (2 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1.4234 – 0436 (6 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 1.4193 – 0455 (25 min)
41 ticks

Expected Fill: n/a – cancel
Slippage: n/a
Best Initial Exit: n/a
Recommended Profit Target placement: n/a

Notes: Matching report caused a dull move of only 4 ticks in 18 sec. Cancel the trade with these conditions. It did achieve a decent 2nd peak, but it is not advisable to seek a trade on this as the results are not likely the cause and it was unexpected. The reversal after the 2nd peak could have been traded after seeing the price action around 0440 and the 13 SMA turn down.

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4.14.2016

NG Storage Comments Off

Apr 262016

NG 05-16 (1 Min) 4_14_2016

4/14/2016 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1B
Actual: -3B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1.980
1st Peak @ 2.007 – 1030:02 (1 min)
27 ticks

Reversal to 1.991 – 1030:17 (1 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.020 – 1031:39 (2 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 1.999 – 1039 (9 min)
21 ticks

Pullback to 2.017 – 1047 (17 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 1.974 – 1122 (52 min)
43 ticks

Expected Fill: 1.994 (long)
Slippage: 4 ticks
Best Initial Exit: 2.019 – 25 ticks
Recommended Profit Target placement: 2.009 (just above the S1 Pivot)

Notes: Stable long spike initially crossed the 200 SMA / S1 Pivot, backed off a bit and then rebounded for a quick 2nd peak to the S1 Mid Pivot. This would have seen a low slippage fill and allowed up to 25 ticks to be captured, but a prudent target would have captured about 15 ticks with the resistance levels. Then it stepped lower to nearly reach the LOD in a little less than 1 hr.

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