Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 06.13.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 132012

6/13/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.6M
Actual: -0.2M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.12
1st Peak @ 83.56 – 0432 (2 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.01 – 0441 (11 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 83.40 – 0505 (35 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected drop in supply caused a strong and safe spike and 2nd peak. With the market rallying from a intraday low earlier due to the very bearish retail sales report, all the SMAs were below the price action and the market crossed the PP Pivot near the origin, then briefly climbed above the R1 Pivot on the 2nd peak for an impressive 89 ticks before the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks 24 min after the 2nd peak.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.06.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jun 132012

6/6/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.1M
Actual: -0.1M
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 86.00
1st Peak @ 85.56 – 0432 (2 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 86.17 – 0447 (17 min)
61 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected loss in supply and offset of the forecast caused a decisive drop for 44 ticks. After looking at the internals of the report, the Cushing inventories grew more than expected, causing the drop. With JOBB you would have filled short at about 85.86 and had an opportunity for at least 15 ticks. The spike crossed the 50 SMA about halfway down the path of the :31 bar then the R2 Pivot on the :32 bar. After bottoming out 15 ticks lower than the R2 Pivot, the reversal reclaimed 61 ticks.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 06.12.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Jun 122012

6/12/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 563.50 – 0229
1st Peak @ 575.00 – 0231 (2 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 551.50 – 0234 (5 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a medium long spike of 46 ticks over 2 min, crossing all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot, and peaking on the R1 Pivot. Prior to the report, the market had been trending slightly downward, but still in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 27 ticks before the LOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 565.50 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 25 ticks as it hovered between 571 and 574. It reversed for 94 ticks in the next 3 min, bottoming 21 ticks below the S2 Pivot . After that it bounced up to the 200 SMA, then remained confined between the S1 Pivot and the 200 SMA.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.08.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Jun 082012

6/8/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -49.4B
Actual: -50.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -47.1B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 82.34
1st Peak @ 82.22 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks (2x bottom)

Reverse to 82.63 – 0235 (5 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast, with a small previous report downward revision. Reaction was a weak negative, shorting for 12 ticks then pulling back and reversing quickly. With JOBB you would not have filled until 20 sec if you had not cancelled the order. Due to the near matching report the slow reaction is not surprising. Reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot to achieve 41 ticks in only 5 min.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jun 072012

NG 07 12 (1 Min) 06.07.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jun 072012

6/7/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 57B
Actual: 62B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.398
1st Peak @ 2.333 – 0431 (1 min)
65 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.304 – 0450 (20 min)
94 ticks (2x bottom)

Reversal to 2.324 – 0508 (38 min)
20 ticks

Notes: Small offset in the supply gain from the forecast caused a surprising large short spike and 2nd peak with a minimal reversal. The market must have been look for an excuse to sell off. No SMAs were crossed, but the S2 Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar path. The 2nd peak claimed another 29 ticks in about 20 min, and the reversal only achieved 20 ticks in 38 min before dropping again.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 052012

6/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 83.87
1st Peak @ 84.19 – 0402 (2 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.36 – 0404 (4 min)
49 ticks (2x top)

Reversal to 84.10 – 0406 (6 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast. This should have caused a dull reaction; however, the market made a strong long move due to the dollar dropping hard at the same time. This caused a spike of 23 ticks that was slightly delayed followed by a 2nd peak of 49 ticks. An accidental winner with JOBB, but it is okay to be lucky sometimes. The reversal yielded 26 ticks 2 min after the 2nd peak.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.04.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Jun 042012

6/4/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.3%
Actual: -0.6%
Previous Revision: -0.6% to -2.1%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 83.09
Peak @ 82.83 – 0402 (2 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 83.13 – 0408 (8 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Negative report fell well short of the forecast along with a large downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks in 2 minute that crossed no SMAs or Pivots and could not reach the 100 SMA. Given such a disappointing report, the selloff occurring in the 30 min prior to the report took many of the bears out of the market, so it was unwilling to drop more than 26 ticks. The reversal yielded 30 ticks after a double bottom made a failed attempt at a 2nd peak. Then inspite of the report the market rallied for another 60 ticks in the next 10 min reacting to the larger oversold sentiment.

CL 07 12 (1 Min) 06.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Jun 012012

6/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 54.0
Actual: 53.5
Previous revision: n/a
INDECISIVE
Started @ 83.76
1st Peak @ 83.64 / Reverse to 84.08 – 0401 (1 min)
-12 ticks / 32 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast causing indecision with a premature short spike then a strong long spike. Since this report followed negative news from Europe then a very disappointing US Employment report, and occurred on a Friday, the markets were jittery and thinly traded. When a nearly matching report resulted, it was a recipe for indecision. The 50 and 200 SMAs heavily influenced the market movement 20 min on either side of the report.

CL 07 12 (1 Range) 06.01.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Jun 012012

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