Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.22.11

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Nov 222011

11/22/2011 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.4%
Actual: 2.0%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.48
1st Peak@ 98.16 – 0331 (1 min)
32 ticks

2nd Peak@ 97.93 – 0347 (17 min)
55 ticks

Reversal to 98.23 – 0350 (20 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative (0.4% off of the forecast is about the max that is typically seen). Report released in the middle of a preexisting Downward FAN. This aided the magnitude of the drop, but also notice the pullback on the 0331 candle. Still given the FAN, I would wait it out for a deeper drop. It is hard to say where the influence of the report stops since the FAN would have likely continued on course without the report. The 2nd peak is obvious at 0347 when the FAN reverses, but I only assess the first rebound level to be due to the GDP report. I would close out after seeing the 0343 candle as that is a good indication the downward momentum is exhausted.

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Nov 172011

11/17/2011 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 8.7
Actual:3.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 101.66
1st Peak @ 101.44 – 0501 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 101.78 – 0502 (2 min) / 102.03 – 0510 (10 min)
34 ticks / 59 ticks

Notes: Report mildly fell short of forecast causing a meager spike, pullback, and greater reversal . The 0401 candle fell steadily 22 ticks up to 22 sec, then hovered at the max negative point 8 sec before rising. That would have been my cue to close out there. Notice the reversal at 0402 hit the 200 and 50 SMAs along with the S1 line – a solid resistance buffer causing it to bounce back. It took another 6-8 min to break through hitting a max high at 0410.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.17.11

Building Permits / Housing Starts Comments Off

Nov 172011

11/17/2011 Monthly Building Permits (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 0.60M
Actual:0.65M
Previous revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 101.26
1st Peak @ 101.55 – 0331 (1 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 101.70 – 0339 (9 min)
44 ticks

Retrace to 101.32 – 0343 (13 min)

Notes: Strong report 0.05M above forecast. Used the 50 SMA as support during retracement between 1st and 3nd peaks. I would get out in the 101.62 range 0336 – 0339 since it hit resistance in that area.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.15.11

Retail Sales Comments Off

Nov 152011

11/15/2011 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual:0.6%
Previous revision:-0.1% to 0.5%
Regular Forecast: 0.3%
Regular Actual:0.5%
Previous Revision: none
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 98.29
1st Peak @ 98.53 – 0331 (1 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 98.57 – 0341 (11 min)
28 ticks

Reversal to 98.19 – 0356 (26 min)
38 ticks

Notes: Strong report came in above forecast, but previous revision on core report was slightly lower. This caused a healthy spike with a good reversal between the 1st and 2nd peaks and after the 2nd peak. Reports broke at same time as the PPI report which was moderately negative, taking away some of the momentum from the spike (the long wick on the 0331 candle and full reversal on 0332 candle). I would trade this report as PPI is a light mover and would only moderate or amplify the retail sales effect. Either close when you see falling from the peak on the 1st candle, or wait and ride the heat until the 2nd peak 10-15 min later.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.10.11

Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 102011

11/10/2011 Monthly Trade Balance (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: -46.1B
Actual: -43.1B
Previous Revision: +0.7B to -44.9B
Spike / retrace
Started @ 97.87
1st Peak @ 98.28 – 0331 (1 min)
41 ticks

Retrace to 97.78 – 0334 – 0339 (4-9 min)
50 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded forecast, and previous report revised slightly upward. Report broke on Thursday at the same time as weekly unemployment claims (slightly positive at 390K). I would not trade this report with 2 medium movers breaking at the same time. The long wick on the 0331 candle is typical of the unemployment report.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.04.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 042011

11/4/2011 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 97K
Non Farm Jobs Actual:80K
Previous Revision:+55K to 158K
Rate Forecast: 9.1%
Rate Actual:9.0%
INDECISIVE
Started @ 94.78
1st Peak @ 94.06 / 94.93 – 0231 (1 min)
-72 ticks / 15 ticks

Notes: Mixed report that disappointed the forecast with jobs created, but excelled with an upward revision to the previous report and the rate falling. This mixed news caused indecision with a huge tail on the 0231 candle and a seesaw in the following 15 minutes. Still if you played it wisely and noticed the hovering for about 12 sec at the 94.10 level, you could have captured a good profit.

CL 03 12 (2 Range) 11.04.11

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 042011

CL 05 12 (1 Min) 11.03.11

Factory Orders Comments Off

Nov 032011

CL 04 12 (1 Min) 11.02.11

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 022011

11/2/2011 Monthly ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0215 HI time / 0815 EDT)
Forecast: 102K
Actual:110K
Previous Revision:+25K to 116k
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 94.06
1st Peak @ 94.40 – 0218 (3 min)
34 ticks

Retrace to 94.13 – 0222 (7 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded forecast, and previous report revised largely upward. Strong 3 candle rise aided by previously occurring FAN. Given the FAN and the positive initial reaction, I would wait and let the trade play out. When the 0219 candle retraces more than 5 ticks, that is a good place to get out since the upward movement is terminating, yielding to the reversal. Notice the reversal dropped to the bottom of the trend line that the FAN had established.

CL 03 12 (1 Min) 11.01.11

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 012011

11/1/2011 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual:50.8
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE / RETRACE
Started @ 91.06
1st Peak @ 90.41 – 0401 (1 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.89 – 0402 (2 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of forecast causing a healthy spike, and immediate reversal. The 200 SMA acted like a magnet limiting the spike and the reversal, then preventing any major departure from it in the following 10 minutes. With the 0401 candle crossing the 200 SMA halfway and not able to reach the 100 SMA, I would wait until the 0402 candle until it started to go long and close out at about 90.60, just in case the 0402 candle would fall again.

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