Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZS 01-15 (1 Min) 11.10.2014

WASDE - Beans Comments Off

Nov 232014

11/10/2014 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Soybeans (1200 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1043.75 (1200:32)
1st Peak @ 1036.00 – 1200:35 (1 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 1044.75 – 1203 (3 min)
35 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1025.50 – 1212 (12 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 1038.00 – 1232 (32 min)
50 ticks

Final Peak @1021.75 – 1334 (94 min)
88 ticks

Notes: With the beans, we recommend a delayed setup at 32 sec. In this case the initial reaction would have been unsafe to trade as it shot long 16 ticks, then reversed strongly. As usual, it would have been tame as it hovered below the 200 SMA and R1 Pivot to provide an anchor point at 1043.75 at 32 sec. With JOBB, your short entry would have filled at 1041.75 with 2 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it fall immediately for 31 ticks to nearly reach the OOD. Then it backed off a few ticks and chopped sideways. A target set at 1037.00 would have filled easily for about 19 ticks. It eventually reversed for 35 ticks in about 90 sec to the area of the 200 SMA and R1 Mid Pivot. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of another 42 ticks after 9 min to reach the S1 Pivot and extend the LOD. Then it reversed 50 ticks in 20 min before falling slowly for a final peak of 15 more ticks after about an hour.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.3.2014

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/3/2014 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 59.0
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008790
1st Peak @ 0.008774 – 1000:00 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 0.008791 – 1000:56 (1 min)
17 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008770 – 1012 (12 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 0.008800 – 1023 (23 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report strongly exceeded the forecast with a deviation of 2.5 pts and matched the high of September. This caused a quick and shortly sustained spike of 16 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell to cross the 50 SMA near the origin, then the S3 Pivot while extending the LOD. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 0.008783 with 3 ticks of slippage, then look to exit where it hovered for 6 sec just below the S3 Pivot for about 5 ticks. It reversed quickly due to the strong support at the S3 Pivot back to the origin as the :01 bar was expiring. If you look at the price action in the last 2 hrs, you will see at least 4 tests of the S3 Pivot that failed to penetrate. After the reversal, it fell for a 2nd peak of 4 more ticks after 11 min, but the S3 Pivot held again, limiting the time spent below the barrier to about 4 min. Then it reversed 30 ticks in 11 min to the 200 SMA. After that it fell again over a longer period to a lower low after about an hour after the report.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.4.2014

Trade Balance Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/4/2014 Monthly Trade Balance (0830 EST)
Forecast: -40.0B
Actual: -43.0B
Previous Revision: +0.1B to -40.0B
DULL REACTION…SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008816
1st Peak @ 0.008826 – 0834 (4 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 0.008815 – 0841 (11 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 3.0B to cause a dull spike initially that took 14 sec to reach 3 ticks and 4 min to achieve 10 ticks as it crossed the 200 SMA. The spike started just below the 50 SMA and rose to cross the 100 / 200 SMAs and R2 Mid Pivot. With JOBB you should have cancelled as the reaction sat idle for more than 10 sec. If you did not cancel, you would have filled long at 0.008819 with no slippage and seen it slowly ascend. With the strong resistance barriers just above and the failure to launch, look ot exit with 1-2 ticks of profit late in the :31 bar or early in the :32 bar. It continued to snag another 4 ticks in the next 2 min, then reversed 11 ticks in the next 7 min.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/5/2014 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 214K
Actual: 230K
Previous revision: +12K to 225K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008718 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008710 – 0815:05 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008725 – 0816:24 (2 min)
)))15 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008716 – 0820 (5 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008737 – 0825 (10 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008710 (just below the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008699 (No SMA/Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008726 (just above the 100 SMA / 0.008736 (just above the S3 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 16k above the forecast to cause an 8 tick short move in 5 sec followed by a 15 ticks reversal after a about 80 sec. This would have barely filled your inner long entry if you had it at 0.008710, otherwise it would have just missed. It also hovered below the S4 Mid Pivot for about 30 sec to allow an easy entry by manually moving the tier up by 1-3 ticks. The reversal was typical, going beyond the origin and taking a little over a minute. Look to exit near the 100 SMA for about 14 ticks. After that it reversed 9 ticks to the 20 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 21 ticks in 5 min, crossing the 100/200 SMAs and the S3 Pivot in 5 min. After that it traded sideways around the 200 SMA and S3 Pivot for about 20 min before drifting lower.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.5.2014

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/5/2014 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 58.2
Actual: 57.1
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008713
1st Peak @ 0.008724 – 1000:12 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 0.008715 – 1003 (3 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008726 – 1009 (9 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 0.008718 – 1012 (12 min)
8 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast by 1.1 points to cause a long spike of 11 ticks that started on the S4 Mid Pivot and rose to cross the 100/200 SMAs. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 0.008717 with 1 tick of slippage, then seen slowly climb to reach the SMAs after 12 sec then hover for about 10 sec. Look to exit at 0.008722 where it hovered for about 5 ticks. After the peak, it reversed 9 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA. Then it climbed for a 2nd peak of only 2 more ticks after 6 min. Then it reversed 8 ticks in 3 min to get tangled in the SMAs. After that it traded sideways for 15 min, then trended upward.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.6.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 292014

11/6/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 285K
Actual: 278K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008727
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008728 – 0.008724 – 0831 (1 min)
)))4 ticks
————
Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008718 (in between the OOD / S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008707 (on the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008735 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008747 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly strong with 7k offset. This caused a muted response with the :31 bar only moving within a 4 tick range overall. This would have been an obvious scenario to cancel the order on the dull movement and small reaction. It continued to have no impulse until 4 min after the report when the ECB press conference commentary drove the market short.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.13.2014

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/13/2014 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 282K
Actual: 290K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008662
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008654 – 0829:54 (0 min)
)))-8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008674 – 0832:34 (3 min)
)))20 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008654 – 0844 (14 min)
20 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008653 (just below the OOD / 100_200 SMAs) / 0.008643 (No SMA /Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008670 (just above the PP Pivot) / 0.008681 (just above the R1 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in modestly weak with 8k offset. This caused a premature short spike of 8 ticks that was probably just inside of the inner long entry. It fell to the OOD and 100/200 SMAs then retreated quickly, not allowing a manual shift entry. Since the news caused a long reaction, this was perfect causing a 20 tick reversal in 2.5 min. It had little movement in the first half of the :31 bar so cancel the order. Then it pulled back 20 ticks in 11 min back to the OOD.

6J 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/14/2014 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (0955 EDT)
Forecast: 87.3
Actual: 89.4
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.0008577 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008570 – 0956:52 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008575 – 0957:38 (3 min)
)))5 ticks
————
Continued Reversal to 0.008603 – 1007 (12 min)
33 ticks

Pullback to 0.008587 – 1011 (16 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008572 (just below the S3 Pivot) / 0.008561 (on the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008583 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008593 (on the S3 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in higher than the forecast by 2.1 points causing a slow 7 tick short spike after nearly 2 min as it crossed the S3 Pivot. Since it only moved 4 ticks initially then retreated 2 ticks, do not look for a manual entry and cancel the order after 20 sec. After peaking it reversed 5 ticks in about 45 sec, then another 28 ticks in 9 min as it crossed the S3 Mid Pivot. Then it pulled back 16 ticks in the next 4 min to the 13 SMA and traded sideways.

ES 12-14 (1 Min) 11.7.2014

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 302014

11/7/2014 Monthly Unemployment Report (0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 235K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 214K
Previous Revision: +8K to 256K
Rate Forecast: 5.9%
Rate Actual: 5.8%
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL (SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK)
Anchor Point @ 2029.00 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 2026.25 – 0830:01 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 2033.50 – 0831:33 (2 min)
)))29 ticks
————
Pullback to 2028.75 – 0834 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 2032.75 – 0847 (17 min)
16 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2023.75 – 0912 (42 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 2022.50 (on the PP Pivot) / 2019.00 (just below the S1 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 2034.75 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 2039.50 (just below the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Mixed report with 21K less jobs added than the forecast, a small upward revision to the previous report and an improvement of 0.1% on the U-3 rate to 5.8%. We saw a small short spike of only 11 ticks in the first 1 sec to nearly reach the LOD then a reversal of 29 ticks in the next 90 sec that crossed the HOD. This would have fallen short of the inner long order, and not allowed a manual entry as it rebounded quickly. After the reversal, it pulled back 19 ticks in 2 min to the 20 SMA before reversing 16 ticks in 13 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 10 more ticks in the next 25 min as it extended the LOD and kept stepping lower for slightly lower lows over the next 2 hrs.

ZB 12-14 (1 Min) 11.14.2014

Retail Sales Comments Off

Dec 012014

11/14/2014 Monthly Retail Sales (0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.3%
Previous revision: +0.2% to 0.0%
Regular Forecast: 0.2%
Regular Actual: 0.3%
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 141’04
1st Peak @ 140’31 – 0830:06 (1 min)
5 ticks

Reversal to 141’04 – 0832 (2 min)
5 ticks

Final Peak @ 140’27 – 0840 (10 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 141’07 – 0859 (29 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly strong, exceeding the forecasts by 0.1% margins with an upward previous revision on the core reading. Import Prices also released at the same time, exceeding the forecast. This caused a short spike for 5 ticks that started on the S1 Mid Pivot and fell to the S1 Pivot and hovered. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 141’01 with no slippage, then seen it settle to hover between 141’00 and 140’31. Look to exit there for 1-2 ticks. After that it reversed back to the origin at the beginning of the :32 bar then chopped lower for a final peak of 4 more ticks after 8 min, nearly reaching the S2 Mid Pivot. Then it reversed 9 ticks to the PP Pivot in 19 min.

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