Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.13.2015

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment Comments Off

Mar 152015

2/13/2015 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment (1000 EST)*Late time change
Forecast: 98.2
Actual: 93.6
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.0008404 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008415 – 1000:02 (1 min)
)))11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008408 – 1001:01 (2 min)
)))-7 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008435 – 1005 (5 min)
31 ticks

Reversal to 0.008419 – 1034 (34 min)
16 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008398 (just above the OOD) / 0.008390 (just below the LOD)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the 50 SMA) / 0.008419 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: The report came in lower than the forecast by 4.6 points causing an 11 tick long move in 2 sec. This would have filled your inner short entry and missed the outer tier by 4 ticks then fallen 7 ticks in the next min to allow an exit with 1-2 ticks at 0.008408 where it hovered for over 30 sec. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 20 more ticks in 3 min as it eclipsed the R1 Mid Pivot before reversing 16 ticks in 29 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/19/2015 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (1000 EST)
Forecast: 8.8
Actual: 5.2
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION…SPIKE/ REVERSE
Started @ 0.008407
1st Peak @ 0.008415 – 1001:45 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008403 – 1029 (29 min)
12 ticks

Notes: Report fell mildly short of the forecast with a delta of 3.6 pts, causing a slow developing long spike of 8 ticks that started on the 13 SMA and rose to eclipse the PP Pivot after nearly 2 min. With JOBB, your long order would have filled at 0.008410 with no slippage after 7 sec then hovered near your fill point for most of the :01 bar before climbing another 4 ticks on the :32 bar. It would have been safe and conservative to exit near break even with the hovering, but this is a small moving report and the PP Pivot was also a few ticks away, so waiting would be low risk. After the peak, it fell to hover around 0.008409 for about 10 min, then fell another 8 ticks to the 100/200 SMAs after about 15 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 172015

2/19/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 283K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008401
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Bar Span 0.008400 – 0.008403 – 0831 (1 min)
)))3 ticks
————
1st peak @ 0.008395 – 0834 (4 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 0.008400 – 0837 (7 min)
5 ticks

2nd Peak @ 0.008392 – 0846 (16 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008401 – 0906 (36 min)
9 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008391 (just above the S1 Pivot) / 0.008382 (No SMA / Pivot near)
Short entries – 0.008410 (just above the 200 SMA) / 0.008421 (just below the OOD)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 10k offset. This caused minimal movement with only 3 ticks span on the :31 bar making it an easy decision to cancel the order. After that, it fell in a tame delayed move for 6 ticks in 3 min for the 1st peak to extend the LOD followed by a 5 tick reversal to the 13 SMA in 3 min. Then it fell for a 2nd peak of 3 more ticks in 9 min before reversing 9 ticks back to the S1 Mid Pivot.

CL 04-15 (1 Min) 2.19.2015

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Mar 182015

2/19/2015 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1100 EST)
Forecast: 3.23M
Actual: 7.72M
Gasoline
Forecast: 0.17M
Actual: 0.49M
Distillates
Forecast: -2.05M
Actual: -3.81M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 50.41
1st Peak @ 51.60 – 1101:49 (1 min)
119 ticks

Reversal to 50.61 – 1108 (8 min)
99 ticks

2nd Peak @ 52.39 – 1147 (47 min)
198 ticks

Reversal to 51.70 – 1155 (55 min)
69 ticks

Continued Reversal to 51.32 – 1237 (97 min)
107 ticks

Notes: Another large gain in inventories when a healthy gain was expected, while gasoline saw a negligible gain when a lower negligible gain was expected, and distillates saw a moderate draw when a modest draw was expected. This caused a large long spike that started on the 100 SMA and climbed for a total of 119 ticks in nearly 2 min as it crossed the major SMAs near the origin, the OOD, and extended the HOD. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 50.55 with 4 ticks of slippage, then you would have seen it slowly step higher with minimal drawback to allow over 100 ticks to be captured with patience. After that it reversed strongly as it fell 99 ticks in 7 min to the 50 SMA. Then it rallied for a 2nd peak of 79 more ticks in 39 min as it eclipsed the S1 Pivot. Then it reversed 69 ticks in 8 min to nearly reach the S2 Pivot and another 38 ticks in 42 min as it crossed the 100 SMA and nearly reached the OOD.

ZB 03-15 (1 Min) 2.27.2015

Prelim GDP Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/27/2015 Quarterly Prelim GDP (0830 EST)
Forecast: 2.1%
Actual: 2.2%
Previous Revision: n/a
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 146’21
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 146’16 – 0830:15 (1 min)
)))-5 ticks

)))Reversal to 146’22 – 0830:39 (1 min)
)))6 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 146’14 – 0835 (5 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 146’24 – 0842 (12 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 146’17 (in between the 50/100 SMAs) / 146’13 (just above the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 146’25 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 146’29 (just above the HOD)

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.1%, causing a short spike of 5 ticks in 15 sec that started on the OOD and fell to reach the 100 SMA before reversing. This would have filled the inner long entry with 1 tick to spare. As it reversed, it hovered at 146’21 +/- 1 tick for 5 sec allowing an easy quick exit for about 4 ticks. After that it fell for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks in 4 min to the 200 SMA before reversing 10 ticks to the S1 Mid Pivot in 8 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 2.26.2015

Durable Goods, Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 202015

2/26/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 288K
Actual: 313K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008415
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008423 – 0830:53 (1 min)
)))8 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008400 – 0832:04 (3 min)
)))-23 ticks
————
Pullback to 0.008409 – 0837 (7 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 0.008388 – 0902 (32 min)
21 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008403 (just below the S1 Pivot) / 0.008397 (just below the S2 Mid Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008425 (just above the R1 Pivot) / 0.008433 (just above the R2 Pivot)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 25k offset. Durable Goods were offsetting as was CPI. This caused a delayed move that climbed 8 ticks at the end of the :31 bar to cross the 200 SMA and hit the R1 Pivot. Then it reversed 23 ticks in a little over a minute as it crossed the S1 Pivot. The move would have been too slow and small to breach the tier, so cancel the order. After that, it pulled back 9 ticks in 4 min to the S1 Mid Pivot before reversing for 21 ticks as it crossed the S2 Pivot.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.2.2015

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 262015

3/2/2015 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.4
Actual: 52.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 0.008349
1st Peak @ 0.008341 – 1000:59 (3 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008347 – 1002 (2 min)
6 ticks

Final Peak @ 0.008323 – 1101 (61 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 0.008330 – 1106 (66 min)
7 ticks

Notes: Report fell short of the forecast with a deviation of 0.5 pts. This caused an initial short spike of 8 ticks that started on the 100 SMA and fell 8 ticks slowly over the course of the :01 bar. With JOBB and a 4 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008345 with no slippage. It fell slowly to allow 2-3 ticks to be captured as it hovered, but with no support barrier around, you could afford to be patient. After a reversal of 6 ticks in the next bar, it continued to fall for another 18 ticks in the next hour as it reached the S2 Pivot. Then it reversed 7 ticks in 5 min to the 50 SMA.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Comments Off

Mar 272015

3/4/2015 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (0815 EST)
Forecast: 219K
Actual: 212K
Previous revision: +37K to 250K
TRAP TRADE – INNER TIER
Anchor Point @ 0.008362 (last price)
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008351 – 0815:02 (1 min)
)))-11 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008360 – 0815:08 (1 min)
)))9 ticks

)))Pullback to 0.008354 – 0815:21 (1 min)
)))-6 ticks
————
Reversal to 0.008371 – 0822 (7 min)
17 ticks

Pullback to 0.008363 – 0831 (16 min)
8 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008352 (just above the S1 Mid Pivot) / 0.008342 (just below the S1 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008370 (just above the HOD) / 0.008382 (just below the R2 Mid Pivot)

Notes: Report came in 7k below the forecast offset by a large upward previous revision to cause a quick 11 tick short spike to the S1 Mid Pivot followed by a reversal of 9 ticks in the next 6 sec to the PP Pivot. This would have filled your inner long entry perfectly with 1 tick to spare then allowed 7-8 ticks to be captured immediately, or more later if you were patient. After the immediate reversal, it pulled back 6 ticks 13 sec later to the OOD area before reversing 17 ticks in the next 6 min to the HOD. It would have been safe to wait for a larger reversal than the initial 9 ticks since the report was conflicting between the current result and past revision. After the reversal it pulled back 8 ticks in 9 min.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.4.2015

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Mar 272015

3/4/2015 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (1000 EST)
Forecast: 56.5
Actual: 56.9
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 0.008358
1st Peak @ 0.008350 – 1001:09 (2 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 0.008360 – 1014 (14 min)
10 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast by 0.4 pts. This caused a 8 tick short spike that started below the PP Pivot and fell to cross the S1 Mid Pivot. With JOBB and a 3 tick bracket, your short entry would have filled at 0.008355 with no slippage, then you would have seen it trickle lower to hover as the :01 bar transitioned on the S1 Mid Pivot to allow an exit with 4-5 ticks. After that it reversed 10 ticks in the next 12 min to the PP Pivot and traded sideways.

6J 03-15 (1 Min) 3.5.2015

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Mar 282015

3/5/2015 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 293K
Actual: 320K
TRAP TRADE – DULL NO FILL
Anchor Point @ 0.008310
————
Trap Trade:
)))1st Peak @ 0.008320 – 0830:06 (1 min)
)))10 ticks

)))Reversal to 0.008312 – 0830:18 (1 min)
)))-8 ticks
————
2nd Peak @ 0.008322 – 0834 (4 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 0.008312 – 0847 (17 min)
10 ticks

Trap Trade Bracket setup:
Long entries – 0.008300 (just above the S4 Mid Pivot) / 0.008290 (just above the S4 Pivot)
Short entries – 0.008320 (just above the 100 SMA) / 0.008329 (No SMA / Pivot near)

Notes: Report came in worse than expected with 27k offset. This caused a quick and unsustainable long spike of 10 ticks that would have touched the inner short entry on the 100 SMA but not filled. Since it retreated quickly, cancel the order with no fill. It reversed 8 ticks in 12 sec back to the S3 Pivot before climbing for a 2nd peak of 2 more ticks to the 200 SMA in 3 min. Then it reversed 10 ticks in 13 min to the S3 Pivot.

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