Other US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -2.4M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.40
1st Peak @ 88.06 – 0531 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 88.55 – 0536 (6 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.46 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 88.34 – 0706 (96 min)
88 ticks

Notes: In spite of a moderate drop in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 88.29 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 – 20 ticks as it finished the :31 bar extending the LOD. After the 1st peak, it reversed in the following 5 min as the bulls rallied on the crude #s only, then fell for a rapid and dramatic 2nd peak of nearly 100 ticks. Then it reversed back up to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the PP Pivot in the following hour for 88 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.03.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 032012

12/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.08
1st Peak @ 89.60 – 0504 (4 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 90.06 – 0531 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.96 – 0611 (71 min)
112 ticks

Reversal to 89.30 – 0631 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast and fell below 50 again after 2 months of a small recovery. This caused a healthy selloff of 48 ticks in 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and bottomed at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 3 ticks of slippage at 89.99, then depending on your level of patience had an opportunity to close out with up to 35 ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot at 89.65. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 89.82 at the 100 SMA. Please see the video on this report for many lessons. The market was overbought in the short term due to the rally of about 150 ticks in the previous 3 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, correcting to the 100 SMA, but then rebounded to 20 ticks off of the peak. This enhanced the selling pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim nearly all of the 1st peak in 31 min, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs for a double top at 90.06. Then it fell for a much larger 2nd peak of 112 ticks to 88.96 in the span of about 30 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot with ease. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 34 ticks, to nick the R1 Pivot, then traded sideways.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 11.29.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 292012

11/29/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -5B
Actual: 4B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.696
1st Peak @ 3.637 – 0531 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.678 – 0535 (5 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.697 – 0641 (71 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply when a small loss was forecast caused a short spike of 59 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and fell another 23 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.668. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-25 ticks as it hovered below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it quickly retreated upward for a 41 tick reversal in only 5 min nearing the 13 SMA. Then it tried to go for a 2nd peak, stalled 7 ticks above the 1st peak, and retreated long again to fight through the 50 then the 100 SMA for 60 ticks over an hour later. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 282012

11/28/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.3M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.69
1st Peak @ 85.51 – 0531 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 85.70 – 0531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 86.45 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Small loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a big gain in gasoline and small drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.53 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it head for your stop loss in 3 sec. After the :31 bar settled lower, the long term reaction reversed long for nearly 100 ticks in 25 min, reacting more to the drop in crude and distillates, while also correcting from the big selloff in the last 10 hrs.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Nov 272012

11/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 73.1
Actual: 73.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.84 – 0501 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 87.60 – 0506 (6 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report barley exceeded the forecast and caused a dull reaction of only 6 ticks. With JOBB you would not have been filled if you had a bracket of 7 or closed out your order after 12-15 sec. Since it was in a short term upward movement that was finding resistance on the 100 SMA with the 200 SMA looming just a few ticks higher, it could not go long without a good driver. After 2 bars of flirting with the 100 SMA, it reversed down to eclipse the 50 SMA and PP Pivot for 24 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Nov 272012

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.01
1st Peak @ 88.20 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reverse to 87.79 – 0341 (11 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots having just bounced long off of the 50 SMA as support, and was trading in a relatively narrow range with the LOD and HOD only 43 ticks apart. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 88.09 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 5-10 ticks on the :32 bar as it approached the HOD. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 200 by about 10 ticks, then traded sideways straddling the 200 for about 20 min.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Nov 212012

11/21/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 415K
Actual: 410K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.46 – 0234 (4 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 87.65 – 0343 (13 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.40 – 0347 (17 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 87.88 – 0408 (38 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly better than the forecast by 5K jobs, but still above the psychologically negative 400K level. The trading community has gotten accustomed to #s in the 350-370 range, so anything north of 400 triggers the bears. This caused a slow developing but large sized short spike of 32 ticks in 4 min that had to cross all 3 SMAs. The PP Pivot had been tested a few times in the previous hour and served as resistance, aiding the selling momentum. With JOBB, you would not have filled on the :31 bar as it stayed in a 4 tick range. It would have been safe to cancel the order as indications of a dull reaction were evident. When it moved short of 87.71, breaking a short term support level, that would be a place where a follow on short entry could be made. Notice that it did not struggle with penetrating the 100 and 200 SMAs. The bars stop and start there, but there is little retracement. It would be safe to close out at or just below the 200. After the 1st peak, it reversed up to the 100 SMA, then achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks. Then it reversed long for 48 ticks in about 20 min through the pit open, fighting through all 3 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for a double top at 87.88.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 212012

11/21/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: -1.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 87.54
1st Peak @ 87.68 – 0531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 87.34 – 0532 (2 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 87.64 with no slippage, peak briefly 4 ticks higher, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 14 ticks, it reversed for 34 ticks to hit a short term area of support, then popped back up to just below the 200 SMA. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and lower extremes for the next hour. Relatively low magnitude on the swings, but still presents good opportunities to buy the dips (after the :43 and :05 bars) and sell the rips (any wick just below the 200 SMA) looking for 15 ticks.

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 212012

11/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: -27B
Actual: -38B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.835
1st Peak @ 3.910 – 0701 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 3.857 – 0707 (7 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Greater loss in supply than the forecast caused a long spike of 75 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and approached the R2 Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.865. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 30-40 ticks as it hovered between 3.895 and 3.905. After achieving the 1st peak, it tried to go for a 2nd peak, failed, and retreated quickly to near the 20 SMA for 53 ticks. Then it bounced back up, fell back to hit the 50 SMA, then trended higher. The R2 was at 3.917. I had my sell limit there anticipating a reversal entry, but it never got there, falling short by 7 ticks. I got in much later going short on the R1 and nagging 14 ticks as it touched the 50 SMA.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Nov 152012

11/15/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.1
Actual: -10.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.29 – 0502 (2 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 86.77 – 0508 (8 min)
48 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.20 – 0522 (22 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 86.59 – 0552 (52 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast, causing a short move of 38 ticks over 2 bars. With the short move in the previous 30 min hitting the LOD, then seeing a gap close correction to the 13 SMA prior to the report, the bearish report was prime to drop. It tested the PP Pivot and LOD on the :31 bar, and dipped about 12 ticks below it on the :32 bar. Unable to sustain the drop, it reversed strongly for 48 ticks 6 min later, then dove for a 2nd peak of 47 ticks. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 86.59 with 2 ticks of slippage. I would place a buy limit order between the LOD and the PP Pivot at about 86.43 which would have yielded 16 ticks. The final reversal yielded 39 ticks, peaking just before the Oil inventory report.

Older Entries Newer Entries