US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.25.13

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/25/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 352K
Actual: 339K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 1453.4
1st Peak @ 1451.4 – 0831 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 1453.6 – 0835 (5 min)
22 ticks

2nd Peak @ 1444.7 – 0939 (69 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 1457.4 – 1023 (113 min)
127 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 13k jobs, but caused a relatively muted reaction of only 20 ticks after a huge rally of about 100 ticks in the 30 min before the report. After establishing a much higher HOD, it backed off, then the bearish report was released and it could not go lower than the R3 Pivot and 13 SMA for about 30 min. Then it finally fell for a 2nd peak of 87 ticks culminating over an hour after the report to eclipse the R3 Mid Pivot. After that the reversal popped back up 127 ticks in about 45 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1452.3 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity for a handful of ticks. I waited several min, expecting a drop through the R3 Pivot. After 10 min, I closed out fearing the influence of the report would be waning and it could resume the rally from earlier.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.18.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/18/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 349K
Actual: 352K
INDECISIVE
Started @ 1399.6
1st Peak @ 1397.1 – 0831 (1 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 1401.9 – 0919 (49 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in nearly matching the forecast, causing an indecisive scenario with a 25 tick short spike then a 48 tick reversal. The spike nicked the 100 SMA, then reversed to hit the HOD and retreated to the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1398.4 with 2 ticks of slippage, then been stopped at 1400.6 with 2 ticks of slippage for 22 tick loss. After the indecision, it trended lower to eventually eclipse the PP Pivot.

GC 06-13 (1 Min) 4.11.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

4/11/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 346K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 1561.6
1st Peak @ 1555.5 – 0832 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 1561.7 – 0919 (49 min)
62 ticks

Notes: Report came in much better than the forecast by 16K jobs, causing a 61 tick short spike on 2 bars. The spike crossed all 3 SMAs and the S1 Mid Pivot, bottoming in between the LOD and the S1 Mid Pivot. This area was a proven support area from 90 min earlier. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at about 1560.2 with 4 ticks of slippage. With the decisive news, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The 200 SMA served as support briefly, then it was decisively conquered on the :32 bar. If you exited on the :31 bar, you could have taken about 12 ticks, but if you were patient and waited on the :32 bar, you could have exited with more than 40 ticks with ease. After it stalled out near the peak for about 5 min, it developed enough stored up divergence to rebound back to the origin. The reversal took over 45 min and struggled for about 30 min to conquer the SMAs for 62 ticks. After that it stepped up for several higher peaks.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.28.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/28/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EDT)
Forecast: 340K
Actual: 357K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 96.27
1st Peak @ 96.48 – 0832 (2 min)
21 ticks

Reversal to 96.33 – 0840 (10 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.78 – 0936 (66 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 96.47 – 0947 (77 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly weaker than the forecast by 17K jobs, causing a 21 tick long spike on 2 bars. As the report was released right after a large bearish move in the market, the spike hit resistance on the falling 13 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 96.33 with 1 tick of slippage. With the decisive news and the oversold market, look to go for a few more ticks safely. The dollar was falling to enhance the rally in the CL. You could have exited with 10-12 ticks on the :31 or :32 bar. If you stayed in for a longer term, look for a decisive 2nd peak after the pit open. It had to fight through all of the SMAs, but the 200 SMA would have been a good target at about 96.65 for over 30 ticks. After the 2nd peak was attained at 96.78, it reversed for 27 ticks in 11 min.

CL 05-13 (1 Min) 3.21.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

3/21/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 343K
Actual: 336K
DULL REACTION (FILL)
Started @ 93.24
1st Peak @ 93.16 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 93.30 – 0831 (1 min)
14 ticks

Extended Reversal to 93.43 – 0841 (11 min)
27 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by 7K jobs, causing an 8 tick short spike that quickly reversed 14 ticks by the end of the :31 bar. The initial drop crossed the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot right on top of each other at 93.20. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 93.18 with 1 tick of slippage just below the overlapping support, then seen it pop back long and hover around 5 ticks in the red until about 5 sec left of the bar. Look to close out there. After that it would have taken out your stop loss of 8 ticks. With the news being positive, the initial short move was likely a robotic HFT in the wrong direction. The bullish sentiment prevailed in the following 10 min, causing an extended reversal of 27 ticks, eclipsing the OOD on the :41 bar. Then it chopped sideways until the pit open initiated a selloff.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 2.14.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

2/14/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 361K
Actual: 341K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.18
1st Peak @ 97.33 – 0834 (4 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 97.04 – 0858 (28 min)
29 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.54 – 0914 (44 min)
36 ticks

Reversal to 97.28 – 0933 (63 min)
26 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by 20K jobs, causing a 15 tick spike realized on the :34 bar. Since the market was already trending upward, this continued the momentum, but it had to contend with the PP Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 97.24 with 1 tick of slippage on the PP Pivot, then seen it hover around 5 ticks of your fill point until it popped up on the :34 bar. Look for 5-8 ticks. After the peak, it reversed for 29 ticks just before the pit open, then achieved a 2nd peak of 36 ticks about 14 min after the open. The final reversal reclaimed 26 ticks in the next 20 min.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.31.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

1/31/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 362K
Actual: 368K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 97.49
1st Peak @ 97.41 – 0831 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 97.62 – 0839 (9 min)
21 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly worse than the forecast by 6K jobs, causing a dull and unsustainable 8 tick reaction on the :31 bar. Since the market was already testing the LOD and the S1 Pivot, it reversed for 21 ticks in the following 8 min to just below the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the :31 bar at 97.42 with no slippage, then seen it hover in the red within a few ticks of our your fill position. With a result close to the forecast, look to exit near the break even.

CL 03-13 (1 Min) 1.24.2013

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

May 052013

1/24/2013 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0830 EST)
Forecast: 359K
Actual: 330K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.78
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0831 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 95.77 – 0832 (2 min)
11 ticks

2nd Peak @ 96.12 – 0847 (17 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 95.88 – 0855 (25 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report came in strongly better than the forecast by almost 30K jobs, but only caused a 10 tick spike initially that ran into the barely established HOD and promptly fell on the next bar back to the origin. After the initial move, it trended higher riding the 13 and 20 SMAs. It achieved a 2nd peak of 34 ticks about 15 min after the 1st peak, then reversed for 24 ticks in the following 8 min to just above the 50 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the :31 bar at 95.85 with no slippage, then seen it hover within a few ticks of your fill position. The conservative play would be to get out near break even; however, if you noticed the results of the report and the market “failing to launch”, stay in and patiently wait for more. The triple top at 95.97 would have offered up to 10 ticks or the 3 strong long bars just after that offered a better exit. Remember if it shoots for a 2nd peak, the 17 min mark is often when it hits.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 5.1.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

5/1/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.2M
Actual: 6.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 91.00
1st Peak @ 90.35 – 1033 (3 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 90.86 – 1105 (35 min)
51 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.11 – 1158 (88 min)
89 ticks

Reversal to 91.03 – 1317 (167 min)
92 ticks

Notes: Large gain in crude inventories when a smaller gain was expected, while gasoline saw a moderate draw and distillates saw a small draw. Commercial oil inventories continue to be categorized as above their upper limit. This caused a short move of 65 ticks that bottomed on the :33 bar. The initial spike used the 100 and 50 SMAs as resistance to propel the move, then crossed the S3 Pivot and extended the LOD 27 ticks. Then the reversal took over to reclaim 51 ticks in about 30 min up to the 100 SMA. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled short at about 90.87 with 3 ticks of slippage. Look to exit at about 90.62 with the LOD and S3 Pivot. The :32 bar would have crashed through there giving you 25 ticks. After the initial reversal, it stepped down to a 2nd Peak of 24 more ticks about 90 min after the report, using the 50 SMA as resistance. Then it reversed for 92 ticks in about 80 min crossing all 3 majors SMAs and the S3 Pivot.

CL 06-13 (1 Min) 4.24.2013

Oil Inventory Comments Off

May 052013

4/24/2013 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (1030 EDT)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: 0.9M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 90.31
1st Peak @ 90.47 – 1031 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 90.11 – 1031 (1 min)
-36 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.11 – 1202 (92 min)
80 ticks

Reversal to 90.71 – 1238 (128 min)
40 ticks

Notes: Minimal gain in crude inventories when a more sizable gain was expected, while gasoline saw a large draw and distillates saw no change. Commercial oil inventories are categorized as above their upper limit though. This prompted an indecisive scenario that rallied for 16 ticks first before reversing for 36 ticks on the :31 bar. The gasoline draw caused the long move, then the large inventories of crude reversed the sentiment. With JOBB and a 10 tick buffer, you would have filled long at about 90.44 with 3 ticks of slippage, then been stopped almost immediately as it left the wick naked at 90.26 with 3 ticks of slippage. After the initial indecision, it chopped sideways and eventually returned to the bullish trend in place before the report as the gasoline results drove it up to over $91 about an hour after the report.

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