US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 03 13 (1 Min) 12.13.12

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 132012

12/13/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.82/2.8
Actual: 2.92/2.5
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’05 (0801)
1st Peak @ 147’24 – 0802 (1 min)
13 ticks

Reversal to 148’05 – 0812 (11 min)
13 ticks

2nd Peak @ 147’22 – 0828 (27 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 147’31 – 0843 (42 min)
9 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose more than expected from the previous auction, after the FED move to buy $45B in long term bonds from the FOMC meeting the previous day. This caused a selloff of 13 ticks. With JOBB you would fill short at 147’31 with 3 ticks of slippage. The spike crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, but bottomed 1 tick above the 200 SMA. I had my exit on the 200 expecting it to eclipse that level, when it did not fill and reversed back to my fill point, I moved the exit up to the 100 SMA and exited with 3 ticks. Still you could have closed out with up to 6 ticks on the initial spike. It corrected back to the origin, then fell for a 2nd peak of 15 ticks 27 min after the auction. After that it reversed for 9 ticks then traded sideways.

ZB 03 13 (1 Min) 12.12.12

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Dec 122012

12/12/2012 10-yr Bond Auction (0631 HI time / 1131 EST)
Previous: 1.68/2.6
Actual: 1.65/3.0
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’21 (0631)
1st Peak @ 149’00 – 0633 (2 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 148’27 – 0645 (14 min)
5 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped moderately from the previous auction. This caused the ZB to spike long for 11 ticks. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’24 with no slippage. Since it crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot, it was reined in to only 11 ticks and could not reach the PP Pivot at 149’01. Look to exit at 148’30 +/- 1 tick for about 6 ticks. It stayed up at that area for about 8 min, then made a small correction to 148’27 before popping up for a double top again.

ZC 03 13 (1 Min) 12.11.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Dec 112012

12/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 726.50
1st Peak @ 732.00 – 0331 (1 min)
22 ticks

Reversal to 725.50 – 0332 (2 min)
26 ticks

2nd Peak @ 733.75 – 0336 (6 min)
29 ticks

Reversal to 726.25 – 0342 (12 min)
30 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a long spike of 22 ticks, that was unsustainable crossing only the PP Pivot. After hovering for 10 sec, it reversed and surrendered all of the long move, for a 26 tick reversal on the :32 bar. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 15 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 727.75 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with up to 16 ticks as it peaked and hovered at 732.00. The last 2 months reports, we have seen the same trend of a spike, quick reversal, then a 2nd peak of a few more ticks. If this continues, after the quick reversal, look to trade the 2nd peak and place your target 2-5 ticks greater than the 1st peak.

CL 01 13 (2 Range) 12.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072012

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Dec 072012

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(CL)
Started @ 86.28
1st Peak @ 86.89 – 0332 (2 min)
61 ticks

Reversal to 86.07 – 0422 (52 min)
82 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(TF)
Started @ 819.7
1st Peak @ 827.0 – 0333 (3 min)
73 ticks

Reversal to 819.1 – 0501 (91 min)
79 ticks

12/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 89K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 146K
Previous Revision: -33K to 138K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.7%
SPIKE/REVERSE
(ZB)
Started @ 150’19
1st Peak @ 149’16 – 0332 (2 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 149’25 – 0334 (4 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 149’11 – 0344 (14 min)
40 ticks

Reversal to 149’28 – 0407 (37 min)
17 ticks

Notes: Overall positive report with almost 60K jobs more created than anticipated and a drop in the U-3 rate of 0.2%. This drove the markets to bullish reaction with CL and TF rallying, and the ZB falling. Both the CL and the TF peaked on after the :01 bar for 60-70+ ticks, double topped a few min later, then reversed for about 10-20% more ticks than the spike 50-90 min later. As they were already trading above the major SMAs, the CL only crossed the PP Pivot and the HOD, and the TF crossed the PP, R1 Pivots, the HOD, then nearly reached the R2 Pivot. Once again, the ZB outperformed both of the other indexes, falling 35 ticks on the first 2 bars (equivalent of about 105 ticks on the CL or TF), crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin, and the PP – S3 Pivots. I traded the ZB with a 3 tick bracket, filling short at 150’12 with 4 ticks of slippage, then got out early and conservatively with 14 ticks at 149’30. After peaking, it reversed for 9 ticks, then fell for 14 ticks to a 2nd peak at 149’11. The final reversal reclaimed 17 ticks to eclipse the 50 SMA about 35 min after the report.

It is likely the slippage on the CL and TF would have exceeded 10 ticks. I have a few anecdotes from those who traded those and made 15-25 ticks. With the slippage less, and the profit potential much larger on the ZB, that is the recommended index for now.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 12.06.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Dec 062012

12/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -70B
Actual: -73B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.679
1st Peak @ 3.748 – 0531 (1 min)
69 ticks

Reversal to 3.614 – 0639 (69 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Slightly larger loss than was forecast caused a long spike of 69 ticks that crossed only the 200 SMA as it was using the 50 and 100 SMAs for support at the origin. With JOBB, you would have filled long, narrowly avoiding a premature short spike with about 22 ticks of slippage at about 3.711. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-20 ticks as it hovered in the 3.730 area. After achieving the 1st peak, it methodically retreated downward in the next hour for a 134 tick reversal, crossing all of the SMAs and eclipsing the PP Pivot by 23 ticks. After that it rallied again for about 90 ticks in the next 90 min, then continued its overall bearish trend. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 53.6
Actual: 54.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.42
1st Peak @ 88.54 – 0501 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 88.12 – 0513 (13 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Moderately positive report exceeded the forecast by a point. This caused a small long spike of 12 ticks that was unsustainable and could not reach the 200 SMA only 3 ticks higher. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 88.47 with no slippage, then seen it hover around your fill point to a few ticks positive. I placed my exit on the 200 SMA, and when it did not fill, it took my stop loss at 88.43 (moved up to just below the 100 SMA). The rally terminating 20 min before the report could not reach the 200 SMA, falling about 3 ticks short, matching the peak of the report. Then the reversal fell 42 ticks to cross the 100 and 50 SMAs and the PP Pivot to touch the LOD. Then it rebounded upward just before the oil inventory report.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.05.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Dec 052012

12/5/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -0.4M
Actual: -2.4M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.40
1st Peak @ 88.06 – 0531 (1 min)
34 ticks

Reversal to 88.55 – 0536 (6 min)
49 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.46 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Reversal to 88.34 – 0706 (96 min)
88 ticks

Notes: In spite of a moderate drop in crude inventories, gasoline and distillates both saw extremely large gains. This prompted a short move. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 88.29 with 1 tick of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 – 20 ticks as it finished the :31 bar extending the LOD. After the 1st peak, it reversed in the following 5 min as the bulls rallied on the crude #s only, then fell for a rapid and dramatic 2nd peak of nearly 100 ticks. Then it reversed back up to cross all 3 major SMAs and eclipse the PP Pivot in the following hour for 88 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 12.03.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Dec 032012

12/3/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 51.5
Actual: 49.5
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.08
1st Peak @ 89.60 – 0504 (4 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 90.06 – 0531 (31 min)
46 ticks

2nd Peak @ 88.96 – 0611 (71 min)
112 ticks

Reversal to 89.30 – 0631 (91 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Report fell well short of the forecast and fell below 50 again after 2 months of a small recovery. This caused a healthy selloff of 48 ticks in 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs and bottomed at the R2 Pivot. With JOBB, you would have filled short with about 3 ticks of slippage at 89.99, then depending on your level of patience had an opportunity to close out with up to 35 ticks as it eclipsed the R2 Pivot at 89.65. I managed 17 ticks, placing my exit at 89.82 at the 100 SMA. Please see the video on this report for many lessons. The market was overbought in the short term due to the rally of about 150 ticks in the previous 3 hrs. It backed off of the peak before the report, correcting to the 100 SMA, but then rebounded to 20 ticks off of the peak. This enhanced the selling pressure. The reversal was able to reclaim nearly all of the 1st peak in 31 min, crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs for a double top at 90.06. Then it fell for a much larger 2nd peak of 112 ticks to 88.96 in the span of about 30 min, crossing the 200 SMA and the R1 Pivot with ease. After the 2nd peak, it reversed for 34 ticks, to nick the R1 Pivot, then traded sideways.

NG 01 13 (1 Min) 11.29.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 292012

11/29/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -5B
Actual: 4B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.696
1st Peak @ 3.637 – 0531 (1 min)
59 ticks

Reversal to 3.678 – 0535 (5 min)
41 ticks

Reversal to 3.697 – 0641 (71 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Small gain in supply when a small loss was forecast caused a short spike of 59 ticks that crossed the S2 Pivot and fell another 23 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.668. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 15-25 ticks as it hovered below the S2 Pivot. After achieving the 1st peak, it quickly retreated upward for a 41 tick reversal in only 5 min nearing the 13 SMA. Then it tried to go for a 2nd peak, stalled 7 ticks above the 1st peak, and retreated long again to fight through the 50 then the 100 SMA for 60 ticks over an hour later. As the current overall sentiment is very bearish on NG, be careful about getting too greedy on long trades.

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