CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

 Beige Book  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12
Nov 282012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

11/28/2012 FED Beige Book (0900 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION then UPWARD FAN
Started @ 86.23
Traded between 86.16 and 86.29 for 17 min
range of 13 ticks

Final Peak @ 86.74 – 1055 (115 min)
51 ticks

Reversal to 86.57 – 1146 (166 min)
17 ticks

Notes: The Federal Reserve said today that the U.S. economy was expanding at a measured pace last month, even as the northeast and Atlantic states were hurt by hurricane Sandy. Initially the report was stuck in a tight range in the middle of all 3 major SMAs in a tight fist with the S2 Pivot providing a floor at 86.16. After 17 min, the bulls finally broke loose to cause a modest rally of 51 ticks in the next 100 min. With JOBB, you would have cancelled the order after a dull :01 bar. With little movement in the DX it was difficult to discern which way the eventual breakout would go. Once it broke through the technical level of 86.38, it was free to continue moving higher. It eventually eclipsed the S1 Pivot by 6 ticks and could go no higher. The reversal fell only 17 ticks in the following hour as the trade volume dried up late in the US session.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12
Nov 282012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.28.12

11/28/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.3M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 85.69
1st Peak @ 85.51 – 0531 (1 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 85.70 – 0531 (1 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 86.45 – 0556 (26 min)
94 ticks

Notes: Small loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a big gain in gasoline and small drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.53 with 6 ticks of slippage, then seen it head for your stop loss in 3 sec. After the :31 bar settled lower, the long term reaction reversed long for nearly 100 ticks in 25 min, reacting more to the drop in crude and distillates, while also correcting from the big selloff in the last 10 hrs.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

 CB Consumer Confidence  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12
Nov 272012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

11/27/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 73.1
Actual: 73.7
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.84 – 0501 (1 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 87.60 – 0506 (6 min)
24 ticks

Notes: Report barley exceeded the forecast and caused a dull reaction of only 6 ticks. With JOBB you would not have been filled if you had a bracket of 7 or closed out your order after 12-15 sec. Since it was in a short term upward movement that was finding resistance on the 100 SMA with the 200 SMA looming just a few ticks higher, it could not go long without a good driver. After 2 bars of flirting with the 100 SMA, it reversed down to eclipse the 50 SMA and PP Pivot for 24 ticks.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

 Durable Goods  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12
Nov 272012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.27.12

11/27/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: -0.6%
Core Actual: 1.5%
Previous revision: -0.3% to 1.7%
Regular Forecast: -0.6%
Regular Actual: 0.0%
Previous Revision: -0.7% to 9.2%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.01
1st Peak @ 88.20 – 0332 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reverse to 87.79 – 0341 (11 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report came in mostly positive overall with the current reports impressing while the previous revisions were mildly negative. The spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots having just bounced long off of the 50 SMA as support, and was trading in a relatively narrow range with the LOD and HOD only 43 ticks apart. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 88.09 with 1 tick of slippage and had an opportunity to close out with 5-10 ticks on the :32 bar as it approached the HOD. The reversal fought through all 3 SMAs to eclipse the 200 by about 10 ticks, then traded sideways straddling the 200 for about 20 min.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

 Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12
Nov 212012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: 415K
Actual: 410K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 87.78
1st Peak @ 87.46 – 0234 (4 min)
32 ticks

Reversal to 87.65 – 0343 (13 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 87.40 – 0347 (17 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 87.88 – 0408 (38 min)
48 ticks

Notes: Report came in slightly better than the forecast by 5K jobs, but still above the psychologically negative 400K level. The trading community has gotten accustomed to #s in the 350-370 range, so anything north of 400 triggers the bears. This caused a slow developing but large sized short spike of 32 ticks in 4 min that had to cross all 3 SMAs. The PP Pivot had been tested a few times in the previous hour and served as resistance, aiding the selling momentum. With JOBB, you would not have filled on the :31 bar as it stayed in a 4 tick range. It would have been safe to cancel the order as indications of a dull reaction were evident. When it moved short of 87.71, breaking a short term support level, that would be a place where a follow on short entry could be made. Notice that it did not struggle with penetrating the 100 and 200 SMAs. The bars stop and start there, but there is little retracement. It would be safe to close out at or just below the 200. After the 1st peak, it reversed up to the 100 SMA, then achieved a 2nd peak of 6 more ticks. Then it reversed long for 48 ticks in about 20 min through the pit open, fighting through all 3 SMAs, then the PP Pivot for a double top at 87.88.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12
Nov 212012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 0.8M
Actual: -1.5M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 87.54
1st Peak @ 87.68 – 0531 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 87.34 – 0532 (2 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Loss in oil inventories when a small gain was expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 87.64 with no slippage, peak briefly 4 ticks higher, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 14 ticks, it reversed for 34 ticks to hit a short term area of support, then popped back up to just below the 200 SMA. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and lower extremes for the next hour. Relatively low magnitude on the swings, but still presents good opportunities to buy the dips (after the :43 and :05 bars) and sell the rips (any wick just below the 200 SMA) looking for 15 ticks.

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12
Nov 212012
 


NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.21.12

11/21/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report (0700 HI time / 1200 EST)
Forecast: -27B
Actual: -38B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.835
1st Peak @ 3.910 – 0701 (1 min)
75 ticks

Reversal to 3.857 – 0707 (7 min)
53 ticks

Notes: Greater loss in supply than the forecast caused a long spike of 75 ticks that crossed the R1 Pivot and approached the R2 Pivot on the :01 bar. With JOBB, you would have filled long on the spike with about 20 ticks of slippage at about 3.865. Then you would have an opportunity to close out with about 30-40 ticks as it hovered between 3.895 and 3.905. After achieving the 1st peak, it tried to go for a 2nd peak, failed, and retreated quickly to near the 20 SMA for 53 ticks. Then it bounced back up, fell back to hit the 50 SMA, then trended higher. The R2 was at 3.917. I had my sell limit there anticipating a reversal entry, but it never got there, falling short by 7 ticks. I got in much later going short on the R1 and nagging 14 ticks as it touched the 50 SMA.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

 FED Chairman Speeches  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12
Nov 152012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

11/15/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0820 HI time / 1320 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.88
1st Peak @ 85.13 – 0826 (6 min)
25 ticks

Reverse to 84.98 – 0828 (8 min)
15 ticks

2nd Peak @ 85.53 – 0852 (32 min)
65 ticks

Reversal to 85.07 – 0908 (48 min)
46 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke spoke about the challenges to the housing and mortgage markets. Mostly a glim outlook caused a moderate weakening of the dollar and a corresponding rally in oil. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 84.93 with no slippage. If you were patient, you could have exited on the :25 or :26 bars with 7-15 ticks. The market reversed for 15 ticks to close the gap to the 13 SMA , then rallied for a stepping final peak of 65 ticks 32 min after the speech started, nicking the 200 SMA. The reversal reclaimed 46 ticks, bottoming on the 100 SMA 16 min later. Then it chopped higher for a double top and more.

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

 Philly FED Manufacturing Index  Comments Off on CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12
Nov 152012
 


CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

11/15/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 1.1
Actual: -10.7
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.67
1st Peak @ 86.29 – 0502 (2 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 86.77 – 0508 (8 min)
48 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.20 – 0522 (22 min)
47 ticks

Reversal to 86.59 – 0552 (52 min)
39 ticks

Notes: Report strongly fell short of the forecast, causing a short move of 38 ticks over 2 bars. With the short move in the previous 30 min hitting the LOD, then seeing a gap close correction to the 13 SMA prior to the report, the bearish report was prime to drop. It tested the PP Pivot and LOD on the :31 bar, and dipped about 12 ticks below it on the :32 bar. Unable to sustain the drop, it reversed strongly for 48 ticks 6 min later, then dove for a 2nd peak of 47 ticks. With JOBB, your order would have filled at 86.59 with 2 ticks of slippage. I would place a buy limit order between the LOD and the PP Pivot at about 86.43 which would have yielded 16 ticks. The final reversal yielded 39 ticks, peaking just before the Oil inventory report.

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.15.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.15.12
Nov 152012
 


NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.15.12

11/15/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: -13B
Actual: -18B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 3.794
1st Peak @ 3.690 – 0532 (2 min)
104 ticks

Reversal to 3.830 – 0632 (62 min)
140 ticks

Notes: Greater loss in supply than the forecast caused a wrong direction short spike of 104 ticks that crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP and S1 Pivots in 2 bars. With JOBB, you would have filled short on the spike with about 25 ticks of slippage at about 3.760. Then I would target the S1 Pivot for the buy limit exit at 3.707 for a 50+ tick profit. After achieving the 1st peak, it retreated quickly up to the 13 SMA, then traded sideways before challenging the SMAs. It struggled with the 50 SMA much more than the 100/200 SMAs and PP Pivot all on top of each other, then eclipsed the R1 Pivot for 140 ticks total on the reversal.

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