US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 01 13 (1 Min) 11.15.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 152012

11/15/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0600 HI time / 1100 EST)
Forecast: 2.5M
Actual: 1.1M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 86.07
1st Peak @ 86.27 – 0601 (1 min)
20 ticks

Reversal to 85.76 – 0602 (2 min)
51 ticks

Notes: Smaller gain in oil than expected coupled with a small drop in gasoline and large drop in distillates caused an indecisive reaction. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 86.22 with 5 ticks of slippage, then seen it head for your stop loss in 5 sec. If you had been quick, you could have closed out with something less than 15 ticks, but not much. After the long pop of only 20 ticks, it reversed for 51 ticks to hit the LOD, then popped back up for a double top. Then it continued oscillating between the 200 SMA and the LOD with the 50/100 SMAs and PP Pivot in the middle.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.14.12

Retail Sales Comments Off

Nov 142012

11/14/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Core Forecast: 0.2%
Core Actual: 0.0%
Previous revision: +0.1% to 1.2%
Regular Forecast: -0.2%
Regular Actual: -0.3%
Previous Revision: +0.2% to 1.3%
INDECISIVE THEN SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 85.39
1st Peak @ 85.29 – 0331 (1 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 85.49 – 0331 (1 min)
20 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.93 – 0401 (31 min)
46 ticks

Reversal to 85.65 – 0423 (53 min)
72 ticks

Notes: Report was mildly positive on both the core and actual reading offset by a mild upward revision on the previous readings. PPI at the same time and was fairly negative. Since the market was caught in the middle of the SMAs, it initially took a short dive of 10 ticks and ran into the PP Pivot to retrace upward to cross the 50 SMA then hit the 100 SMA. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 85.30 with about 2 ticks of slippage, then likely been stopped out on the retracement. Even with the initial indecision, it found its true direction for a 2nd peak, crossing the PP Pivot, trading mostly sideways, then another drop after the pit open. Then it reversed for 72 ticks in the next 20 min. Given the overall bearish nature of the news and the predictable tendency of a 2nd peak, a secondary short entry in the 85.44 area on the :32-:34 bars would be wise.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 11.09.12

WASDE - Corn Comments Off

Nov 092012

11/9/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0330 HI time / 0830 EST)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 743.25
1st Peak @ 735.75 – 0331 (1 min)
30 ticks

Reversal to 749.00 – 0332 (2 min)
53 ticks

2nd Peak @ 733.50 – 0334 (4 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 743.75 – 0411 (41 min)
41 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a short spike of 30 ticks, that was unsustainable crossing all 3 major SMAs near the origin and the PP – S2 Pivots. After hovering for 15 sec, it reversed and surrendered all of the short move, for a 53 tick long move up to the R2 Pivot, then fell again to match the 1st peak on the :32 bar. Prior to the report, the market had been trading in a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 12 ticks. With JOBB, you would have filled short at 741.50 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with about 20 ticks as it bottomed out below the S2 Pivot where it hovered. It achieved a 2nd peak of 9 more ticks on the :34 bar, then reversed for 41 ticks in the next 37 min, crossing all of the SMAs.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

30y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 082012

11/8/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 2.90/2.5
Actual: 2.82/2.8
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’00 (0801)
1st Peak @ 150’27 – 0802 (1 min)
27 ticks

Final Peak @ 151’13 – 0831 (30 min)
45 ticks

Reversal to 151’00 – 0903 (62 min)
13 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped more than expected from the previous auction, signifying much higher demand for the bonds in lieu of the election results. With JOBB you would fill long at 150’03 with no slippage. The spike crossed all 3 major SMAs at the origin, the PP / R1 Pivots, and HOD at varying points up the spike. Since it blew through all of these potential areas of resistance and finished the bar 1 tick off of the max, stay on the ride until the end and close out with 20 or more ticks. After the 1st peak, it ratcheted higher for the next 30 min, crossing the R2 Pivot and peaking at 151’13 for 45 ticks total. The reversal reclaimed 13 ticks in about half an hour back to the R2 Pivot. By far the best auction trade yet!

NG 12 12 (1 Min) 11.08.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Nov 082012

11/8/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 21B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 3.529
1st Peak @ 3.578 – 0531 (1 min)
49 ticks

Reversal to 3.560 – 0532 (2 min)
18 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.591 – 0538 (8 min)
62 ticks

Reversal to 3.545 – 0618 (48 min)
46 ticks

Notes: Lesser gain in supply compared to what was expected caused a moderate long spike of 49 ticks. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot near the origin then hit its peak at the PP Pivot. After a small reversal of 18 ticks, it geared up for a 2nd peak of 62 ticks total a few min later. The reversal reclaimed 46 ticks in about 40 min crossing the 50 and 100 SMAs, then bottoming out at the S1 Pivot and 200 SMA. With JOBB you would have filled long at about 3.560 with about 20 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 10 ticks as it bobbed near the top of the bar a few times.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 11.07.12

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Nov 072012

11/7/2012 10-yr Bond Auction (0801 HI time / 1301 EST)
Previous: 1.70/3.3
Actual: 1.68/2.6
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 150’18 (0801)
1st Peak @ 150’09 – 0802 (1 min)
9 ticks

2nd Peak @ 150’03 – 0807 (6 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 150’14 – 0815 (14 min)
11 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield dropped moderately from the previous auction. With more demand for the bonds, the yield fell, causing the ZB to spike short. With JOBB you would fill short at 150’15 with no slippage. Look for it to eclipse the 50 SMA and close out with 5 ticks. As it crossed on the 200 and 100 SMAs, this is a good place to enter a reversal trade. It bottomed out at 150’03, 4 ticks lower than the 200 SMA, then reversed to cross the 50 SMA for 11 ticks 8 min later.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.07.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Nov 072012

11/7/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0530 HI time / 1030 EST)
Forecast: 1.8M
Actual: 1.8M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 86.18
1st Peak @ 85.58 – 0533 (3 min)
60 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.80 – 0601 (31 min)
138 ticks

Reversal to 85.54 – 0611 (41 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Matching report with caused a short move after a long correction happened prior to the report release. The dollar was rallying significantly causing the overall bearish sentiment. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 86.02 with 6 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to get about 10 ticks or more as it hovered at near 85.90. It continued lower to hit a 1st peak of 60 ticks on the :03 bar, then traded sideways for 7 min. After achieving a 2nd peak to nick the R2 Pivot at 84.80 for 138 ticks, it reversed for 74 ticks just above the 50 SMA.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.05.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Nov 052012

11/5/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0500 HI time / 1000 EST)
Forecast: 54.6
Actual: 54.2
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 85.04
1st Peak @ 85.12 – 0501 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 84.87 – 0507 (7 min)
25 ticks

Notes: Mildly positive report exceeded the forecast. The minimal offset from the forecast would not have filled a 5 tick buffer on JOBB until 40 sec into the bar, so you should have cancelled the order when it did not fill. If you did not, you would have filled at 85.09 then had a brief opportunity for only 2 ticks, then seen it retreat lower to bounce between a 10 tick loss and 1-2 tick profit. The presence of all 3 major SMAs kept the reaction restrained in a 25 tick range, 10 ticks above the highest SMA and 10 ticks below the lowest SMA. This is the first non-profitable instance of this report in 15 months, but would have been a push if you cancelled out.

CL 12 12 (1 Min) 11.02.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 022012

11/2/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 123K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 171K
Previous Revision: +34K to 148K
Rate Forecast: 7.9%
Rate Actual: 7.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 86.40
1st Peak @ 87.10 – 0231 (1 min)
70 ticks

Reversal to 86.54 – 0232 (2 min)
56 ticks

Extended Reversal to 85.27 – 0449 (139 min)
183 ticks

Notes: After the October surprise, this report corrected somewhat, but a large correction is still likely in the future. Nearly 50k more jobs were created than the forecast, with a forecast matching rate, but an uptick of 0.1% from October. The market initially reacted long on the jobs news in the first bar, crossing the PP Pivot and peaking 5 ticks above the HOD for 70 ticks. Then it pulled back strongly to the 13 SMA for 56 ticks. It tried to climb again for a 2nd peak, but could go no higher than 87.03, 7 ticks off the 1st peak. Then it began an epic reversal reacting to the uptick in the rate for 183 ticks over the next 2 hrs.
With JOBB, your long order would have filled at about 86.57 with about 7 ticks of slippage. If you look at the range chart you will notice it initially jumped up about 70 ticks, hit its peak instantaneously, then proceeded to chop lower to the end of the bar. I would setup a sell limit at or just above the PP Pivot (86.86 – 86.90). It would have popped up to 86.95 at 20-25 sec into the candle and allowed your order to be filled with about 30 ticks of profit.

CL 12 12 (2 Range) 11.02.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Nov 022012

Older Entries Newer Entries