US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 09.12.12

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Sep 122012

09/12/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0531 HI time / 1131 EDT)
Previous: 2.83/2.4
Actual: 2.90/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 148’00 (0531)
1st Peak @ 148’09 – 0533 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 148’01 – 0534 (3 min)
8 ticks

2nd Peak @ 148’14 – 0630 (29 min)
14 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the bottom of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose minimally from the previous auction, continuing the rise off of the low in July. With less demand for the bonds, the yield rose, causing the ZB to spike long from sitting on the 100 SMA. With JOBB you would fill long at 148’03. With the HOD established about 90 min earlier at 148’09, keep an eye on it as it approaches that threshold. As the :02 bar bounced off of 148’08 and the :03 bar garnered 1 more tick to touch the HOD, exit around 148’08 if possible for about 5 ticks. The resistance at 148’09 is strong as it caused the reversal nearly back to the 100 SMA. Then it oscillated between 148’01 and 148’06 for 30 min before trending higher. It hit a 2nd peak at 148’14 at the R2 Pivot right before the FED announced open ended QE3 which caused a nosedive. I did not list the final reversal due to the large move and lack of association to the auction.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.12.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 122012

9/12/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.8M
Actual: 2.0M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 97.25
1st Peak @ 97.44 / Reverse to 96.31 / Settle @ 97.01 – 0431 (1 min)
19 ticks / -113 ticks / 70 ticks

Notes: Moderate gain in inventory when a similar loss was expected caused a violent and whipsawing reaction. This happens about once every 4 months it seems. With JOBB setting up at about :55 seconds, you would have filled long on a 20 tick premature spike before the report, then rapidly stopped out on the violent reversal less than 1 sec later. With a top to bottom range of over 100 ticks and heavy volume, it would be a good strategy to set up a trap trade in the aftermath just inside of the top and bottom of the range. It never got close to either area again, so cancel that after about 10 min. The premature spike crossed the 50 / 200 SMAs and the R1 Pivot, then the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs, the PP / S1 Pivots, before bouncing off support on the S2 Pivot.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.11.12

Trade Balance Comments Off

Sep 112012

9/11/2012 Monthly Trade Balance (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: -44.2B
Actual: -42.0B
Previous Revision: +1.0B to -41.9B
Spike / RETRACE
Started @ 96.69
1st Peak @ 96.51 – 0232 (2 min)
18 ticks

Reversal to 96.79 – 0234 (4 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report mildly exceeded the forecast with the narrowest deficit in over a year, coupled with a moderate previous report upward revision. The market had been trading sideways and seesawing on either side of the all 3 major SMAs for several hours. The short move was due to the rallying of the dollar, with the support found close to the same level that was tested 3 times earlier in the last 2 hrs. The down spike also crossed all 3 major SMAs then the reversal recovered more than he drop to hit resistance near the previous high 25 min earlier. With JOBB you would not have seen any movement until about 15 sec after the report was released. This is cause to cancel the order in lieu of a possible dull reaction. If you did not, you would have filled short at 96.62 with no slippage, just above the 200 SMA. Knowing that it did drop lower earlier and it only gave you a few ticks so far, I would try to eke out 5-7 ticks and move my stop loss to the 50 SMA. With that strategy you would get out with a handful of ticks.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) DX 12 12 (5 Min) 09.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 072012

9/7/2012 Monthly Unemployment Report (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Non Farm Jobs Forecast: 123K
Non Farm Jobs Actual: 96K
Previous Revision: -22K to 141K
Rate Forecast: 8.3%
Rate Actual: 8.1%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.87
1st Peak @ 95.39 – 0235 (5 min)
48 ticks

Reversal to 96.59 – 0247 (17 min)
120 ticks

2nd Peak @ 94.09 – 0352 (82 min)
178 ticks (from origin)/250 ticks (from Reversal top)

Reversal to 96.74 – 0702 (272 min)
265 ticks

Notes: DX index is superimposed in blue and gold to show its effect. Initially perceived as a mixed report but quickly the internals revealed a very negative report with only 96K jobs created, while the rate ticked down 0.2% and the previous report was downgraded 22K jobs. The drop in the rate was attributed to nearly 400K people leaving the work force, so once again this was very poor news for an economy trying to recover. The market initially shorted for 48 ticks in 5 min, then reversed for 120 ticks 12 min later due to the dollar drop. Trading sideways until the pit open at 0300, it dove 250 ticks in about an hour. Then as the dollar began to drop significantly on the news, the CL rallied for about 3 hours from 0352 to 0702 for 265 ticks. The initial spike crossed no SMAs or Pivots, then the reversal crossed all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot. The 2nd Peak fanned downward to cross all 3 major SMAs and the S1 Pivot with ease, then did not challenge the 13 SMA much until after the pinnacle. Then the last reversal crossed everything on the upward rebound, driven by the dollar. With JOBB, you would have filled short at about 95.73 with about 7 ticks of slippage. Watching the range chart, I would place a buy limit at 95.55 after it hovered between 95.53 and 95.61 for several seconds. It did continue lower gradually on the next 4 bars, but that is not typical behavior for this report. The reversal was abnormally strong but reacted to the fall of the dollar of 0.42. As the dollar went sideways until 0400, oil dropped strongly. Then the dollar fell another 0.30 from 0400 to 0500 which caused oil to rally until 0700. If you are savvy, you can watch the dollar and place trend trades on the CL for 50+ ticks conservatively in these scenarios as the CL reacts inversely.

CL 10 12 (2 Range) 09.07.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Sep 072012

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0500 HI time / 1100 EDT)
Forecast: -4.9M
Actual: -7.4M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 97.36
1st Peak @ 97.71 – 0501 (1 min)
35 ticks

Reversal to 96.83 – 0509 (9 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Large loss of inventory when a lesser loss was expected caused a moderate long spike for 35 ticks in 1 min that could not go higher or sustain the rise due to the very short term overbought condition in the market. With the R3 looming about 20 ticks above the top of the wick, even the bullish report could not motivate the bulls to keep buying. With JOBB, you would have filled long with minimal slippage at about 97.47, then had an opportunity to close out with about 17 ticks as it hovered just below the top of the wick for about 6 seconds. The market was already trading above all 3 major SMAs at the report release and strongly higher than the R2 Pivot. After the spike on the :01 bar, it reversed strongly for 88 ticks crossing the 100 and 50 SMAs in 8 min. Then it tried to muster the bulls for another rally, but barely eclipsed the 100 and 50 SMAs before succumbing to the resistance.

NG 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 40B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 2.823
1st Peak @ 2.866 – 0431 (1 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 2.778 – 0448 (18 min)
88 ticks

Notes: Smaller than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a medium sized long spike that ran into a brick wall at the R2 Pivot after crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it left most of the :31 bar wick naked and crashed further. The market was likely overbought in the very short term, and hitting the R2 Pivot was a catalyst for selling. With JOBB, after 10 ticks of slippage, you would have filled long at about 2.843 then had an opportunity to close as it slowly backed off of the R2 Pivot after hitting it twice for about 12 or so ticks. The reversal chopped lower, easily crossing the PP Pivot and 50 SMA, then struggling through the 100 and 200 SMA for 88 ticks in about 18 min.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 369K
Actual: 365K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 96.34
1st Peak @ 96.50 – 0231 (1 min)
16 ticks

Reversal to 96.07 – 0233 (3 min)
43 ticks

Notes: Report came in mildly better than the forecast by only 4K jobs. With little impetus from the claims, most of the reaction was due to the ECB press conference happening at the same time to influence the EURO and $ strength. The initial spike crossed all 3 major SMAs then hit the R2 Pivot to fall from the resistance. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 96.41 with no slippage, then had an opportunity to close with a handful of ticks in the next 15 sec before the market fell. The initial press conference prepared statement and the follow on Q and A drove the choppy trading in the next 45 min.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.06.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 062012

9/6/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.5
Actual: 53.7
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 97.11
1st Peak @ 97.23 – 0401 (1 min)
12 ticks

2nd Peak @ 97.36 – 0405 (5 min)
25 ticks

Reversal to 97.14 – 0407 (7 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. Since the ECB had dominated the news in the previous 2+ hrs with bullish news, the market was in a very short term overbought condition. This restrained the long move. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 97.17. Since this report often peaks after the :01 bar and it was fairly positive, I would stay in until 4-5 min, looking to exit with 15-20 ticks. After the 2nd peak yielded 25 ticks, the reversal took 2 bars to recapture 22 ticks.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 09.04.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Sep 042012

9/4/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.0
Actual: 49.6
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 95.99
1st Peak @ 95.88 – 0401 (1 min)
11 ticks

Reversal to 96.16 – 0403 (3 min)
28 ticks

Final Peak @ 95.12 – 0450 (50 min)
87 ticks

Reversal to 95.66 – 0513 (73 min)
54 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating a small contraction for the third month in a row, but the sharpest contraction in 4 yrs. This initially caused a dullish reaction of only 11 ticks, that quickly bounced back long into a 28 tick reversal on the :03 bar as it hit the S2 Pivot. After the gravity of the report was digested, the market dove into a bearish fan, shorting for 87 ticks in about 45 min. With JOBB, you would have filled short with no slippage at 95.02, then had an opportunity to close with 2-3 ticks as it hovered in the 95.90 area. The market was probably oversold in the very short term due to the drop of over 100 ticks in the previous 2 hrs, and 60 ticks in the previous 25 min. This prevented the initial spike from falling more and reduced the overall magnitude of the secondary fall. The secondary drop crossed the S2 Pivot then found support in the 95.12 area which held after 2 more attempts to penetrate. The reversal was able to reclaim 54 ticks in about 23 min.

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