US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 08.08.12

10y Bond Auction Comments Off

Aug 082012

08/08/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.58/2.7
Actual: 2.83/2.4
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 148’14 (0701)
1st Peak @ 148’05 – 0702 (1 min)
9 ticks

Reversal to 149’08 – 0751 (50 min)
35 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield rose strongly from the previous auction, to rise off of the multi-year low in July. With lessening demand for the bonds, the yield rose, and should have caused the ZB to spike long but it went short first and then reversed in the direction it should have originally gone. With JOBB you would fill short at 148’11 right on the LOD. Since it was trading close to the LOD before the auction and you have the S2 Pivot sitting just below, wait and see how it behaves as it interacts with the S2 Pivot. As it hit bottom at 148’05, 3 ticks below the S2, then bounced up, exit around 148’06 with about 5 ticks. The reversal was able to cross all 3 major SMAs and the s1 Pivot to peak at 149’08 50 min after the auction for 35 ticks. Since it went short first erroneously, this propelled it long and would have made an ideal trade.

CL 10 12 (1 Min) 08.06.12

FED Chairman Speeches Comments Off

Aug 062012

8/6/2012 FED Chairman Bernanke Speech (0300 HI time / 0900 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 91.11
Peak @ 91.02 / Retrace to 91.15 – 0401 (1 min)
-9 ticks / 4 ticks

Notes: Nothing shocking to the market enough to cause a significant reaction. In this case the JOBB would not have filled after 10 sec, so cancel the order. If you did not cancel before you got filled, then move the stop in tightly and try to close with a small profit or loss (3-5 ticks).

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.03.12

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 032012

8/3/2012 Monthly ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 52.1
Actual: 52.6
Previous Revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 90.12
1st Peak @ 90.79 – 0403 (3 min)
67 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.84 – 0416 (16 min)
72 ticks

Reversal to 90.50 – 0420 (20 min)
34 ticks

Notes: Positive report moderately exceeded the forecast. This added fuel to the overall 450 tick rally from the Unemployment report earlier to seek out a peak of 67 ticks in 3 min. With JOBB you would have filled on the long entry at about 90.25. Since this report often peaks in after the :01 bar and it broke through the previous high of 90.31 with ease, I would stay in and place a sell limit at the R3 Pivot at 90.65. That would have given you 40 ticks on the :02 bar and it still yielded another 14 ticks and 19 ticks on the 2nd peak. The reversal fell through the R3 Pivot but only fell to 90.50.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 032012

CL 09 12 (2 Range) 08.03.12

Unemployment Non-Farm Monthly Comments Off

Aug 032012

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 375K
Actual: 365K
DULL REACTION
Started @ 89.25
1st Peak @ 89.63 – 0233 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 88.84 – 0238 (8 min)
79 ticks

Notes: Report came in better than the forecast by 10K jobs. Since traders were waiting on the tea leaves from the ECB press conference, this caused a muted :31 bar followed by a large spike on the :32 and :33 bars for 38 ticks due to a drop in the dollar. When the ECB conference disappointed, the dollar rallied strongly causing oil to selloff. This had little to do with the unemployment claims, but occurred at the same time and caused the nosedive from :37 bar to about an hour later. I only gave credit for the reversal to the tail on the :38 bar just above the PP Pivot, since it bounced from there and the claims influence was little if anything after that point.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

Factory Orders Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Monthly Factory Orders (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: -0.2% to 0.5%
SPIKE / REVERSAL
Started @ 87.69
Peak @ 87.25 – 0405 (5 min)
44 ticks

Reversal to 87.67 – 0409 (9 min)
42 ticks

Notes: Very negative report fell short of the forecast coupled with a small downward revision to the previous report. This caused a short spike of 44 ticks in 5 minute that crossed the 50 SMA and bounced off of the S2 Pivot. Since the market had sold off about $2.50 in the last 90 min following the disappointing ECB press conference, the market was fairly oversold. With such a negative report, it was still able to fall. Then the reversal reclaimed 42 ticks in 4 min, before rallying for many more ticks over a longer period of time to correct the longer term oversold status. Very east report to capture about 30 ticks if you are patient and exit after the :04 large red bar.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 08.02.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Aug 022012

8/2/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 22B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 3.089
1st Peak @ 2.956 – 0431 (1 min)
133 ticks

Reversal to 3.020 – 0455 (25 min)
64 ticks

Notes: Greater than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large short spike over 2 bars. This was the second largest 1st peak in the last 6 months. The market was in a downtrend before the report, so all of the SMAs were above the market action. The spike only crossed the S2 Pivot, with no other point of support in sight, even cutting through the 3.000 level with ease. The reversal reclaimed 64 ticks in 25 min before it slowly fell to seek out a double bottom.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

ISM Manufacturing PMI Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Monthly ISM Manufacturing PMI (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 50.3
Actual: 49.8
Previous revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 88.50
1st Peak @ 88.43 – 0401 (1 min)
7 ticks

Reversal to 88.74 – 0406 (6 min)
31 ticks

Notes: Report fell slightly short of the forecast and came in below the threshold of 50 indicating a small contraction for the second month in a row. This caused a 7 tick short spike that should not have filled your JOBB order. After the initial spike did not fill and nothing in the next 10 or so seconds fills, close out and cancel the order. It appears the initial short spike could not go lower than the 20 SMA, indicating little bearish influence from the report. After the :02 -:04 bars chopped up and down, the reversal yielded a healthy 31 ticks to slice through the PP Pivot and peak at 88.73.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

FOMC Statement Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 FOMC Statement / FED Funds Rate (0815 HI time / 1415 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.88 (0813)
1st Peak @ 87.92 – 0815 (2 min)
96 ticks

Reversal to 89.26 – 0824 (11 min)
134 ticks

Notes: Report released 2 min early, but the FED largely continued their theme of inaction, leaving current policy unchanged and not hinting at new policy changes in the future saying “wait until the fall”. This caused a large short spike of nearly 100 ticks slicing through the PP Pivot as the dollar rallied, having priced in easing action by the FED, but not getting any. The bears could not sustain the selling as nearly 60 ticks were left on the tail of the :15 bar. After chopping sideways for 5 min, the market rallied to peak at 134 ticks on the reversal on the :24 bar, corresponding to a correction from the rally on the dollar. The reversal was restrained by crossing all 3 major SMAs.

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