US Reports | JO Bracket Breakout

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 08.01.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Aug 012012

8/1/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -1.5M
Actual: -6.5M
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 88.63
1st Peak @ 89.20 – 0431 (1 min)
57 ticks

Reversal to 88.27 – 0514 (44 min)
93 ticks

Notes: Much bigger loss of inventory than expected caused a healthy long spike for 57 ticks in 1 min. With JOBB, you would have filled long at about 88.78, then had an opportunity to get at least 30 ticks or more with ease. All the SMAs were below the trading action, so the spike did not cross any barriers. The reversal chopped lower, crossing all 3 major SMAs and the PP Pivot, andfinally reaching a low of 88.27 about 45 min after the report.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.31.12

CB Consumer Confidence Comments Off

Jul 312012

7/31/2012 Monthly CB Consumer Confidence (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: 61.5
Actual: 65.9
Previous revision: +0.7 to 62.7
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.55
1st Peak @ 89.65 – 0402 (2 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 88.40 – 0408 (8 min)
125 ticks

Notes: Report exceeded the forecast with a small upward revision to the previous report. This caused a small long spike that had to fight through the 50 SMA near the origin for only 10 ticks, then surrendered and fell precipitously for 125 ticks in the next 7 min crossing the S1 and S2 Pivots, bottoming out at 88.40. The market was in a down trend prior to the report, but had been able to fend off the bears for the last hour as the traders waited on the economic news. Then the CB report came in better than expected, but not enough to bring the bulls back. This resulted in the small spike, then the downtrend resumed again with strong conviction. This is a case where you have to be careful and close out with a small profit or loss as the JOBB fills long, but do not let the market hit your stop loss as you rely on hope for the long move to reengage.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.27.12

Advance GDP Comments Off

Jul 272012

7/27/2012 Quarterly Advance GDP (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 1.5%
Actual: 1.5%
Previous Revision: -0.3% to 1.9%
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 89.89
1st Peak@ 90.03 – 0231 (1 min)
14 ticks

Reversal to 89.29 – 0250 (20 min)
74 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast and produced an overall long term indecisive reaction that resulted in a seesaw above and below the 200 SMA for over 90 min. I categorized it as a SPIKE/REVERSE because it adheres to that model and then repeats it several times. Even though it matched the forecast, the forecast of only 1.5% GDP growth over a year is very dismal. A healthy economy should have a minimum of 3-3.5% and a recovering economy should be 4-5% or more. When you see the initial long reaction on the :31 bar with a matching poor forecast, do not stay in long. Look to get a few ticks and move your stop loss up to breakeven. After the initial rise, it chopped lower fighting through all of the SMAs and the PP Pivot to drop to 89.29 in 20 min. Then it climbed back to above the 3 SMAs and continued oscillating. If you look at the DX index for this time period, the trend followed the inverse of the CL, hitting a peak on the 02:50 bar then falling after that for 90 min (04:23 peak) and going sideways. With a heavy economic report like this, keep an eye on the DX to dictate what oil will do.

NG 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 262012

7/26/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 26B
Actual: 26B
INDECISIVE
Started @ 3.072
1st Peak @ 3.041 / Retrace to 3.100 – 0431 (1 min)
-31 ticks / 28 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.111 – 0439 (9 min)
39 ticks

Reversal to 3.000 – 0513 (43 min)
111 ticks

Notes: Exactly matching report caused a double wicker spanning nearly 60 ticks on the :31 bar. It then went for a 2nd peak 11 ticks higher than the wick of the :31 bar, fighting through all 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot in a tight fist between the 3.076 and 3.081 area. Then we saw a large reversal fight through the same barriers and head down to eclipse the S1 Pivot and bottom out at the psychological level of 3.000 about 30 min after the 2nd peak. With a double wicker, a good play is too look to trap trade a breakout from the hi/lo of the :31 bar. In this case place a short entry at about 3.105 with a stop 15 ticks above, then flatten the order when it goes lower than 3.040 (the bottom of the :31 bar).

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.26.12

Durable Goods Comments Off

Jul 262012

7/26/2012 Monthly Durable Goods Orders (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -1.1%
Previous revision: +0.4% to 0.8%
Regular Forecast: 0.4%
Regular Actual: 1.6%
Previous Revision: +0.5% to 1.6%
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 89.64
1st Peak @ 89.89 – 0231 (1 min)
25 ticks

2nd Peak @ 90.44 – 0238 (8 min)
80 ticks

Reverse to 89.84 – 0305 (35 min)
60 ticks

Notes: Report came in mixed, falling short on the core reading with upward revisions to the previous reports while exceeding expectations on the regular reading. Unemployment claims also broke at the same time with a strongly positive reading. The aggregate of the news was bullish, causing the initial spike and 2nd peak. The 1st peak ran into the R1 Pivot and retraced on the :32 bar. The negative core reading and the R1 Pivot caused the red bar. Then the market was able to rally again for a 2nd peak of 80 ticks by the :38 bar. After a double top, the reversal was able to achieve 60 ticks on the :05 bar, 35 min after the report. With JOBB, you could have made 12 ticks on the initial spike. When the :32 and :33 bars did not drop below the 100 SMA, that is a great setup for a long entry for the 2nd peak. Exit after the long green bar at :36 before you get a correction.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.25.12

Oil Inventory Comments Off

Jul 252012

7/25/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: -0.1M
Actual: 2.7M
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 88.48
1st Peak @ 87.60 – 0434 (4 min)
88 ticks

2nd Peak @ 86.84 – 0506 (36 min)
164 ticks

Reversal to 87.49 – 0540 (70 min)
65 ticks

Notes: Healthy gain in supply when a tiny drop was expected caused a healthy downward spike and 2nd peak. With the market already selling off, the report went with the grain and continued the momentum. The 50 SMA was crossed at the origin, and the PP/S1 Pivots were also crossed enroute to the 1st peak. The 2nd peak eclipsed the S2 Pivot to bottom out at 86.84 in 36 min, then the reversal reclaimed 65 ticks 34 min later crossing the 50. With JOBB, I would have gotten out on 0434 bar with about 70 ticks on the board.

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

NG Storage Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 34B
Actual: 28B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.934
1st Peak @ 3.015 – 0431 (1 min)
81 ticks

Reversal to 2.971 – 0433 (3 min)
44 ticks

2nd Peak @ 3.032 – 0437 (7 min)
98 ticks

Reversal to 2.943 – 0444 (14 min)
89 ticks

Notes: Less than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large long spike and 2nd peak with a large quick acting reversal. All 3 SMAs and the PP Pivot were crossed near the origin. After a retracement for 44 ticks on the :33 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another 17 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :37 bar. Then the reversal achieved 89 in a relatively quick 7 min, before bouncing higher again off of all 3 SMAs.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

Philly FED Manufacturing Index Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Monthly Philly FED Manufacturing Index (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: -7.9
Actual: -12.9
Previous revision: n/a
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 92.03
1st Peak @ 91.65 – 0403 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 91.89 – 0405 (5 min)
24 ticks

2nd Peak @ 91.60 – 0414 (14 min)
43 ticks

Reversal to 92.04 – 0431 (31 min)
44 ticks

Notes: Report fell moderately short of the forecast causing a healthy short spike, that eclipsed the 50 SMA. It then reversed for 24 ticks, bouncing off of the 50 SMA, but was able to carve out a 2nd peak for 5 more ticks to just above the 100 SMA before reversing for 44 ticks. The overall trend before the report was bullish, so even with a negative report, the reversal reclaimed all of the drop from the initial reaction. Then the market continued higher in the long run. With JOBB this would have been a great setup to take at least 12 ticks on the :01 bar and at least 20 if you rode it to the 50 SMA.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.19.12

Unemployment Weekly Comments Off

Jul 192012

7/19/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 367K
Actual: 386K
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 91.50
1st Peak @ 91.24 – 0234 (4 min)
26 ticks

Reversal to 91.52 – 0242 (12 min)
28 ticks

Notes: Report came in considerably worse than the forecast by nearly 20K jobs. This caused a short spike of 26 ticks drawn out over 4 bars that crossed the 50 and 100 SMAs, and sought out the 200 SMA. Then it reversed for 28 ticks to the level before the report was released on the :42 bar. The short move that started on the :49 bar may have been a 2nd peak, but the influence of jobless claims is normally only felt on the spikes until a max of 15 min, so I conservatively left it off. With JOBB, your order would have filled short. If you exited at the 100 SMA, that would have been a wise and safe move for minimal gain, but when it did not retrace above the 100 SMA, it has conviction to drop. Then the 200 SMA is an ideal exit.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

Beige Book Comments Off

Jul 182012

7/18/2012 FED Beige Book (0800 HI time / 1400 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 90.07
1st Peak@ 90.26 – 0804 (4 min)
19 ticks

Reversal to 90.00 – 0812 (12 min)
26 ticks (2x bottom)

Notes: Report was satisfactory and tame overall showing modest to moderate growth in most sectors, with slowing growth in a few others. This caused a muted reaction overall. Since the market was in a choppy pattern before the report broke, it continued in to exhibit the same behavior with little impetus to deviate. At the release it continued its rise from the low of 89.84 before the report to achieve a peak of 19 ticks at 90.26 on the :04 bar, crossing the R1 Pivot. Then it fell to 90.00, crossing the R1 Pivot, the 50 SMA, and bouncing off of the 100 SMA. Then it chopped sideways for 2 hrs between the R1 Pivot and the 200 SMA until it climbed above the R1 Pivot late in the trading day. Not a great setup for JOBB, it would have the appearance of a dull report, barely filling and failing to launch. Still it would have been good for a handful of ticks. The long wicks and tails signal lack of conviction and heavy HFT influence.

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