CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

 Oil Inventory  Comments Off on CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12
Jul 182012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

7/18/2012 Weekly Crude Oil Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 0.5M
Actual: -0.8M
INDECISIVE
Started @ 89.69
1st Peak @ 89.87 / Retrace to 89.63 – 0431 (1 min)
18 ticks / -6 ticks

2nd Peak @ 89.31 – 0433 (3 min)
38 ticks

Reversal to 90.32 – 0458 (28 min)
101 ticks

Notes: Small loss of inventory when a small gain was expected. The close proximity to the 0 line and the small margin caused indecision. The :31 bar was indecisive, then the market briefly dropped to cross all 3 major SMAs before reversing on the :33 bar to shoot up for 101 ticks in 25 min. With gasoline numbers dropping, along with the crude, and the dollar notching lower, the market rallied strongly. With JOBB, you would have gotten in long at about 80.82, and had little opportunity for profit before it retraced down to 80.63 below the stop loss.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

 FED Testimony  Comments Off on CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12
Jul 182012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.18.12

7/18/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE / REVERSE
Started @ 89.67
Peak @ 89.46 – 0401 (1 min)
23 ticks

Reverse to 89.79 – 0406 (6 min)
35 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the House Financial Services Committee (day 2). Do not trade day 2 with JOBB. In this case, most of the air was let out of the balloon on the previous day testimony before the Senate Banking Committee and nothing surprising transpired in the Q & A. The span of :00 to :07 bars was a replay of what happened the day before on a much smaller scale. After the :08 bar, it traded sideways staying afloat on the 50 SMA until the oil inventory report took over to influence the market.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

 FED Testimony  Comments Off on CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12
Jul 172012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 06.17.12

7/17/2012 FED Testimony (0400 HI time / 1000 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
DOWNWARD FAN
Started @ 89.21
1st Peak @ 88.92 – 0401 (1 min)
29 ticks

Final Peak @ 87.71 – 0443 (43 min)
150 ticks

Reverse to 89.76 – 0731 (211 min)
205 ticks

Notes: FED Chair Bernanke Testifies on the semi-annual monetary policy report before the Senate Banking Committee. Chmn Bernanke initially reported that the FED would not interject any new stimulus, the economy is in a poor state of health, and nothing the FED could do would help the situation. As the markets had already priced in some stimulus action from the FED, the dollar rallied strongly causing the oil to crash. Then at :45 min after the report, during the Q & A session, Bernanke stated that stimulus was not off the table and may be implemented in the near future. This caused the Hopium to return, reversing the trend of the first 45 min to cause the dollar to crasch and oil to rally for the next 2 hrs and 45 min. With JOBB, the first bar spike of 29 ticks would have easily generated a profit. It crossed the 200 SMA, but everything else was above the price action. If you stayed in, the next bar was unable to close above the 200 SMA, then you could exit at either the :22 area where it crossed the 20 or at the :46 bar after the sustained drop then support encountered at the 87.80 level. The reversal claimed over 200 ticks in almost 3 hrs, encountering moderate resistance at each SMA, then eventually climbing above the R1 Pivot to peak just below 90.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

 Industrial Production  Comments Off on CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12
Jul 172012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.17.12

7/17/2012 Monthly Industrial Production (0315 HI time / 0915 EDT)
Forecast: 0.4%
Actual: 0.4%
Previous revision: -0.1% to -0.2%
DULL REACTION
Started @ 89.45
1st Peak @ 89.36 – 0317 (2 min)
9 ticks

Reverse to 89.54 – 0326 (11 min)
18 ticks

Notes: Report matched the forecast, and the previous report was revised slightly downward. This caused a dull reaction and with no impetus to react from the report. Close out JOBB after 10 seconds with no fill or decisive move.

CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12

 Retail Sales  Comments Off on CL 09 12 (1 Min) 07.16.12
Jul 162012
 


CL 09 12 (1 Min) 06.17.12

7/16/2012 Monthly Retail Sales (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Core Forecast: 0.1%
Core Actual: -0.4%
Previous revision: n/a
Regular Forecast: 0.1%
Regular Actual: -0.5%
Previous Revision: n/a
DULL REACTION
Started @ 86.88
1st Peak @ 86.80 – 0231 (1 min)
8 ticks

Reversal to 87.02 – 0234 (4 min)
22 ticks

Notes: Report was strongly negative, falling short of the forecast across the board with no previous report revision. Empire State Manufacturing broke at the same same and was moderately positive. Normally the aggregate of bearish news would cause a strong short move, but 2 factors prevented that. 1) There was strong support in the 86.80 area that had been tested several times in the previous 12 hrs without failing, and 2) the news was so negative that the dollar fell precipitously for 30 minutes thus mitigating the bearish sentiment on oil. With JOBB you may have filled at the lower limit or missed the spike by 1 tick with slippage. In either case, when it fails to shoot downward after the initial drop, close out. The reversal reclaimed 22 ticks in 4 min, bouncing off of the 86.80 level and stalling just above the 200 SMA after crossing all 3 major SMAs. As the dollar continued to fall for an hour after the report release, we saw a rally on the CL for nearly 100 ticks coinciding.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

 30y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12
Jul 122012
 


CL 12 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

07/12/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.4
Actual: 2.58/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’06 (0701)
1st Peak @ 152’12 – 0703 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 152’05 – 0709 (8 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 152’16 – 0730 (29 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 152’10 – 0750 (49 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 2.58 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. This caused a relatively tame reaction for the bonds, as the yield rose by only 6 ticks peaking at the start of the :03 bar. With JOBB you would fill long at 152’09, just above the 200/100 SMAs, then have seen arresting upward movement as it stalled 2 ticks above the fill. With the HOD 1 tick higher, the next bar rose to touch it, then fell. Close out with 1-3 ticks as it flirts with the HOD. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the origin, then traded sideways before the :28 – :30 bars climbed to a 2nd peak of only 10 ticks. The reversal was able to retreat to the 50 SMA for 6 ticks before rising again. All in all a relatively dull auction even with the record low yield.

CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

 Unemployment Weekly  Comments Off on CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12
Jul 122012
 


CL 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

7/12/2012 Weekly Unemployment Claims (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: 376K
Actual: 350K
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 84.66
1st Peak @ 84.78 – 0231 (1 min)
12 ticks

Reversal to 84.59 – 0233 (3 min)
19 ticks

2nd Peak @ 84.81 – 0239 (9 min)
15 ticks

Reversal to 84.47 – 0243 (13 min)
34 ticks (3x bottom)

Notes: Report came in better than expected with 350K when 376K was expected. This was a 4-year low on the raw data and face of it, but when the seasonal factors were considered, it muted the enthusiasm. The reading came in artificially low due to the 4th of July holiday. It falls into the category of a 2nd peak, but really is a dull report with only 15 ticks on a 2nd peak. The initial spike of 12 ticks eclipsed the 200 SMA, then fell to touch the 50 SMA, then climbed for a 2nd peak 3 ticks above the initial peak just above the 200 SMA. The reversal was strong to go for a triple bottom at the 84.47 level from an hour earlier.

NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

 NG Storage  Comments Off on NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12
Jul 122012
 


NG 08 12 (1 Min) 07.12.12

7/12/2012 Weekly Natural Gas Inventory Report (0430 HI time / 1030 EDT)
Forecast: 27B
Actual: 33B
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 2.860
1st Peak @ 2.730 – 0431 (1 min)
130 ticks

Reversal to 2.784 – 0434 (4 min)
54 ticks

2nd Peak @ 2.720 – 0442 (12 min)
140 ticks

Reversal to 2.853 – 0555 (85 min)
133 ticks

Notes: Greater than expected gain in supply from the forecast caused a large short spike and 2nd peak with a large but slow developing reversal. All 3 SMAs were crossed near the origin, then the PP Pivot was crossed about halfway down the :31 bar and the S1 Pivot was crossed near the bottom. After a retracement for 54 ticks on the :34 bar, the 2nd peak claimed another 10 ticks beyond the initial spike on the :42 bar. Then the reversal achieved 133 ticks over an hour later after going sideways for 45 min just above the S1 Pivot and on the 50 SMA.

ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

 WASDE - Corn  Comments Off on ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12
Jul 112012
 


ZC 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

7/11/2012 World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) – Corn (0230 HI time / 0830 EDT)
Forecast: n/a
Actual: n/a
SPIKE/REVERSE
Started @ 726.00 – 0229
1st Peak @ 746.75 – 0233 (4 min)
83 ticks

Reversal to 727.75 – 0254 (25 min)
76 ticks

Notes: Report Reaction caused a large long spike of 83 ticks over 4 min, crossing no SMAs, but the R2 – R3 Pivots. It peaked 33 ticks above the R3 Pivot, so no real resistance was encountered. Prior to the report, the market had been trending upward, but still just breaking out of a very tight range as the HOD and LOD were only separated by 25 ticks before the HOD was extended. With JOBB, you would have filled long at 728.50 with 3 ticks of slippage, then had an opportunity to exit with at least 40 ticks at the R3 level as it eclipsed the R3 Pivot then sought out much more. It reversed for 76 ticks in the next 21 min, eclipsing the R2 Pivot and nearly reaching the 100 SMA. After that it bounced up to the R3 Pivot, fell again to the 100 SMA, came back up to the R3 Pivot, then became sandwiched between the R3 Pivot and 100 SMA.

ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

 10y Bond Auction  Comments Off on ZB 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12
Jul 112012
 


CL 12 12 (1 Min) 07.11.12

07/11/2012 30-yr Bond Auction (0701 HI time / 1301 EDT)
Previous: 2.72/2.4
Actual: 2.58/2.7
SPIKE WITH 2ND PEAK
Started @ 152’06 (0701)
1st Peak @ 152’12 – 0703 (2 min)
6 ticks

Reversal to 152’05 – 0709 (8 min)
7 ticks

2nd Peak @ 152’16 – 0730 (29 min)
10 ticks

Reversal to 152’10 – 0750 (49 min)
6 ticks

Notes: Report is scheduled on Forex Factory at the top of the hour, but the spike always breaks 1 min late. The highest yield of 2.58 is the lowest in years, indicating high demand for the bonds with the dollar and equities unattractive. This caused a relatively tame reaction for the bonds, as the yield rose by only 6 ticks peaking at the start of the :03 bar. With JOBB you would fill long at 152’09, just above the 200/100 SMAs, then have seen arresting upward movement as it stalled 2 ticks above the fill. With the HOD 1 tick higher, the next bar rose to touch it, then fell. Close out with 1-3 ticks as it flirts with the HOD. After the 1st peak was achieved, it retreated to the origin, then traded sideways before the :28 – :30 bars climbed to a 2nd peak of only 10 ticks. The reversal was able to retreat to the 50 SMA for 6 ticks before rising again. All in all a relatively dull auction even with the record low yield.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries